Top 10 Remaining Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions

A look at the top 10 remaining free agents who have not signed, with predictions on the contract and landing spots for each player.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 27: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros gives a thumbs up to fans prior to a game against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 27, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 27: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros gives a thumbs up to fans prior to a game against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 27, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

We are less than two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, and yet so many players are left without homes in free agency.

Since the last time we updated this post, we have seen more movement in the relief market, with Carlos Estevez most notably finding a home. Max Scherzer found the seventh team he will play for in his career when he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Along with Scherzer, two other Scott Boras clients (and former Padres) found new homes, as Jurickson Profar is now a Brave, and Ha-Seong Kim is now a Ray.

That still leaves Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman as the two big fish still waiting to ink their new deals, along with starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta.

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When we first began the exercise of ranking the top free agents this offseason and predicting where they would end up, there were 20 names on our list. Since then, 17 of those 20 free agents have signed new deals (Alonso, Bregman, and Flaherty being the exceptions).

In this list, you will find predictions for each of the top free agents on the market. To round out this group, we have consistently been adding names with more predictions, adding seven other players to fill out our new top 10 remaining free agents on the market.

For a recap of all the deals that have taken place, with the predictions made before their signing scroll beyond our top 10 at the bottom of this article.

Honorable Mention: J.D. Martinez, DH

2024 Stats: .235/.320/.406, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 108 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: 37

Contract Prediction: One-year, $5 million with incentives

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Team Prediction: San Diego Padres

Finding a team a contract value for J.D. Martinez was a near impossible task. Last year, it was not until March 24th that Martinez found a new home with the Mets.

Most teams already have a plan in place for DH, including the Mets, who re-signed Jesse Winker on a one-year deal. Winker took at-bats away from Martinez down the stretch, as J.D. struggled mightily in September and into October.

With all of that said, Martinez still has strong batted-ball data, ranking in the 86th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%, while ranking in the 77th and 78th percentile respectively in HardHit% and Average Exit Velocity.

If Martinez wants to extend his career, and play for a contender, maybe there is a place for him in the Padres lineup. San Diego is clearly strapped for cash, and they have a hole to fill at DH. Maybe Martinez takes a discount based on his past earnings to play for the Padres.

For more J.D. Martinez landing spots, check out our article here.

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10. Paul DeJong, SS/3B

2024 Stats: .227/.276/.427, 24 HR, 56 RBI, 95 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: One-year, $5 million

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

DeJong is not a perfect player (32.4% K-rate in 2024), but he’s at least a quality big leaguer who could help most teams in the infield next season.

The 31-year-old made the most of the playing time he got with the Chicago White Sox last season, hitting 18 home runs before the trade deadline. He doesn’t play great defense at short, but can still plug that gap (-9 DRS, -1 OAA) well enough for a team that doesn’t have a better answer.

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Where he does play great defense however, albeit in a limited sample size, is third base.

After his solid start to the season in Chicago, DeJong was dealt to the Kansas City Royals, where he played third base next to MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. Across 30 games and 28 starts at the hot corner, DeJong raked up 3 DRS and 6 OAA.

The strikeout rate spiked in Kansas City and the power dipped, but DeJong was still nearly a two-win player last season on a $1.75 million contract. He’s due for a raise and should look for an opportunity to play, and Washington could be a great place to find both.

The Nationals were reportedly in on Gleyber Torres to slide over to third base for them, but Torres chose to stick at second and play in Detroit instead.

DeJong would represent a big upgrade over José Tena as the Opening Day third baseman and can be moved around the diamond wherever the Nationals see fit to make room for any of their young talent that forces playing time.

If things break great for DeJong and bad for the Nationals, they can always flip him for a prospect to a contender at the deadline.

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9. Jose Iglesias, UTIL

2024 Stats: .337/.381/.448, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 137 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: 35

Contract Prediction: One-year, $6 million

Team Prediction: Athletics

MIAMI, FLORIDA – JULY 19: Jeff McNeil #1 of the New York Mets () celebrates with teammate Jose Iglesias #11 (R) after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the sixth inning of the game at loanDepot park on July 19, 2024 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

When you think about the vibes for the 2024 New York Mets, Jose Iglesias was the face of them. The pop star sparked the Mets run with his OMG anthem and quickly became a huge leader and presence in the Mets clubhouse.

It would make sense to predict that he would return to New York, but he plays a position where the Mets have plenty of depth. Jeff McNeil is slated to be the Opening Day second baseman, and behind him the Mets have a budding young infielder in Luisangel Acuna.

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Whether Acuna will hit at the big league level is still to be determined, but he’s at least capable of playing strong defense at all three positions. The Mets also worked Brett Baty at second base after his demotion last season, have a former top prospect Ronny Mauricio coming off an ACL injury, and their current top overall position player prospect in a middle infielder in Jett Williams.

While Iglesias likely wants to return, the Mets brass may decide it is best to leave opportunities for their young infielders, making OMG a one-hit wonder at Citi Field.

Still, Iglesias was a 2.5 fWAR player in basically half a season. Someone should give him the opportunity to play, and maybe even everyday to start the season.

For those of you who are unaware, the now Sacramento Athletics have been put in the position of surprising spender this offseason, as they are forced to reach a payroll of $105 million to avoid a grievance with the MLBPA due to their lack of spending.

Even after signing Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million deal, the Athletics could have as much as $50 million to spend on their 2025 payroll, giving them a chance to be competitive for the first time in a long time.

Prioritizing pitching was a smart move, which is why the Severino signing made so much sense. Spending $8 million on a 35-year-old infielder who signed on a minor league deal just a year ago might not seem like as wise of an investment, but leadership is worth spending on when you have a young core and money to burn.

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The A’s have a 22-year-old shortstop right now with Jacob Wilson, who is their top prospect and was the sixth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Wilson ended the year on the big league roster, and should get plenty of run throughout the 2025 season.

With that said, having Iglesias in place to make him earn the job in spring training is not the worst thing, and Zac Gelof could benefit from that same healthy competition at second base. Gio Urshela is currently slated to play third base, but Iglesias could spare him there as well.

