MLB Opening Day Power Rankings 2023

Welcome to the first installment of Just Baseball Power Rankings for the 2023 season! Twice a month for the next six months, I’ll be ranking all 30 teams in the sport. It’s a daunting undertaking, but I think it’s going to be fun – as long as you all agree not to roast me so hard when I rank your favorite team too low.

Before I get started, I want to outline the methodology I’m going to be using and the philosophy behind it. This won’t impact the first ranking, since the season hasn’t started yet, but it will be important once the games get underway.

Methodology

In my humble opinion, power rankings need to do three things: reflect the season to date, consider the future, and place particular emphasis on the recent past. In other words, I want my rankings to reflect the results on the field, but I’m not just here to rehash the standings. Furthermore, because I’m writing a new ranking every other week, I’m going to place some extra focus on the games that took place over the previous fourteen days.

This means my power rankings will be based on three factors: (1) how well each team has performed thus far, (2) how well each team has performed in the past two weeks, and (3) how well I believe each team will perform for the rest of the season. For example, if the Nationals open the season 6-0, I’ll bump them up a few spots, but they’re still going to be in the bottom third. Similarly, if the Padres lose their first six in a row, they’re going to drop several places, but I imagine they’ll remain in the top tier.

One final note: these rankings are about the quality of each team, not their postseason odds or potential win-loss records. Thus, I have the Phillies ranked ahead of the Cardinals, even though I think the Cardinals are going to win more games and have a better chance of making the playoffs. I believe the Phillies are a better team, but they play in a much more competitive division.

1. San Diego Padres (2022 Record: 89-73)

Projected 2023 Record: 90-72 (FanGraphs), 93-69 (PECOTA)

Following a huge offseason, the Padres are ready to take the league by storm. They’ve added superstar shortstop Xander Bogaerts to an already potent offense, and they’ll be getting another huge upgrade soon when Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from his suspension. It’s not inconceivable that the Padres could have four MVP candidates at the top of their lineup; the ceiling for this team is through the roof.

The only thing that could hold the Padres back is the back end of the rotation, but they have enough pitching depth to make it work. If all else fails, you can be damn well sure A.J. Preller will be aggressive at the trade deadline once again.

Read: San Diego Padres 2023 Season Preview

2. Houston Astros (2022 Record: 106-56)

Projected 2023 Record: 89-73 (FanGraphs), 94-68 (PECOTA)

The reigning champion Houston Astros lost a Cy Young atop their rotation, and they still might be the best team in the American League. That’s how deep their roster is. The Astros have six MLB-caliber arms for the rotation, and the bullpen is loaded from top to bottom.

Losing Jose Altuve for the first two months is going to hurt as well, but this team still has three potential MVP candidates in Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. They also added a former MVP to man first base, and the addition of José Abreu further strengthens what was already a dangerous lineup.

Read: Houston Astros 2023 Season Preview

3. Atlanta Braves (2022 Record: 101-61)

Projected 2023 Record: 92-70 (FanGraphs), 91-71 (PECOTA)

The Atlanta Braves won the World Series in 2021. They won 101 games and a fifth straight division title in 2022. Yet somehow, they look better than ever heading into 2023.

Sean Murphy was a major addition this offseason, improving the team on both sides of the ball. The Braves are also planning to get full seasons out of Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Spencer Strider. Finally, if Ronald Acuña Jr. can return to MVP-caliber form, Atlanta might just have the deepest lineup in the game.

Read: Atlanta Braves 2023 Season Preview

4. New York Yankees (2022 Record: 99-63)

Projected 2023 Record: 91-71 (FanGraphs), 96-66 (PECOTA)

The Yankees have a powerful lineup, and they’re going to score plenty of runs. Aaron Judge is a force to be reckoned with, and he is surrounded by the likes of DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton.

The big question for this team is whether or not the rotation will stay healthy enough to be a true strength. The staff took a major hit when Frankie Montas underwent shoulder surgery, and now Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino are nursing injuries as well. If those two can make a speedy recovery, the Yankees could have the best starting rotation in baseball. If either misses serious time, it will be tough for New York to recover.

Read: New York Yankees 2023 Season Preview

5. New York Mets (2022 Record: 101-61)

Projected 2023 Record: 89-73 (FanGraphs), 94-68 (PECOTA)

The Mets have been making headlines all offseason, but somehow I think they’re actually a little underrated. The collective age of their starting rotation is a reasonable concern, but that concern is distracting from the fact that the Mets could also have one of the greatest rotations of the modern era. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are still in Cy Young shape, and don’t overlook Kodai Senga, who has a 2.59 career ERA in NPB.

