Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions

We are weeks into MLB free agency but are still weeks away from the Winter Meetings, and all the best MLB free agents are still on the market for all teams to bid on.

Juan Soto is stealing most of the headlines right now, as the sweepstakes for his services may be holding up the market, especially with how many of the best free agents available are Scott Boras clients.

Between Soto, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, amongst others, the 2024-2024 MLB free agent class runs through Boras in a lot of ways, as baseball’s most prominent agent looks to get his stars paid after a rough offseason last year.

Predicting contracts and landing spots is always one of the most fun aspects of the MLB offseason, and also one of the hardest things to do.

We have already ranked the top free agents on the market, but now we are looking to predict where they are going to end up, and how much they are going to get. Let’s dive into the top 20 MLB free agents on the market and take our best guess at what deals they will sign this winter.

Note: Free agents are ranked in the order in which we value them, and not (necessarily) by how much money we think they’ll sign for. Also, an * indicates the player has been extended the qualifying offer.

20. Luis Severino, SP *

2024 Stats: 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 31 GS, 182 IP, 161 K, 2.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Three years, $51 million with an opt-out after 2025

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

The early reports are that Luis Severino is unlikely to accept the qualifying offer after his great bounce back season with the New York Mets in 2024.

Following a season where he pitched to a 6.65 ERA, Severino nearly cut his ERA in half to 3.91 in 2024, and he made 30+ starts and pitched over 180 innings for the first time since 2018, prior to his Tommy John surgery in 2019.

Set to turn 31 years old in February, Severino is still young enough to push for a contract that spans beyond three years, but tied down to the qualifying offer, he might not find that in free agency.

With that in mind, we are projecting that he lands a three-year deal, worth slightly more than the one-year, $14 million he signed last year. A raise to $17 million per year, on a three-year deal puts him right in line with the three-year deal Michael Wacha just signed with the Royals.

The kicker for Severino would be getting an opt-out in his next contract, which would allow him to test the free agent waters again if he can post a second-consecutive strong season.

19. Tyler O’Neill, OF

2024 Stats: .241/.336/.511, 31 HR, 61 RBI, 131 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: Turns 30 in June

Contract Prediction: Two years, $34 million, with an opt-out after 2025.

Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Tyler O’Neill is one of the most interesting free agents on the market, as he is still just 29 years old, and coming off a season where he blasted 31 home runs in only 113 games played.

With that said, injuries have marred O’Neill for his entire career, which likely prevents teams from offering him a long-term deal. Best case for O’Neill might be signing a two-year deal, with an opt-out that would allow him to hit free agency again if he can stay healthy where he can get a longer term deal next year.

Set to lose Anthony Santander in free agency, the Orioles outfield is looking barren behind Cedric Mullins (who will be a free after 2025), Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad.

Signing O’Neill would give the Orioles a stopgap, who could replace some of the production they would be losing if Santander signs elsewhere.

18. Jeff Hoffman, RP

2024 Stats: 2.17 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 10 SV, 68 G, 66 1/3 IP, 89 K, 2.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Three years, $33 million

Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Predicting contracts for relievers is typically a fool’s errand, as years and AAV can vary wildly. Jeff Hoffman is coming off a fantastic last few seasons with the Phillies, where he has pitched to a 2.28 ERA over 122 appearances.

The right-hander will turn 32 years old in January, and should have more than a few good years left in him. In recent years, we have seen both Taylor Rogers and Robert Stephenson sign three-year deals, worth $33 million. Hoffman could be in line for a similar payday this winter and the Cubs could use a top-end reliever to build their bullpen around.

17. Tanner Scott, RP

2024 Stats: 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 22 SV, 72 G, 72 IP, 84 K, 1.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: Will turn 31 in July

Contract Prediction: Four years, $60 million

Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

If there is one reliever who is going to get paid this winter, it’s Tanner Scott. The former Marlins closer was traded to the Padres at the deadline and continued to thrive as a high-leverage weapon.

Whether teams are looking for a new closer, or an elite setup man who can absolutely punish lefties, Scott’s name should be at the top of the list among free agent relievers. As the top closer on the market last year, Josh Hader received a five-year, $95 million deal.