It’s a lot of money to spend on a utility infielder, but Iglesias bring a lot to the table to a team that is searching for an identity in a minor league ballpark in 2025. Maybe he can kick in concerts on Friday nights to earn his keep even more for that $8 million.

Here are more landing spots for Jose Iglesias.

8. Kyle Gibson, SP

2024 Stats: 8-8, 4.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 30 GS, 169.2 IP, 151 K, 1.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: 37

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Contract Prediction: One-year, $12 million

Team Prediction: Athletics

Let’s keep spending that A’s money!

Explaining the fit for Iglesias required much more of a narrative. This one is simple.

The A’s should take their money and buy as many quality MLB innings as they can, and Kyle Gibson can provide them. He’ll take the ball every fifth day and your team will have a chance to win on a good portion of them. When he doesn’t, he will save the bullpen by wearing it on occasion as well.

Look up at the end of the season and a $12 million investment got you 160 innings of a mid 4.00’s ERA. It feels like a no-brainer that the A’s will add at least one of the veteran starters left, whether it’s Gibson or one of the names coming up.

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7. Jose Quintana, SP

2024 Stats: 10-10, 3.75 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 31 GS, 170.1 IP, 135 K, 1.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 36

Contract Prediction: One-year, $13 million

Original Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

New Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Six of the remaining top 20 free agents are starting pitchers. One of them cleared 170 innings pitched last year, and that’s Jose Quintana.

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There were times last year where the 35-year-old looked like father time was catching up to him, posting a 7.20 ERA in five starts in May, and a 5.63 ERA in six starts in August. Still, every time when Quintana endured a rough stretch, he bounced back with a great one.

The final run for Quintana was the most impressive, where he pitched to an MLB-best 0.74 ERA across his final six starts from August 25th through the end of the season.

He rode that momentum into October, where he hurled 11 scoreless innings across his first two playoff starts, which both were series-clinching victories for the Mets in their path to the NLCS.

An argument can be made that outside of Jack Flaherty, nobody else on this list is coming off a better season than Jose Quintana. Contending teams who need pitching should be lining up to sign him to a one-year deal.

Since the Blue Jays can use some more pitching, and seem to be in line to spend, they make logical sense as a landing spot for Quintana.

More landing spots for Jose Quintana can be found here.

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UPDATE: After the Toronto Blue Jays signed Max Scherzer, it would appear that they no longer have a hole to fill in their starting rotation. The Braves however could still use a starting pitcher.

6. David Robertson, RP

2024 Stats: 3.00 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 2 SV, 68 G, 72 IP, 99 K, 1.9 fWAR

Age in 2025: 40

Contract Prediction: One-year, $11.5 million

Original Team Prediction: Kansas City Royals

New Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

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In 2019, David Robertson went down with an injury for really the first time in his career, needing Tommy John surgery at 34 years old. The surgery kept him off the mound for most of 2019, all of 2020 and limited him to just 12 innings pitched in 2021.

The following year, Robertson enjoyed a renaissance of sorts, pitching to a 2.30 ERA as the Chicago Cubs closer, before being moved at the deadline to the Philadelphia Phillies. Robertson played a role in the Phillies World Series run, allowing just one run across eight playoff appearances.

Robertson has since pitched for the Mets, Marlins and last year, spent the season with the Texas Rangers. Despite a rough stretch in Miami, where he pitched to 5.06 ERA in 21 1/3 innings pitched, Robertson has pitched to a 2.82 ERA across 201 innings pitched over the past three seasons.

Any team could use a dependable arm like Robertson setting up their closer at the back of the bullpen. Especially since he can always fill in as the closer in a pinch, whenever need be.

More landing spots for David Robertson can be found here.

UPDATE: Our original prediction was for the Royals to sign David Robertson to a one-year, $11.5 million deal. Instead, the Royals spent that money on Carlos Esteves, inking the closer to a two-year, $22 million deal, with a $2 million buyout on a third-year $13 million club option.

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Robertson could really fit any team who needs some relief help but is likely looking to latch on with a contender. The Braves fit that billing, it’s just a matter of wheter they are willing to spend for a reliever of Roberton’s caliber.

5. Randal Grichuk, OF

2024 Stats: .291/.348/.528, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 139 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: 33

Contract Prediction: One-year, $12 million

Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Randal Grichuk of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 07: Randal Grichuk #15 of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 07, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images)

Last year, Randal Grichuk signed a one-year, $2 million contract to be Joc Pederson’s platoon partner in Arizona for the Diamondbacks. Grichuk was expected to handle the short-side of the platoon, with most of his at-bats coming against left-handed pitching.

Grichuk thrived in the role, crushing lefties to the tune of a .319/.386/.528 slash line, with a 151 wRC+ across 184 plate appearances.

While he saw righties sparingly, Grichuk even fared well in those at-bats as well, hitting six of his 12 home runs against right-handers, posting a 116 wRC+ across 95 plate appearances. On top of the offensive success, Grichuk was solid in both of the corner outfield spots as well.

This is one of the more underrated free agents left on the market, who could thrive in a platoon role again, or could even take on an everyday role for a team that lacks outfield depth.

Looking specifically at another DH platoon, Grichuk would be the perfect partner for Masataka Yoshida and the Boston Red Sox. It’s not a move that would get fans excited compared to a potential Alex Bregman signing, but it would be adding a much-needed right-handed bat into the fold.

Check out more landing spots for Grichuk here.

Actual Contract: Signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Nick Pivetta, SP

2024 Stats: 6-12, 4.14 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 172 K, 2.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Two years, $40 million, with an opt-out

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

With top free agent starters Corbin Burnes, Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler all coming off the board in this update, the market for starting pitching is starting to get thin. Outside of Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta now stands out as the top free agent starter left for teams looking for rotation help.

Pivetta is three years older than Flaherty and has been saddled by the qualifying offer, so his market may be thinner in comparison, but there should still be plenty of teams that are interested in signing him for the 2025 season.

If Pivetta did not have the QO attached, he probably would have enjoyed one of the healthiest markets in free agency, as the right-hander has great strikeout stuff that would lead many teams to buy into his upside as a starting pitcher.

Along with his strong K-rate (28.9%) and low walk-rate (6.1%), Pivetta has eclipsed 140 innings pitched in each of the last four seasons with the Red Sox. With innings being a commodity in today’s game, Pivetta’s floor of durability, matched with his ceiling is very appealing.