Beyond the rotation, the Mets have a potent lineup too. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor both finished in the top 10 for the NL MVP last season, while Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Starling Marte are All-Star-level talents. The Mets don’t have a single weak link in the starting nine.

Read: New York Mets 2023 Season Preview

6. Toronto Blue Jays (2022 Record: 92-70)

Projected 2023 Record: 89-73 (FanGraphs), 89-73 (PECOTA)

The Blue Jays have an incredible offense. The lineup is overflowing with talent, and even the bench will be stocked with above-average big league hitters.

The rotation is where the real questions lie. It’s up for debate if either Alek Manoah or Kevin Gausman is a true ace. It’s also hard to know what to expect from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi after their down years in 2022. If Manoah or Gausman can take the next step forward, and if Berríos and Kikuchi can return to form, the Blue Jays will be nasty on both sides of the ball. If not, at least the offense will mash, and the strong outfield defense will help to keep opposing lineups at bay.

Read: Toronto Blue Jays 2023 Season Preview

7. Los Angeles Dodgers (2022 Record: 111-51)

Projected 2023 Record: 87-75 (FanGraphs), 94-68 (PECOTA)

Don’t count out the Dodgers. Ever. It’s a mantra that bears repeating.

The Dodgers had a quiet offseason, and it seems they lost more than they gained. Trea Turner is gone, Gavin Lux is out for the season, and the biggest new additions are Miguel Rojas and J.D. Martinez. Even so, the Dodgers have earned the benefit of the doubt. Presumably, they have big plans for new acquisitions like Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and Jason Heyward and high hopes for prospects like Miguel Vargas and James Outman. Oh, and let’s not forget this is still the team of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Clayton Kershaw.

Read: Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Season Preview

8. Tampa Bay Rays (2022 Record: 86-76)

Projected 2023 Record: 87-75 (FanGraphs), 87-75 (PECOTA)

The Rays, like the Dodgers, are a team you should never underestimate. Their offseason wasn’t particularly eventful, but they signed Zach Eflin to replace Corey Kluber in the rotation and traded Ji-Man Choi to free up space for more intriguing young players in the lineup.

What the Rays are counting on this year is health. Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, the two most important hitters on the roster, played a combined 148 games last year. If they can stay healthy and double that number, that’s as meaningful of an upgrade as signing an All-Star in free agency. The Rays are also hoping to get 20+ starts out of Tyler Glasnow, which would be another massive upgrade. It will make a significant difference if Glasnow can recover from his strained oblique in time to give Tampa 120+ innings.

Read: Tampa Bay Rays 2023 Season Preview

9. Philadelphia Phillies (2022 Record: 87-75)

Projected 2023 Record: 84-78 (FanGraphs), 89-73 (PECOTA)

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a tough spot after losing first baseman Rhys Hoskins to an ACL tear. Bryce Harper is already on the injured list recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery, so Philadelphia’s offense won’t be nearly as powerful as it was supposed to be.

However, this team still has plenty of star power and several young players who can step up to fill in the gaps. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are perennial Cy Young candidates, and Trea Turner is among the pre-season favorites for NL MVP. J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, Kyle Schwarber is the reigning NL home run king, and José Alvarado is one of the nastiest left-handed relievers in the game.

If young guys like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Andrew Painter, and Darick Hall can take a few steps forward, this team will be dangerous. If not, they’ll just have to hope Harper returns as soon as humanly possible.

Read: Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Season Preview

10. St. Louis Cardinals (2022 Record: 93-69)

Projected 2023 Record: 85-77 (FanGraphs), 85-77 (PECOTA)

Yadier Molina’s presence in the clubhouse and behind the dish is irreplaceable, but Willson Contreras is certainly an upgrade at the plate. The Cardinals didn’t make any other major acquisitions, but they’ll benefit from getting full seasons out of Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Jordan Montgomery. They’re also hoping to get a healthy Jack Flaherty; this is a guy who received Cy Young and MVP votes in his last full season.

The Cardinals’ pitching staff won’t be a strength (they lack a true ace), but if they can piece together a capable rotation, their strong offense and elite defense can do the rest.