Hader had more of a track record than Scott however, and was also a year younger. Getting a five-year deal worth more than $15 million per season might be the goal for Scott’s representation, but those deals have only been given out to two guys. Hader and Edwin Diaz.

Third right now in terms of largest contracts for relievers is Raisel Iglesias, who signed a four-year, $58 million deal in 2022. Expect Scott to fall more in line with Iglesias’ deal both in terms of length, and in AAV.

16. Ha-Seong Kim, SS

2024 Stats: .233/.330/.370, 11 HR, 22 SB, 47 RBI, 101 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Five years, $60 million

Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

One of the most versatile free agents in this class, Ha-Seong Kim is an elite defender, who could slot in as a team’s starting shortstop, or continue to thrive in a super utility role.

Kim did undergo shoulder surgery in October and may miss the start of the season, which could dampen his market some. But in a thin free-agent class for middle infielders, Kim still stands out.

Having turned just 29 years old in October, Kim will have the benefit of signing a long-term deal, which could span even beyond the five years we are projecting.

When it comes to fit, Kim playing with another former KBO star, Jung Hoo Lee, could be a good landing spot. Playing in San Francisco would also reunite Kim with his former manager with the Padres, Bob Melvin.

Tyler Fitzgerald was a great story during his rookie season, but did tail off down the stretch and should not just be handed the keys as the shortstop of the future.

The Giants could slide Fitzgerald over to second, and have an elite left side of their infield with Kim at short and Matt Chapman at third.

15. Jurickson Profar, OF

2024 Stats: .280/.380/.459, 24 HR, 10 SB, 85 RBI, 139 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Three years, $45 million

Team Prediction: San Diego Padres

Could we really project Jurickson Profar playing for any other team?

There is something about Profar and a Padres uniform that just works, and it resulted in a career-year at 31 years old in 2024. Profar was an All-Star, posting a 4-win season while playing on a one-year deal that paid him just $1 million.

Last year, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. received a three-year, $42 million deal to stay with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he was not coming off an All-Star season.

With the lack of track record with Profar, it is hard to project him getting more than three years, but receiving a huge bump in pay feels like it has to be in the cards if he is going to stay in San Diego.

14. Christian Walker, 1B *

2024 Stats: .251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 119 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Age in 2025: 34

Contract Prediction: Three years, $65 million

Team Prediction: New York Yankees

After seeing Anthony Rizzo battle injuries and show his age over the last few years, it was clear the Yankees were going to move on at first base. They declined his club option and are now in the market to sign a replacement in free agency.

Enter Christian Walker.

Walker is the clear second-best first baseman in this free agent class, behind Pete Alonso, and is sure to cash in on a big deal after some great years in Arizona. While defense is not held at a premium at first base, Walker is still elite at the position, having just won his third-straight Gold Glove.

Along with the Gold Gloves, Walker has hit at least 25 home runs and has driven in 80 or more runs in each of the last three seasons, which would give the Yankees some more power for the middle of their lineup.

Set to turn 34 years old at the end of March, Walker is probably capped at three or four years on his next deal, but should bring in more than $20 million per season.

13. Yusei Kikuchi, SP

2024 Stats: 9-10, 4.05 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 32 GS, 175 2/3 IP, 206 K, 3.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: Will turn 34 in June

Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million

Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The baseball world was collectively shocked when Yusei Kikuchi was traded for a haul at last year’s deadline, despite being an impending free agent who carried a 4.75 ERA with the Blue Jays earlier in the season. The Astros identified an arm they could get more out of though, and they were right.

Across 10 starts with Houston, Kikuchi pitched to a 2.70 ERA and saw his strikeout rates spike to over 30% across 60 innings pitched. All told between both Toronto and Houston, Kikuchi was one of 10 pitchers who crossed the 200-strikeout mark, coming in seventh at 206 Ks.

Set to lose Max Fried in free agency, and potentially Charlie Morton to retirement, the Braves need some starting pitching this winter and Kikuchi could be an ideal fit. Set to cost less than Fried, and without a qualifying offer attached, the Braves could add another high-strikeout arm to their stable.

Actual Deal: Three years, $63 million, with the Los Angeles Angels on 11/25/2024

The first of our top 20 free agents to sign a contract, Yusei Kikuchi has landed with the most aggressive team in free agency so far, the Los Angeles Angels.