The downside to Pivetta is the fact that he has not finished any of the last four seasons with an ERA under 4.00, and teams will have to forfeit draft capital to sign him.

If there is one team that might be desperate enough to not care about the draft capital at this stage of the offseason, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have struck out on most major free agents, with a lot of their pursued targets having been attached to the QO.

There is every chance that Pivetta is forced to take a one-year deal, very similar to the contract signed by Walker Buehler, which was for the exact same amount as the $21.05 million qualifying offer.

With that said, Pivetta might be able to get a 1+1 contract to provide him some extra security on a two-year deal with an opt-out, just due to the lack of other options on the market.

For more landing spots for Nick Pivetta, click here.

UPDATE: Now that the Toronto Blue Jays have signed Max Scherzer, it is unlikely that they will sign Pivetta. Unfortunately for Pivetta, the qualifying offer has clearly dampened his market, making it very hard to predict where he will sign at this point.

We are leaving Toronto for now, not because we think he signs there, but because we have no best guess on where he might land.

3. Jack Flaherty, SP (Original Rank: 10)

2024 Stats: 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 28 GS, 162 IP, 194 K, 3.2 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Five years, $100 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

New Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Jack Flaherty of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees during Game One of the 2024 World Series at Dodger Stadium.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 25: Jack Flaherty #0 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees during Game One of the 2024 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 25, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Jack Flaherty is in a similar free agent tier as the two names above him on this list, Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea. Where Flaherty has the edge, however, is the fact that he does not have a qualifying offer attached, since he was traded mid-season.

Flaherty just turned 29 years old in October, giving him every chance to sign at least a five-year deal in free agency.

The right-hander’s track record is mixed, as he is only a year removed from pitching to a 4.99 ERA in 2023. But a great contract year split between the Tigers and Dodgers has Flaherty in line for a big payday.

UPDATE: Now that Corbin Burnes and Sean Manaea have each signed in free agency, Jack Flaherty has become the clear top arm left on the market. The only question now is where is he going to land and for how much?

The original prediction of Flaherty signing with the Angels could always come to fruition, but we are going to change things up now and focus on one of the teams who lost out in the Burnes sweepstakes.

It has been reported that the Giants were one of the finalists to land Burnes, but missed out when he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. After reportedly offering over $210 million to sign Burnes, the Giants could potentially take half of that money and use it towards signing Flaherty instead.

For more free-agent landing spots for Flaherty, click here.

Actual Contract: Signed a two-year, $35 million deal with the Detroit Tigers

2. Pete Alonso, 1B * (Original Rank: 7)

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Six years, $140 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

Pete Alonso of the New York Mets is one of the top pending free agents. Here, he rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during Game Three of the Wild Card Series at American Family Field on October 03, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. His home run pushed the Mets into the next round of the playoffs. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 03: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during Game Three of the Wild Card Series at American Family Field on October 03, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Since making his debut in 2019, only one player in Major League Baseball has hit more home runs than Pete Alonso. That player is Aaron Judge.

Meanwhile, no one has driven in more runs than Alonso.

Alonso is a consistent source of power, where you can almost pencil him in for 40 home runs and 100 RBIs each year. Alonso cleared both of those marks in 2022 and 2023, but failed to reach those marks in 2024.

The soon-to-be 30-year-old hit “just” 34 home runs in his contract year, with “only” 88 RBIs. Those numbers were less than we’ve come to expect for the Polar Bear, but some big moments in October surely made up for his relatively lackluster regular season.

Alonso hit a massive come-from-behind home run against Devin Williams to help the Mets advance in the NL Wild Card round and went on to hit three more across a postseason run where he posted a .999 OPS. The biggest question now is if those moments where Alonso’s last in a Mets uniform.

The Mets landed the biggest fish on the market when they signed Juan Soto, but where does that leave their own biggest free agent?

Pete Alonso is still on the market and the Mets have yet to replace him in free agency or on the trade market. A return still seems like it could be in the cards, and his market has not really revealed itself otherwise. For now, we will keep him going back to New York.

For more Pete Alonso landing spots, check out our article here.

1. Alex Bregman, 3B * (Original Rank: 4)

2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 118 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $168 million

Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Recent reports indicate that Scott Boras is looking for Manny Machado money for Alex Bregman. Considering the fact that he is entering his age-31 season, getting a deal that spans a full decade would be a bit of a surprise.

Bregman has been a four-win player in each of the last three seasons. He has been a constant 25-HR threat, all while playing solid defense at third. With that said, teams can’t just ignore that Bregman’s walk rate was nearly cut in half this past year, from 12.7% to 6.9%.

This caused Bregman’s on-base percentage to drop by nearly 40 points.

Still, Bregman is the top third baseman on the market, who should have a healthy list of suitors. One of those suitors could be the Detroit Tigers, were Bregman would be reunited with his former manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers could use a veteran with Bregman’s winning pedigree to help them build off their outstanding second half push to a playoff berth in 2024. If Bregman ends up signing a six-year deal as we have projected, expect the AAV to be closer to $30 million a year than to $25 million.

The Houston Astros reportedly offered Alex Bregman a six-year, $156 million offer, but it was also reported that he is seeking over $200 million. With the Astros and Bregman nearly $50 million apart, they made a trade that sent Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for a third baseman in Isaac Parades.

They followed up that move by signing Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal, which all but closed the door to a return for Bregman.

Many teams make sense as a landing spot for Alex Bregman, and it may end up being a bigger market team, but I still like Tigers going all-in to get a player that can change their culture in Detroit.

Now when it comes to the contract, the Tigers might have to commit a seventh year to get Bregman to sign, and doing so at the AAV we laid out would get him close to $200 million. Still, we will stick with our original contract prediction for his market value, with him getting six years and $168 million.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents Who Already Signed

1. Juan Soto, OF *

2024 Stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 180 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 26

Contract Prediction: 15 years, $645 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

How do you put proper monetary value on a 26-year-old free agent who is a near-lock to be a top-five hitter in baseball for the better part of the next decade?

This is exactly what Juan Soto’s next team is trying to figure out right now, as they all submit offers to see if they can land a franchise-altering talent. Soto’s asking price was set last season when Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal.