Read: St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Season Preview

11. Cleveland Guardians (2022 Record: 92-70)

Projected 2023 Record: 82-80 (FanGraphs), 88-74 (PECOTA)

The Guardians have a pretty high ceiling and a pretty high floor. José Ramírez and Shane Bieber are two of the best players in baseball, and with those two leading the charge, the Guardians can compete. Then, if last year’s breakout stars like Andrés Giménez, Steven Kwan, and Triston McKenzie continue to excel, the Guardians will be that much better.

A lot needs to go right if Cleveland is going to contend with the powerhouse teams in the AL East and AL West, but regardless, I’m confident the Guardians will be a good ballclub in 2023.

Read: Cleveland Guardians 2023 Season Preview

12. Minnesota Twins (2022 Record: 78-84)

Projected 2023 Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs), 88-74 (PECOTA)

Like the Guardians, the Twins have a respectable floor and a reasonably high ceiling, but for different reasons. Minnesota has a high floor because they have a ton of depth, especially in the starting rotation. They have a high ceiling because of Byron Buxton. If the injury-prone superstar can play a full, healthy season, the Twins are almost certainly the favorites in the AL Central. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done so since 2017.

Read: Minnesota Twins 2023 Season Preview

13. Seattle Mariners (2022 Record: 90-72)

Projected 2023 Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs), 83-79 (PECOTA)

The Mariners are the team I’m most concerned about underrating. After all, they won 90 games last year, and they’ve improved with the additions of Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong. However, as much as I love Julio Rodríguez, I’m not convinced by the rest of the team around him. The Mariners have plenty of good players but few great players, and that lack of star power could be their downfall.

Ultimately, I think Seattle has a high floor but a lower ceiling. They’ll earn a Wild Card spot if the teams around them flame out, but the Mariners will find themselves on the outside looking in if their competitors get hot.

Read: Seattle Mariners 2023 Season Preview

14. Milwaukee Brewers (2022 Record: 86-76)

Projected 2023 Record: 84-78 (FanGraphs), 87-75 (PECOTA)

The Brewers have a great rotation, but they might have the worst lineup of every contending team. In this regard, they’re sort of the opposites of their division rivals; the Cardinals have a dominant lineup, but their starting rotation is middling at best.

Milwaukee has a few solid hitters atop the order but no one who can truly strike fear in an opposing pitcher. It’s not a deep lineup either, with guys like Garrett Mitchell, Brian Anderson, and Brice Turang projected to hit in the seven, eight, and nine holes.

The Brewers can contend this season, but they’ll need Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff to do the heavy lifting.

Read: Milwaukee Brewers 2023 Season Preview

15. Texas Rangers (2022 Record: 68-94)

Projected 2023 Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs), 79-83 (PECOTA)

Confession incoming: I really want the Rangers to be good. I loved what they did last offseason, signing two marquee free agents before their “competitive window” had technically opened. I love what they did this offseason even more, putting together a high-variance rotation that could be one of the best in baseball or could totally crash and burn. It’s an exciting way to build a team.

The bottom of the order leaves much to be desired, as does the bullpen, but if the stars play like stars, the Rangers are going to contend in the AL Wild Card race.

Read: Texas Rangers 2023 Season Preview

16. Los Angeles Angels (2022 Record: 73-89)

Projected 2023 Record: 84-78 (FanGraphs), 96-76 (PECOTA)

Perry Minasian was hard at work this winter, putting together a solid roster to complement his superstars. New additions like Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, and Tyler Anderson aren’t game-changers in and of themselves, but they’re talented enough players that Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout won’t have to do everything themselves this year.

If Trout and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, this Angels team is going to be better than they’ve been in a long time. They’ll have to be if they want to convince Ohtani to stick around.

Read: Los Angels Angels 2023 Season Preview

17. San Francisco Giants (2022 Record: 81-81)

Projected 2023 Record: 82-80 (FanGraphs), 80-82 (PECOTA)

The Giants are light on star power but loaded with depth. Thus, for this team to succeed, everyone needs to carry their weight. If Michael Conforto comes back healthy, Mitch Haniger recovers quickly from a strained oblique, and Joey Bart takes a big step forward, this lineup can score some runs. If Logan Webb continues to impress, Ross Stripling maintains his performance from last season, and Sean Manaea bounces back from a sub-par 2022 campaign, the rotation is going to be a strength.

Thus, if everything goes right, the Giants could be dark horse contenders for the final Wild Card spot. The odds aren’t exactly in their favor, but hey, it’s happened before.