Our contract prediction was not far off, but we had the Braves as the team signing Kikuchi. Instead, he lands with the Angels, who you can see later on we had signing Jack Flaherty on a five-year, $100 million deal.

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP

2024 Stats: 12-8, 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 29 GS, 170 2/3 IP, 166 K, 2.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 35

Contract Prediction: Three years, $63 million

Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Nathan Eovaldi’s free agent pitch to teams is pretty simple. A veteran who has been durable over the past four years, consistently pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA, with the ability to thrive come October.

Any contender in baseball that needs rotation help should be all over Eovaldi. He has pitched to a 3.05 ERA across nearly 80 innings pitched in the postseason. Back in 2023, Eovaldi won five of his six starts for the Texas Rangers in their path to winning the World Series.

He followed up his brilliant postseason with a very strong 2024 campaign, which saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA across 170 2/3 innings pitched.

The Orioles could desperately use another frontline starter to pair with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop their rotaiton.

That frontline starter could be an ace, like bringing back Corbin Burnes, or targeting Max Fried or Blake Snell. For less money though, they could land Eovaldi as another No. 2 type starter, who they could feel confident handing the ball to every fifth day of the regular season, then into October.

11. Sean Manaea, SP *

2024 Stats: 12-6, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 32 GS, 181 2/3 IP, 184 K, 2.8 fWAR

Age in 2025: 33

Contract Prediction: Four years, $76 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

Sean Manaea is coming off a career-year, where he established himself as the ace of the New York Mets on their deep playoff run to Game 6 of the NLCS. Manaea started that game and struggled as he had clearly run out of gas, after getting pushed more than he ever had in his career.

Manaea eclipsed 180 innings pitched in the regular season for the first time in his career, and added 19 innings across four playoff starts, pushing him over 200 innings total.

In the middle of the season, Manaea dropped his arm angle to mimic Chris Sale, and it made him one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. From June 14th through the end of the season, Manaea led all starting pitchers in innings pitched (121) and in batting average against (.178).

Now entering free agency after opting out of a $13.5 million contract for the 2025 season, Manaea is looking to cash in on a big multi-year deal. Manaea has already declined the Mets $21.05 million qualifying offer, which would have been the most he has ever made in a single season in his career.

Manaea expects to make roughly that per year on his next deal, especially if it is for three years or less. If Manaea can land a four-year deal going into his age-33 season, the AAV could be a little less.

10. Jack Flaherty, SP

2024 Stats: 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 28 GS, 162 IP, 194 K, 3.2 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Five years, $100 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Jack Flaherty is in a similar free agent tier as the two names above him on this list, Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea. Where Flaherty has the edge, however, is the fact that he does not have a qualifying offer attached, since he was traded mid-season.

Flaherty just turned 29 years old in October, giving him every chance to sign at least a five-year deal in free agency.

The right-hander’s track record is mixed, as he is only a year removed from pitching to a 4.99 ERA in 2023. But a great contract year split between the Tigers and Dodgers has Flaherty in line for a big payday.

Finding a team for Flaherty is a bit harder, however, as it is unclear who is willing to bet on him over a longer-term deal. The Angels have been aggressive this offseason and could use an ace. It may not be the best fit for Flaherty to win, but it could be the best place for him to get paid.

9. Teoscar Hernández, OF *

2024 Stats: .272/.339/.501, 33 HR, 12 SB, 99 RBI, 134 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Four years, $85 million

Team Prediction: New York Yankees

Teoscar Hernandez hit free agency last year after a down season in Seattle, where he posted just a .741 OPS. Instead of signing what was deemed a below-market multi-year deal, Hernandez chose to sign a one-year, $23.5 million deal, with $8.5 million deferred.

The prove-it deal was a bet on himself, and a chance to win it all with the best team in baseball. Things worked out on both fronts for Hernandez, who put up an All-Star season and took home his first World Series ring.

Now, Hernandez is ready to cash in and get paid. Entering his age-32 season, this is his real chance to get paid on a long-term deal. Since 2019, Tesocar is one of just a few hitters who has eclipsed 25 home runs in every full season. His 158 home runs over that span rank 15th in MLB.