Now beating Ohtani’s contract can come in many forms, thanks to the unprecedented nature of the $680 million in deferrals that Ohtani took. This brings the present day value of Ohtani’s deal to around $460 million according to the luxury tax, where he carries a hit of just over $46 million per year. Ohtani set the bar, but topping it can come in many forms.

Obviously is Scott Boras has his way, Soto will sign for $701 million, and grab the largest contract ever. However, when it comes to present day value, a contract that is $500 million will be the largest ever. Topping Ohtani’s $46.08 million AAV is another way for Soto to end up with the biggest deal.

My prediction of Soto signing a 15-year, $645 million deal, would break out to $43 million per year, which would trial Ohtani, but the present day value would trounce him by around $200 million.

Is Soto really worth an extra $200 million? When he gets five more years, yes he is.

The winning bid for Soto could very well come down to years, and ultimately the Mets might be the one team crazy enough to go to 15 years if it means getting their guy.

Actual Contract: 15 years, $765 million with the New York Mets on 12/08/2024

2. Corbin Burnes, SP *

2024 Stats: 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 32 GS, 194 1/3 IP, 181 K, 3.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $232 million

Original Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

*New Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Boston Red Sox need to make a splash this offseason, and they also need an ace.

Enter Corbin Burnes.

Burnes would give the Red Sox an ace who has become one of the best workhorses in the game, something they desperately need.

With Burnes, the Red Sox would have a veteran tone-setter in a rotation that includes plenty of rising young arms like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello.

Considering how righty-heavy their rotation is, Max Friend or Blake Snell could be more attractive to the Red Sox, but we already mocked those aces to other teams. Regardless, the Red Sox need to land one of these aces in free agency to really change the perception of them heading into 2025.

When it comes to the contract, Burnes’ nine-figure deal should be the one that starts with a 2, as he is expected to become the eighth pitcher in MLB history to receive a deal north of $200 million.

Expect Burnes to make at least $29 million per year over a seven-year deal ($203 million), although we have him getting an eighth year at that number for a grand total of $232 million.

UPDATE: We thought the Boston Red Sox might be in the market to acquire an ace this offseason, and acquire an ace they did. But instead of going to the top of the free agent market, the Red Sox used the depth in their farm system to grab the top arm on the trade block instead, Garrett Crochet.

Now the Red Sox could conceivably still sign Burnes, but it appears like there is a better landing spot on the West Coast instead. When the Giants introduced Willy Adames after signing him to his seven-year, $182 million deal, the shortstop was asked about his former Brewers teammate.

Adames let it be known he would be joining the recruiting efforts for Burnes, who would form an unbelievable one-two punch atop the Giants rotation with Logan Webb.

With Soto signed, Burnes is now the top free agent on the market. But with such a high price tag, there may only be a few teams that can afford his services.

Actual Contract: Reported Six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Willy Adames, SS *

2024 Stats: .251/.331/.462, 32 HR, 21 SB, 112 RBI, 119 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $192 million

Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The top free agent shortstop in the market may also be the top free agent third baseman, as reports have indicated that Willy Adames would be open to switching positions for the right teams.

Teams with incumbent shortstops like the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, or the New York Yankees could all look to Adames to play third, while others like the Braves may still want to keep him at short.

Regardless of where he lands, Adames is going to command a long-term deal that should come in beyond five years, with an AAV north of $20 million.

In the past, we have seen the Phillies use years to drive down the AAV of the best free agent contracts they have signed, such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

If the Phillies decide to trade Alec Bohm, as speculated, they could view Adames as an upgrade at third base. Or they could even move Turner to third, and start Adames at shortstop, where he would be an upgrade over Turner defensively.

An eight-year deal, at $24 million per year could land Adames with the Phillies.

Actual Contract: Seven years, $182 million with the San Francisco Giants on 12/07/2024

5. Blake Snell, SP

2024 Stats: 5-3, 3.12 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 20 GS, 104 IP, 145 K, 3.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Five years, $155 million

Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

We just talked about Blake Snell in our comparison between him and Max Fried. Snell was a free agent last year after winning the NL Cy Young in 2023. He could not land a long-term deal last time around, settling for a two-year deal with an opt-out with the San Francisco Giants.

While he struggled early on in his Giants tenure, Snell eventually figured it out, pitching to an MLB-best 1.23 ERA across his final 14 starts from July through the end of the season.

Teams have to understand at this point that they are getting one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball if they sign Snell, who has the benefit of being the one true ace with no qualifying offer attached, compared to Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

After not getting a long-term deal last time around, Snell should be looking for years this time around, and he should be getting paid at least $30 million per season. We have him going right back to the Giants but on a five-year deal worth over $150 million.

Actual Contract: Five years, $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers on 11/26/2024

Blake Snell is the first major domino to fall this offseason, landing with the Dodgers on a massive deal that will pay him $36.4 million a year (assuming there is no deferred money in the deal).

6. Max Fried, SP *

2024 Stats: 11-10, 3.25 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 29 GS, 174 1/3 IP, 166 K, 3.4 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Seven years, $190 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

If not for having the qualifying offer attached to him, Max Fried might be considered the second-best starting pitcher in this free agent class. Between Fried and Blake Snell, teams are picking between two electric southpaws, who can easily lead your rotation.

Snell has been a bit more dominant lately, and he does not come with a QO attached. But Fried has been as consistent as they come across his career.

Whoever lands Fried is getting a pitcher who has a 3.07 career ERA, who has eclipsed 165 innings pitched four times in the last five full seasons since 2019. If the Braves were going to keep Fried, it feels like they would have signed him to an extension by now.

Assuming he does walk, going to the best team in baseball would be a great landing spot for Fried, who should get at least six years and could exceed $30 million per year in free agency.

Actual Contract: Eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees

8. Anthony Santander, OF

2024 Stats: .235/.308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 129 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Five years, $110 million

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

If you are going to hit free agency, it is best to do it after a 44-home run campaign.

Anthony Santander has been a consistent source of power for the Baltimore Orioles throughout his career, but cleared 40 homers and 100 RBIs for the first time in his final year with the club.