Read: San Francisco Giants 2023 Season Preview

18. Chicago White Sox (2022 Record: 81-81)

Projected 2023 Record: 80-82 (FanGraphs), 80-82 (PECOTA)

The White Sox are only contenders because they play in the AL Central. It’s more likely they finish below .500 than they end up in the postseason. Simply put, they’re counting on too many things to go right in order to field a competitive team. Yasmani Grandal and Lucas Giolito need to bounce back. Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiménez, and Luis Robert Jr. must stay healthy. Lance Lynn needs to remain effective in his age-35 season. It’s a lot to ask.

Read: Chicago White Sox 2023 Season Preview

19. Boston Red Sox (2022 Record: 78-84)

Projected 2023 Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs), 80-82 (PECOTA)

Any hopes the Red Sox have are hinging on a couple of oft-injured stars. If Chris Sale can make 30 starts and pitch like the Chris Sale of old, the Red Sox might be able to squeak their way into the Wild Card conversation. If Trevor Story can make it back before the year is up, Boston’s chances improve.

On the other hand, if Sale can’t pitch like he did in the good old days and Story languishes on the injured list, there isn’t much hope for the Red Sox. Rafael Devers is terrific, but he can’t do everything alone.

Read: Boston Red Sox 2023 Season Preview

20. Miami Marlins (2022 Record: 69-93)

Projected 2023 Record: 80-82 (FanGraphs), 79-83 (PECOTA)

The Marlins are going to be fun, but I can’t say they’ll be good. Luis Arraez and Jean Segura will improve the offense, but this team still lacks power. What’s more, the defense is a big ol’ question mark; several players are moving to positions they’ve never handled full-time.

The starting rotation will be Miami’s strength once again, but that’s less of a sure thing without Pablo López. Edward Cabrera is inexperienced, Jesús Luzardo has never pitched a full season, Trevor Rogers struggled in his sophomore campaign, and Johnny Cueto is hoping to defy the aging curve at 37 years old. Sandy Alcantara is dominant, but even an arm as durable as Sandy’s can only pitch once every five days.

Read: Miami Marlins 2023 Season Preview

21. Chicago Cubs (2022 Record: 74-88)

Projected 2023 Record: 75-87 (FanGraphs), 76-86 (PECOTA)

The Cubs made a big splash this winter, signing Dansby Swanson to a long-term contract, but they’re not quite ready to challenge the Cardinals and Brewers. Swanson and Nico Hoerner will make a terrific defensive tandem in the middle infield, but Ian Happ is the only other impact bat in the lineup. Unless Cody Bellinger rediscovers his MVP form, this team isn’t going to score enough runs.

The Cubs are also in need of star power on the mound. Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski are intriguing young arms, but Chicago doesn’t have a bona fide ace – Marcus Stroman is starting on Opening Day. They also don’t have a closer; Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger are the biggest names at the back of the ‘pen.

Read: Chicago Cubs 2023 Season Preview

22. Arizona Diamondbacks (2022 Record: 74-88)

Projected 2023 Record: 78-84 (FanGraphs), 75-87 (PECOTA)

The California clubs are dominating the headlines, but the Diamondbacks deserve some attention in the NL West. Corbin Carroll is going to be a star this year, and Gabriel Moreno isn’t far behind him. Ketel Marte is an All-Star talent when he’s healthy, and Christian Walker is a top-5 first baseman in the National League. However, the rest of the lineup isn’t so impressive – hence the no. 22 ranking.

On the pitching side, Zac Gallen is a genuine ace, but I’m not entirely sold on Merrill Kelly as a legitimate no. 2 starter. I’m also not sold on Madison Bumgarner as a legitimate major league pitcher anymore. If the Diamondbacks are going to win more than they lose, they need Bumgarner to bounce back and one of their top pitching prospects (Ryne Nelson or Brandon Pfaadt) to make an impact.

Read: Arizona Diamondbacks 2023 Season Preview

23. Baltimore Orioles (2022 Record: 83-79)

Projected 2023 Record: 78-84 (FanGraphs), 75-87 (PECOTA)

The Orioles lineup is better than you think it is, and Adley Rutschman is already one of the best players in the American League (he’s my way-too-early pick for AL MVP). The pitching staff, on the other hand, is even worse than you remember. Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are competent no. 5 starters, but they shouldn’t be leading a rotation. The Orioles will be better off once top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is promoted, but he won’t start the season with the big league club.