Many teams will call Hernandez to add some power to their lineup, but the differentiating factor in negotiations may come down to who is willing to commit the most years to him.

8. Anthony Santander, OF *

2024 Stats: .235/.308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 129 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Five years, $110 million

Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

If you are going to hit free agency, it is best to do it after a 44-home run campaign.

Anthony Santander has been a consistent source of power for the Baltimore Orioles throughout his career, but cleared 40 homers and 100 RBIs for the first time in his final year with the club.

Now, the Orioles have to decide whether they re-sign him or collect the qualifying offer compensation for letting him walk. Meanwhile, other teams will have to weigh his offensive prowess with his struggles defensively which could leave him as more of a DH than an outfielder long-term.

Still only 30 years old, Santander can look for a deal that is at least five years long in free agency, but teams may be wary of committing that many years to him.

If the Toronto Blue Jays strike out in their pursuit of Juan Soto, maybe they turn their attention to Santander and look to poach a power threat from one of their division rivals.

7. Pete Alonso, 1B *

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Six years, $140 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

Since making his debut in 2019, only one player in Major League Baseball has hit more home runs than Pete Alonso. That player is Aaron Judge.

Meanwhile, no one has driven in more runs than Alonso.

Alonso is a consistent source of power, where you can almost pencil him in for 40 home runs and 100 RBIs each year. Alonso cleared both of those marks in 2022 and 2023, but failed to reach those marks in 2024.

The soon-to-be 30-year-old hit “just” 34 home runs in his contract year, with “only” 88 RBIs. Those numbers were less than we’ve come to expect for the Polar Bear, but some big moments in October surely made up for his relatively lackluster regular season.

Alonso hit a massive come-from-behind home run against Devin Williams to help the Mets advance in the NL Wild Card round and went on to hit three more across a postseason run where he posted a .999 OPS. The biggest question now is if those moments where Alonso’s last in a Mets uniform.

It appears that Juan Soto is the Mets’ top priority in free agency, and rightfully so, but it is unclear how those sweepstakes will impact Alonso and his future with the team that drafted him. For now, we still have him going back to New York.

6. Max Fried, SP *

2024 Stats: 11-10, 3.25 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 29 GS, 174 1/3 IP, 166 K, 3.4 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Seven years, $190 million

Team Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

If not for having the qualifying offer attached to him, Max Fried might be considered the second-best starting pitcher in this free agent class. Between Fried and Blake Snell, teams are picking between two electric southpaws, who can easily lead your rotation.

Snell has been a bit more dominant lately, and he does not come with a QO attached. But Fried has been as consistent as they come across his career.

Whoever lands Fried is getting a pitcher who has a 3.07 career ERA, who has eclipsed 165 innings pitched four times in the last five full seasons since 2019. If the Braves were going to keep Fried, it feels like they would have signed him to an extension by now.

Assuming he does walk, going to the best team in baseball would be a great landing spot for Fried, who should get at least six years and could exceed $30 million per year in free agency.

5. Blake Snell, SP

2024 Stats: 5-3, 3.12 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 20 GS, 104 IP, 145 K, 3.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 32

Contract Prediction: Five years, $155 million

Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

We just talked about Blake Snell in our comparison between him and Max Fried. Snell was a free agent last year after winning the NL Cy Young in 2023. He could not land a long-term deal last time around, settling for a two-year deal with an opt-out with the San Francisco Giants.

While he struggled early on in his Giants tenure, Snell eventually figured it out, pitching to an MLB-best 1.23 ERA across his final 14 starts from July through the end of the season.

Teams have to understand at this point that they are getting one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball if they sign Snell, who has the benefit of being the one true ace with no qualifying offer attached, compared to Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

After not getting a long-term deal last time around, Snell should be looking for years this time around, and he should be getting paid at least $30 million per season. We have him going right back to the Giants but on a five-year deal worth over $150 million.

Actual Deal: Five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers

Blake Snell is the first major domino to fall this offseason, landing with the Dodgers on a massive deal that will pay him $36.4 million a year (assuming there is no deferred money in the deal).

4. Alex Bregman, 3B *

2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 118 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 31

Contract Prediction: Six years, $168 million

Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Recent reports indicate that Scott Boras is looking for Manny Machado money for Alex Bregman. Considering the fact that he is entering his age-31 season, getting a deal that spans a full decade would be a bit of a surprise.