Now, the Orioles have to decide whether they re-sign him or collect the qualifying offer compensation for letting him walk. Meanwhile, other teams will have to weigh his offensive prowess with his struggles defensively which could leave him as more of a DH than an outfielder long-term.

Still only 30 years old, Santander can look for a deal that is at least five years long in free agency, but teams may be wary of committing that many years to him.

Somebody has to take the Blue Jays money, right?

This was our original prediction that Anthony Santander was going to land with his former division rival and sign the Blue Jays, and it certainly seems like that could still be in the cards. If not Toronto, here are a few more landing spots that make sense for Santander.

Actual Contract: Five-year, $92.5 million, with the Toronto Blue Jays. Contract includes an opt-out after the third year and a corresponding club option that could take the deal to $110 million over six years.

9. Teoscar Hernández, OF *

2024 Stats: .272/.339/.501, 33 HR, 12 SB, 99 RBI, 134 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Four years, $85 million

Original Team Prediction: New York Yankees

*New Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Teoscar Hernandez hit free agency last year after a down season in Seattle, where he posted just a .741 OPS. Instead of signing what was deemed a below-market multi-year deal, Hernandez chose to sign a one-year, $23.5 million deal, with $8.5 million deferred.

The prove-it deal was a bet on himself, and a chance to win it all with the best team in baseball. Things worked out on both fronts for Hernandez, who put up an All-Star season and took home his first World Series ring.

Now, Hernandez is ready to cash in and get paid. Entering his age-32 season, this is his real chance to get paid on a long-term deal. Since 2019, Tesocar is one of just a few hitters who has eclipsed 25 home runs in every full season. His 158 home runs over that span rank 15th in MLB.

Many teams will call Hernandez to add some power to their lineup, but the differentiating factor in negotiations may come down to who is willing to commit the most years to him.

UPDATE: When there’s smoke there’s fire in free agency, and there have been a lot of reports that have linked Teoscar Hernandez back to his former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now that the Dodgers missed out on Juan Soto (although that pursuit was always a longshot) they can turn their attention solely to Teoscar, and it seems like he would have every motivation to get a deal done to remain in L.A. where he had so much success.

If not the Dodgers though, there are plenty of teams who could use a right-handed power bat like Hernandez on the open market.

Actual Contract: Three-year, $66 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers

11. Sean Manaea, SP *

2024 Stats: 12-6, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 32 GS, 181 2/3 IP, 184 K, 2.8 fWAR

Age in 2025: 33

Original Contract Prediction: Four years, $76 million

* New Contract Prediction: Four years, $84 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

Sean Manaea is coming off a career-year, where he established himself as the ace of the New York Mets on their deep playoff run to Game 6 of the NLCS. Manaea started that game and struggled as he had clearly run out of gas, after getting pushed more than he ever had in his career.

Manaea eclipsed 180 innings pitched in the regular season for the first time in his career, and added 19 innings across four playoff starts, pushing him over 200 innings total.

In the middle of the season, Manaea dropped his arm angle to mimic Chris Sale, and it made him one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. From June 14th through the end of the season, Manaea led all starting pitchers in innings pitched (121) and in batting average against (.178).

Now entering free agency after opting out of a $13.5 million contract for the 2025 season, Manaea is looking to cash in on a big multi-year deal. Manaea has already declined the Mets $21.05 million qualifying offer, which would have been the most he has ever made in a single season in his career.

Manaea expects to make roughly that per year on his next deal, especially if it is for three years or less. If Manaea can land a four-year deal going into his age-33 season, the AAV could be a little less.

UPDATE: There have been reports that have continued to link the Mets as interested in a reunion with Sean Manaea since after we made that our original prediction. The only thing that has changed however is the price of starting pitching.

With Manaea being arguably the second, or third-best starter left on the open market, there is every chance that he could do the unthinkable and sign a nine-figure deal. This would only happen if he got a team to commit five or more years, although we are still banking that he settles on a four-year deal.

Ultimately we are predicting that the price has gone up, but not quite to $100 million.

Actual Contract: Three-year, $75 million deal with the New York Mets ($23.25 million deferred)

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP

2024 Stats: 12-8, 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 29 GS, 170 2/3 IP, 166 K, 2.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 35

Contract Prediction: Three years, $63 million

Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Nathan Eovaldi’s free agent pitch to teams is pretty simple. A veteran who has been durable over the past four years, consistently pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA, with the ability to thrive come October.

Any contender in baseball that needs rotation help should be all over Eovaldi. He has pitched to a 3.05 ERA across nearly 80 innings pitched in the postseason. Back in 2023, Eovaldi won five of his six starts for the Texas Rangers in their path to winning the World Series.

He followed up his brilliant postseason with a very strong 2024 campaign, which saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA across 170 2/3 innings pitched.

The Orioles could desperately use another frontline starter to pair with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop their rotaiton.

That frontline starter could be an ace, like bringing back Corbin Burnes, or targeting Max Fried or Blake Snell. For less money though, they could land Eovaldi as another No. 2 type starter, who they could feel confident handing the ball to every fifth day of the regular season, then into October.

Actual Contract: Three-year, $75 million deal with the Texas Rangers

13. Yusei Kikuchi, SP

2024 Stats: 9-10, 4.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 32 GS, 175 2/3 IP, 206 K, 3.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: Will turn 34 in June

Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million

Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The baseball world was collectively shocked when Yusei Kikuchi was traded for a haul at last year’s deadline, despite being an impending free agent who carried a 4.75 ERA with the Blue Jays earlier in the season. The Astros identified an arm they could get more out of though, and they were right.

Across 10 starts with Houston, Kikuchi pitched to a 2.70 ERA and saw his strikeout rates spike to over 30% across 60 innings pitched. All told between both Toronto and Houston, Kikuchi was one of 10 pitchers who crossed the 200-strikeout mark, coming in seventh at 206 Ks.

Set to lose Max Fried in free agency, and potentially Charlie Morton to retirement, the Braves need some starting pitching this winter and Kikuchi could be an ideal fit. Set to cost less than Fried, and without a qualifying offer attached, the Braves could add another high-strikeout arm to their stable.