Meanwhile, the bullpen will be hard-pressed to reproduce their good fortune from the 2022 season. Félix Bautista is the real deal, but there are too many question marks behind him, and the depth is lacking.

Read: Baltimore Orioles 2023 Season Preview

24. Pittsburgh Pirates (2022 Record: 62-100)

Projected 2023 Record: 74-88 (FanGraphs), 72-90 (PECOTA)

I’m a fan of what the Pirates did this offseason. Ben Cherington knows his team isn’t quite ready to contend, but he also knows that if everything breaks right, the Pirates could be this year’s Orioles. Thus, he picked up several capable veterans to surround his talented young core. With guys like Andrew McCutchen, Ji-Man Choi, and Carlos Santana in the fold, Pittsburgh has a higher floor than most rebuilding clubs. They should be much better than they were last season, and a .500 record isn’t totally out of the question.

Read: Pittsburgh Pirates 2023 Season Preview

25. Detroit Tigers (2022 Record: 66-96)

Projected 2023 Record: 72-90 (FanGraphs), 65-97 (PECOTA)

The Tigers don’t have enough talent to compete, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they won about 80 games. This team will surprise if Javy Báez bounces back, Spencer Torkelson breaks out, and Riley Greene builds off a solid rookie season. The pitching staff lacks upside, but all five starters have the potential to be capable mid-rotation arms.

Read: Detroit Tigers 2023 Season Preview

26. Cincinnati Reds (2022 Record: 62-100)

Projected 2023 Record: 69-93 (FanGraphs), 70-93 (PECOTA)

Here’s some advice: if you want to seem really smart six months from now, make a prediction that the Reds are going to win the NL Central. You will almost certainly be wrong, but no one will care or remember. However, on the off chance the Reds do win the division, you can bring out the receipts and you’ll look like a genius.

What am I getting at here? The Reds don’t have good odds this season. But of all the basement dwellers, I think they have the best chance to pull off an upset. The NL Central is the weakest division in the NL, and the Reds have enough talent that an upset isn’t totally inconceivable. If Jonathan India bounces back, Joey Votto makes a healthy return, and Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo take a big step forward, this team could make some noise.

But, like, probably not too much noise. They’re still ranked 26th, after all.

Read: Cincinnati Reds 2023 Season Preview

27. Kansas City Royals (2022 Record: 65-97)

Projected 2023 Record: 73-89 (FanGraphs), 64-98 (PECOTA)

The Royals don’t have high hopes for the upcoming season, but at least they have some talented young players who could help them play spoiler in the AL Central race. Vinnie Pasquantino can really hit, and Brady Singer can really pitch. It’s not enough to make a competitive ballclub, but the Royals won’t be totally unwatchable in 2023.

Read: Kansas City Royals 2023 Season Preview

28. Colorado Rockies (2022 Record: 68-94)

Projected 2023 Record: 67-95 (FanGraphs), 65-97 (PECOTA)

Barring a miracle, the Rockies are not going to finish around .500, as owner Dick Monfort predicted. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kris Bryant is the only good hitter in the lineup, and even he has something to prove after missing almost all of the 2022 season. The starting rotation is abysmal, and there’s a good chance Germán Márquez is traded at the deadline, further depleting the team’s pitching depth.

Read: Colorado Rockies 2023 Season Preview

29. Oakland Athletics (2022 Record: 60-102)

Projected 2023 Record: 71-91 (FanGraphs), 65-97 (PECOTA)

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the projections for the Athletics. This team already looks bad, and they’re going to get even worse once the trade deadline rolls around. Veterans like Tony Kemp, Ramón Laureano, and Trevor May could all be dealt this summer.

On the bright side, the top of the rotation could be fun to watch in Oakland. Top prospect Kyle Muller will take the Opening Day start, and NPB pitcher Shintaro Fujinami is a name to keep an eye on as he makes his MLB debut.

Read: Oakland Athletics 2023 Season Preview

30. Washington Nationals (2022 Record: 55-107)

Projected 2023 Record: 67-95 (FanGraphs), 61-101 (PECOTA)

The Nationals are going to be awful. There are no two ways about it, and there isn’t a nicer way to put it. The lineup is meager, the defensive alignment looks atrocious, and the rotation will only be watchable if Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore both take a big step forward.

Read: Washington Nationals 2023 Season Preview