Bregman has been a four-win player in each of the last three seasons. He has been a constant 25-HR threat, all while playing solid defense at third. With that said, teams can’t just ignore that Bregman’s walk rate was nearly cut in half this past year, from 12.7% to 6.9%.

This caused Bregman’s on-base percentage to drop by nearly 40 points.

Still, Bregman is the top third baseman on the market, who should have a healthy list of suitors. One of those suitors could be the Detroit Tigers, were Bregman would be reunited with his former manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers could use a veteran with Bregman’s winning pedigree to help them build off their outstanding second half push to a playoff berth in 2024. If Bregman ends up signing a six-year deal as we have projected, expect the AAV to be closer to $30 million a year than to $25 million.

3. Willy Adames, SS *

2024 Stats: .251/.331/.462, 32 HR, 21 SB, 112 RBI, 119 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Age in 2025: 29

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $192 million

Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The top free agent shortstop in the market may also be the top free agent third baseman, as reports have indicated that Willy Adames would be open to switching positions for the right teams.

Teams with incumbent shortstops like the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, or the New York Yankees could all look to Adames to play third, while others like the Braves may still want to keep him at short.

Regardless of where he lands, Adames is going to command a long-term deal that should come in beyond five years, with an AAV north of $20 million.

In the past, we have seen the Phillies use years to drive down the AAV of the best free agent contracts they have signed, such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

If the Phillies decide to trade Alec Bohm, as speculated, they could view Adames as an upgrade at third base. Or they could even move Turner to third, and start Adames at shortstop, where he would be an upgrade over Turner defensively.

An eight-year deal, at $24 million per year could land Adames with the Phillies.

2. Corbin Burnes, SP *

2024 Stats: 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 32 GS, 194 1/3 IP, 181 K, 3.7 fWAR

Age in 2025: 30

Contract Prediction: Eight years, $232 million

Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox need to make a splash this offseason, and they also need an ace.

Enter Corbin Burnes.

Burnes would give the Red Sox an ace who has become one of the best workhorses in the game, something they desperately need.

With Burnes, the Red Sox would have a veteran tone-setter in a rotation that includes plenty of rising young arms like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello.

Considering how righty-heavy their rotation is, Max Friend or Blake Snell could be more attractive to the Red Sox, but we already mocked those aces to other teams. Regardless, the Red Sox need to land one of these aces in free agency to really change the perception of them heading into 2025.

When it comes to the contract, Burnes’ nine-figure deal should be the one that starts with a 2, as he is expected to become the eighth pitcher in MLB history to receive a deal north of $200 million.

Expect Burnes to make at least $29 million per year over a seven-year deal ($203 million), although we have him getting an eighth year at that number for a grand total of $232 million.

1. Juan Soto, OF *

2024 Stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 180 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR

Age in 2025: 26

Contract Prediction: 15 years, $645 million

Team Prediction: New York Mets

How do you put proper monetary value on a 26-year-old free agent who is a near-lock to be a top-five hitter in baseball for the better part of the next decade?

This is exactly what Juan Soto’s next team is trying to figure out right now, as they all submit offers to see if they can land a franchise-altering talent. Soto’s asking price was set last season when Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal.

Now beating Ohtani’s contract can come in many forms, thanks to the unprecedented nature of the $680 million in deferrals that Ohtani took. This brings the present day value of Ohtani’s deal to around $460 million according to the luxury tax, where he carries a hit of just over $46 million per year. Ohtani set the bar, but topping it can come in many forms.

Obviously is Scott Boras has his way, Soto will sign for $701 million, and grab the largest contract ever. However, when it comes to present day value, a contract that is $500 million will be the largest ever. Topping Ohtani’s $46.08 million AAV is another way for Soto to end up with the biggest deal.

My prediction of Soto signing a 15-year, $645 million deal, would break out to $43 million per year, which would trial Ohtani, but the present day value would trounce him by around $200 million.

Is Soto really worth an extra $200 million? When he gets five more years, yes he is.

The winning bid for Soto could very well come down to years, and ultimately the Mets might be the one team crazy enough to go to 15 years if it means getting their guy.