Actual Deal: Three years, $63 million with the Los Angeles Angels on 11/25/2024

The first of our top 20 free agents to sign a contract, Yusei Kikuchi has landed with the most aggressive team in free agency so far, the Los Angeles Angels.

Our contract prediction was not far off, but we had the Braves as the team signing Kikuchi. Instead, he lands with the Angels, who you can see later on we had signing Jack Flaherty on a five-year, $100 million deal.

14. Christian Walker, 1B *

2024 Stats: .251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 119 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 34

Contract Prediction: Three years, $65 million

Team Prediction: New York Yankees

After seeing Anthony Rizzo battle injuries and show his age over the last few years, it was clear the Yankees were going to move on at first base. They declined his club option and are now in the market to sign a replacement in free agency.

Enter Christian Walker.

Walker is the clear second-best first baseman in this free agent class, behind Pete Alonso, and is sure to cash in on a big deal after some great years in Arizona. While defense is not held at a premium at first base, Walker is still elite at the position, having just won his third-straight Gold Glove.

Along with the Gold Gloves, Walker has hit at least 25 home runs and has driven in 80 or more runs in each of the last three seasons, which would give the Yankees some more power for the middle of their lineup.

Set to turn 34 years old at the end of March, Walker is probably capped at three or four years on his next deal, but should bring in more than $20 million per season.

UPDATE: Here’s another prediction we will stick with. The Yankees signing Walker still makes sense, maybe even more so after they lost Juan Soto. He would add a power bat into the middle of their lineup, and a Gold Glove over at first base.

There have been reports that the Yankees are interested in Walker, but they aren’t the only team that makes sense as a landing spot for his services.

Actual Contract: Three-year, $60 million deal with the Houston Astros

15. Jurickson Profar, OF

2024 Stats: .280/.380/.459, 24 HR, 10 SB, 85 RBI, 139 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Three years, $45 million

Original Team Prediction: San Diego Padres

New Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Jurickson Profar of the San Diego Padres smiles.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – MAY 28: Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres smiles during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Petco Park on May 28, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

Could we really project Jurickson Profar playing for any other team?

There is something about Profar and a Padres uniform that just works, and it resulted in a career-year at 31 years old in 2024. Profar was an All-Star, posting a 4-win season while playing on a one-year deal that paid him just $1 million.

Last year, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. received a three-year, $42 million deal to stay with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he was not coming off an All-Star season.

With the lack of track record with Profar, it is hard to project him getting more than three years, but receiving a huge bump in pay feels like it has to be in the cards if he is going to stay in San Diego.

UPDATE: Nothing has changed since we wrote this. The only question is if the Padres have $45 million to spend, but Profar still belongs in San Diego (unless, of course, he signs elsewhere).

Actual Contract: Three-year, $42 million deal with the Atlanta Braves reported on 1/23/25

16. Ha-Seong Kim, SS

2024 Stats: .233/.330/.370, 11 HR, 22 SB, 47 RBI, 101 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Five years, $60 million

Original Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

*New Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

One of the most versatile free agents in this class, Ha-Seong Kim is an elite defender, who could slot in as a team’s starting shortstop, or continue to thrive in a super utility role.

Kim did undergo shoulder surgery in October and may miss the start of the season, which could dampen his market some. But in a thin free-agent class for middle infielders, Kim still stands out.

Having turned just 29 years old in October, Kim will have the benefit of signing a long-term deal, which could span even beyond the five years we are projecting.

When it comes to fit, Kim playing with another former KBO star, Jung Hoo Lee, could be a good landing spot. Playing in San Francisco would also reunite Kim with his former manager with the Padres, Bob Melvin.

Tyler Fitzgerald was a great story during his rookie season, but did tail off down the stretch and should not just be handed the keys as the shortstop of the future.

The Giants could slide Fitzgerald over to second, and have an elite left side of their infield with Kim at short and Matt Chapman at third.

UPDATE: When we made our first prediction for who was going to sign Ha-Seong Kim, we made the false assumption that the San Francisco Giants weren’t going to land a top free agent position player. Turns out we were dead wrong.

The Giants signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million deal, erasing their need for a starting shortstop. With Matt Chapman at third base, and last year’s standout rookie shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald ready to slide to second base, the Giants needs no longer lie in the infield.

One team that could use a shortstop however is the Atlanta Braves, although the price tag may be too much for them to stomach when Orlando Arcia is making just $2 million per season. Arcia gives them a good glove at short like Kim, but he’s nowhere near the same level hitter.

The reality is, any team can find a home for a player as versatile as Ha-Seong Kim. Here are some more landing spots we identified for Kim.

Actual Contract: Two-year, $29 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, includes an opt-out

17. Tanner Scott, RP

2024 Stats: 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 22 SV, 72 G, 72 IP, 84 K, 1.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: Will turn 31 in July

Contract Prediction: Four years, $60 million

Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

If there is one reliever who is going to get paid this winter, it’s Tanner Scott. The former Marlins closer was traded to the Padres at the deadline and continued to thrive as a high-leverage weapon.

Whether teams are looking for a new closer, or an elite setup man who can absolutely punish lefties, Scott’s name should be at the top of the list among free agent relievers. As the top closer on the market last year, Josh Hader received a five-year, $95 million deal.

Hader had more of a track record than Scott however, and was also a year younger. Getting a five-year deal worth more than $15 million per season might be the goal for Scott’s representation, but those deals have only been given out to two guys. Hader and Edwin Diaz.

Third right now in terms of largest contracts for relievers is Raisel Iglesias, who signed a four-year, $58 million deal in 2022. Expect Scott to fall more in line with Iglesias’ deal both in terms of length, and in AAV.

UPDATE: Looking back at this prediction there was nothing to update, as the market has not really given us any real indication of what Scott’s value is going to be at this time.

The Phillies could still use a back-end arm, so we will keep them as a suitable landing spot, but you can read about more here.

Actual Contract: Four-year, $72 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

18. Jeff Hoffman, RP

2024 Stats: 2.17 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 10 SV, 68 G, 66 1/3 IP, 89 K, 2.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Three years, $33 million

Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Predicting contracts for relievers is typically a fool’s errand, as years and AAV can vary wildly. Jeff Hoffman is coming off a fantastic last few seasons with the Phillies, where he has pitched to a 2.28 ERA over 122 appearances.

The right-hander will turn 32 years old in January, and should have more than a few good years left in him. In recent years, we have seen both Taylor Rogers and Robert Stephenson sign three-year deals, worth $33 million.

Hoffman could be in line for a similar payday this winter and the Cubs could use a top-end reliever to build their bullpen around.

UPDATE: Since our original prediction on Hoffman, it has been reported that he is being shopped as a potential starter, as teams may consider stretching him out, just like the Mets are planning to do with recently signed Clay Holmes.

Holmes signed a three-year, $38 million deal, which is $5 million more than what we had originally predicted for Hoffman.

Since the numbers are relatively close, and Holmes may have had a stronger market with a longer track record, we did not feel the need to adjust the dollar amount on our prediction, although there is every chance that a bidding war could still form for Hoffman that pushes it up to, if not past Holmes’ number.

When it comes to the team prediction, we will stick with the Cubs, but there is every chance they decide to make him a starter instead of a back-end arm. For more teams that could be in on Hoffman, check out his landing spots article.

Actual Contract: Signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

19. Tyler O’Neill, OF

2024 Stats: .241/.336/.511, 31 HR, 61 RBI, 131 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: Turns 30 in June

Contract Prediction: Two years, $34 million, with an opt-out after 2025.

Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Tyler O’Neill is one of the most interesting free agents on the market, as he is still just 29 years old, and coming off a season where he blasted 31 home runs in only 113 games played.

With that said, injuries have marred O’Neill for his entire career, which likely prevents teams from offering him a long-term deal. Best case for O’Neill might be signing a two-year deal, with an opt-out that would allow him to hit free agency again if he can stay healthy where he can get a longer term deal next year.

Set to lose Anthony Santander in free agency, the Orioles outfield is looking barren behind Cedric Mullins (who will be a free after 2025), Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad.

Signing O’Neill would give the Orioles a stopgap, who could replace some of the production they would be losing if Santander signs elsewhere.

Actual Contract: Three years, $49.5 million with the Baltimore Orioles on 12/07/2024

20. Luis Severino, SP *

2024 Stats: 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 31 GS, 182 IP, 161 K, 2.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Three years, $51 million with an opt-out after 2025

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

The early reports are that Luis Severino is unlikely to accept the qualifying offer after his great bounce back season with the New York Mets in 2024.

Following a season where he pitched to a 6.65 ERA, Severino nearly cut his ERA in half to 3.91 in 2024, and he made 30+ starts and pitched over 180 innings for the first time since 2018, prior to his Tommy John surgery in 2019.

Set to turn 31 years old in February, Severino is still young enough to push for a contract that spans beyond three years, but tied down to the qualifying offer, he might not find that in free agency.

With that in mind, we are projecting that he lands a three-year deal, worth slightly more than the one-year, $14 million he signed last year. A raise to $17 million per year, on a three-year deal puts him right in line with the three-year deal Michael Wacha just signed with the Royals.

The kicker for Severino would be getting an opt-out in his next contract, which would allow him to test the free agent waters again if he can post a second-consecutive strong season.

Actual Contract: Three years, $67 million with the Athletics on 12/05/2024

22. Gleyber Torres, 2B

2024 Stats: .257/.330/.378, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 104 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 28

Contract Prediction: Two-year, $28 million, opt-out for 2026

Team Prediction: Washington Nationals

The best player at his positon, and yet it is so hard to tell how the market will value Gleyber Torres.

When it comes to his bat, Torres showed enough last season for teams to be optimistic heading into 2025. He ranked among the top 10 second basemen in most statistics, and was one of the Yankees more solid bats in the playoffs behind the standout contributions from Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton.

The issue for Torres is his inconsistency, both at the dish and in the field.

Torres was worth -11 OAA and -7 DRS this past season, which were his worst marks since 2019. He struggled offensively in the first half, posting a .654 OPS, before coming on strong to his .292/.361/.419, with a .780 OPS in the second half to salvage his contract year.

Being that he is one of the few starting second basemen on the market, with utility infielders Ha-Seong Kim and Jose Iglesias representing the other top free agent options at the position, Torres should have plenty of interest.

With that said, teams may be wary of committing too many years to Torres, despite the fact that he is only 28 years old. Still, here’s a list of teams that could be in on Torres.

Actual Contract: One-year, $15 million deal with the Detroit Tigers

23. Joc Pederson, DH

2024 Stats: .275/.393/.515, 23 HR, 7 SB, 64 RBI, 151 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 33

Contract Prediction: Two-year, $36 million

Team Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

At this stage in his career, Joc Pederson is only being counted on for one thing. To mash against right-handed pitching.

He is not going to face lefties, and he was not asked to play an inning outfield in 2024. Now that is not to say that a team with a roster crunch can’t stick Pederson in left field, but more likely than not, we are looking at Pederson as a DH for the remainder of his career.

While his skill-set is limited, in 2024, Pederson’s production was not.

Among hitters with a minimum of 400 PAs, Pederson’s .908 OPS and 151 wRC+ both ranked as the 10th-best marks in all of baseball. When he faced right-handed pitching, Pederson walked at a 11.8% rate, struck out just 21.4% of the time, and got on base at a .392 clip.

All that while blasting 23 home runs and driving in over 60 in a platoon role.

The best comp for Pederson who has signed so far is Michael Conforto, and he got $17 million on a one-year deal. Conforto is still playing the outfield and hits against righties and lefties, but he was not nearly as productive as Pederson in 2024.

Pederson can keep betting on himself to rake on one-year deals if he wants, where he will surely get a big raise from the $12.5 million contract he signed a winter ago. On the other hand, Pederson might be able to cash in on a two, or even a three-year deal if his market really develops.

We will guess it lands more in the middle and Pederson gets two years at a similar AAV as Conforto.

Actual Contract: Two-year, $37 million deal with the Texas Rangers

24. Walker Buehler, SP

2024 Stats: 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 16 GS, 75 1/3 IP, 64 K, -0.2 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Two-year, $30 million (second-year being a $13 million player option)

Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Look at the stat line we have listed above, and the contract prediction, and those two numbers don’t quite compute. With that said, starting pitching is at an absolute premium right now, and Buehler is riding off the high of a fantastic run through October with the Dodgers.

After allowing five runs in the second inning of Game 2 in the NLDS against the Padres, Buehler went on a scoreless innings streak that spanned 13 innings.

This included the final three innings of a five-inning effort against the Padres, four-scoreless against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS, then five-scoreless in Game 3 of a World Series win.

Finally, Buehler was tasked with getting the final three outs of the World Series out of the bullpen on one-day rest. He set the side down in order, winning the World Series ring of his career.

Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees 7-6 in game 5 to win the 2024 World Series at Yankee Stadium.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 30: Walker Buehler #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees 7-6 in game 5 to win the 2024 World Series at Yankee Stadium on October 30, 2024 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

We know how valuable those outs were in Dodgers lore, now we will find out how valuable they are in Buehler’s free agency.

Considering the market for pitchers, there is every chance Buehler can get a 1+1 deal to be able to reset his value for next winter.

In the contract we laid out above, Buehler would earn $17 million in 2025 (which may be the market if he signs a one-year deal) then he could opt-in to an additional $13 million deal for 2026 if things do not go well in 2025.

We will see where the bidding lands with Buehler, as he has a very hard market to predict based on the difference between his regular and postseason performance, as well as his pedigree from earlier in his career.

Actual Contract: One-year, $21.05 million deal with the Boston Red Sox

Free Agents Predictions We Made Outside the Top 25

Justin Verlander, SP

2024 Stats: 5-6, 5.48 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 17 GS, 90.1 IP, 74 K, 0.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 42

Contract Prediction: One-year, $16 million

Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 09: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros walks to the dugout after the third out against the Los Angeles Angels in the second inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on June 09, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 09: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros walks to the dugout after the third out against the Los Angeles Angels in the second inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on June 09, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

This is a prediction that I am really just trying to manifest.

Justin Verlander returning to the Detroit Tigers at 42 years old would be a remarkable storyline to carry into the 2025 season. The Tigers are coming off their first playoff run in a decade, with their last coming when Verlander was their ace back in 2014.

That 2014 run capped a four-year stretch from 2011-2014 where the Tigers won the AL Central every single season. They have not won it since.

Verlander was traded from Detroit in 2017, where he created a new legacy for himself by winning two World Series for the Houston Astros. Coming back and trying to help an upstart Tigers team shock the world as the wily veteran is just about the perfect way for Verlander to cap off his career.

This might be the one pitcher left where the Tigers could see a real return on their investment with the amount of interest it would bring to Comerica Park early in the season.

Actual Contract: Signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Jesse Winker, OF

2024 Stats: .253/.360/.405, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 118 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: One-year, $10 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

The Mets strategy at this stage of the offseason could be as simple as leaning into vibes, with the addition of Juan Soto. The vibes were strong for the Mets in 2024, and they nearly rode them to the World Series.

Once they were eliminated, all eyes turned to Soto, and the Mets were able to come out victorious in that bidding war, to the tune of $765 million. There next big move post-Soto was the first in bringing the band back together, re-signing their ace from last season in Sean Manaea.

Now as the calendar turns to 2025, the Mets still have plenty of free agents in Pete Alonso, Jesse Winker, J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, and the next man on our list here, Jose Iglesias.

Alonso has drawn most of the attention since the Soto news, as the Mets are playing a game of chicken that is still expected to end with the Polar Bear staying in Queens. If the Mets want to add a second bat though, bringing back another postseason hero could be a good fit.

Winker was about a league-average hitter for the Mets after coming over at the deadline (97 wRC+), but he put together fantastic at-bats in October, reaching base 17 times in 32 plate appearances, posting an absurd 1.168 OPS and 224 wRC+ in a limited sample.

While he’s not up to the level of Joc Pederson, who the Mets were reportedly in on this offseason, Winker would represent a good platoon partner for Starling Marte as the Mets DH next season.

Actual Contract: One-year, $7.5 million deal with $1.5 million in incentives with the Mets.

Kirby Yates, RP

2024 Stats: 1.17 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 33 SV, 61 G, 61 2/3 IP, 85 K, 1.9 fWAR

Age in 2025: 38

Contract Prediction: One year, $11 million

Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

One of the two top free agents where are adding to this list in today’s update, Kirby Yates is coming off a fantastic season that saw him pitch to a sparkling 1.17 ERA, as he allowed just eight earned runs in over 60 innings pitched.

Yates was not originally ranked as one of our top free agents, due to him entering his age-38 season, but now that we have reached the point in the offseason where most free agents may be forced to settle for one-to-two year deals, Yates looks much more valuable compared to the field.

Aroldis Chapman and Blake Treinen have each set the market at around $11 million per for top-end relievers, with Chapman signing a one-year, $10.75 million with the Red Sox, and Treinen signing a two-year, $22 million deal to return to the Dodgers.

Expect Treinen to fall somewhere in that range on a one-year deal, with the Diamondbacks being a potential landing spot. Arizona just signed a new ace to pair with Zac Gallen when they landed Burnes, but they still could use a closer to fortify the back-end of their bullpen.

If the D-Backs can find a suitor that would take on half of Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5 million contract, they could allocate those resources to Yates. Regardless, after spending $35 million a year on an ace in Burnes, the D-Backs shouldn’t be afraid to spend a little more money to make their bullpen better by signing Yates.

Actual Contract: Reached a tentative deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

10. Max Scherzer, SP

2024 Stats: 2-4, 3.95 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 9 GS, 43.1 IP, 40 K, 0.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: 40

Contract Prediction: One-year, $16 million

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Remember when we all thought Chris Sale’s career was over, and then he got traded to the Atlanta Braves and won a Cy Young?

If the Braves could pull that rabbit out of their hat, why not try again and bet on another aging ace who is coming off an injury-plagued year. Max Scherzer is very familiar with pitching in the NL East, and was still relatively effective in a limited sample in 2024.

The Braves just let Charlie Morton walk to the Baltimore Orioles for $15 million, so there is every chance they don’t have the money to spend on Scherzer. Still, the Braves could use an arm, and Scherzer has the type of upside that Alex Anthopolous likes to bet on.

For more landing spots for Max Scherzer, click here.

Actual Contract: One-year, $15.5 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays