Will 2025 Be One Final Ride for Pete Alonso on the Mets?

Three weeks ago, it was reported that the New York Mets “expected Pete Alonso to sign elsewhere”, as free agent talks had broken down between the franchise and it’s homegrown All-Star.

That report came attached to the news that another fan-favorite Jesse Winker had agreed to return on a one-year, $7.5 million deal. Mets insider Andy Martino of SNY wrote the following in his story about Winker’s signing, as the beginning of “plan-B post-Alonso”.

“Similarly to how the Yankees pivoted after losing out on Juan Soto last month, the Mets are now at the finish line with Winker. They also expect to add a reliever, possibly a top one like Tanner Scott.”

The Mets gave the impression they were done with Pete, letting him test the market to try to find an offer better than the one that he turned down. Winker was step one to their plans beyond Alonso, step two was signing relievers A.J. Minter to a two-year, $22 million deal, and Ryne Stanek to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

Put all three of those contracts together and the Mets technically spent an amount of money that could have been ear-marked for Alonso, but in reality, they never made a move to fill his position.

The Mets public stance was that they were comfortable turning over a corner infield position to their young players, with Brett Baty (set to get his third chance at such an opportunity) and Ronny Mauricio (coming off a lost year due to a torn ACL) being the prime candidates to earn playing time at third base. Breakout star Mark Vientos was likely to shift from third to first.

Alonso’s agent Scott Boras shopped Alonso around the market for three weeks, and while the Toronto Blue Jays were reportedly in on him (to some degree), no deal ever got to the finish line and the Mets always loomed large.

In the middle of this three-week hiatus, team owner Steve Cohen expressed his frustrations over the negotiations, calling it worse than his early-offseason $765 million pursuit of Juan Soto.

Six weeks removed from the ink drying on that 15-year deal, Cohen was on stage at the Mets fan fest (called Amazin’ Day), listening to Mets’ fans boo team president David Stearns’ on his answer that the Mets were okay turning things over to the kids.

Cohen responded with blunt honesty, that turned boos to cheers on what he described as exhausting negotiations.

The message to the fan base was clear. The Mets felt they gave Pete a fair offer. When the other side of that negotiation is Scott Boras, public opinion quickly swayed into the Mets favor.

Still, throughout Amazin’ Day, Alonso contract impasse was an elephant in every room. The event was well-attended by current, former and future Mets, who were nearly all getting asked about the negotiations in some capacity. The Mets then had a team-event at MSG to watch a Knicks Game.

Sean Manaea accepted the “Good Guy” award at the BBWAA Awards Ceremony in New York City later that same night, while the 2024 OMG Mets received the “Talk of the Town” award.

Speaking as a fan who was getting real FOMO from not being at Amazin’ Day, I can only imagine what Pete Alonso’s was thinking watching all the events of that day unfold while still unemployed, working out and getting ready for the season in Tampa.

Ten days after Amazin’ Day, Steve Cohen and David Stearns were on a plane to meet with Alonso in Tampa, convening at Alonso’s social club with his agents in hand as well.

The next day, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal

The details of what has been described as this, “secret meeting” were made available to the public courtesy of the New York Post and they shined a light on how all of this unfolded for Alonso and the Mets.

What Happened in the “Secret Meeting”

Can a meeting be secret if it is being reported about in the New York Post?

I guess if the meeting took place and was not leaked by either side for 48 hours, we can call that a secret, and it proved to be a very effective one.

Across a three-hour meeting, Alonso aired his frustrations over not getting the type of deal he was expecting from the Mets. The Mets meanwhile hoped to express how much they wanted Pete back, with Cohen aiming to “humanize the negotiations“.

Under owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have a general practice in place where they allow their free agents to test the market to determine their value, then they typically use that to find common ground on a deal.

This is what happened with two Boras clients, as Brandon Nimmo enjoyed a healthy market after the 2022 season and Sean Manaea returned to the Mets after a career year this winter.

Nimmo was the best center fielder on the market when he hit free agency, and got enough interest that the Mets needed to stretch to an eight-year deal to bring him home.

Manaea’s lone free agent offer this winter was a three-year, $67 million deal with the Athletics, which ultimately went to Luis Severino when he turned down the offer. Manaea would later return to the Mets on a three-year, $75 million deal, with $23.25 million in deferred money that took the present day value of the deal down to that same $67 million range.

Unfortunately for Alonso, the first base market in free agency moved around him, as team’s prioritized older free agents on shorter term deals such as Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, or younger players on the trade market like Josh Naylor, Spencer Horwitz, Jake Burger or Nate Lowe.

Once the carousel stopped, there was no room left for Pete, who was always holding out hope that the Mets would be the team that signed him anyway.

Despite reported interest from multiple teams, with the Blue Jays the most prevalent, no team ever came close to outbidding the original three-year deal the Mets put on the table.

It has now been reported that Alonso was initially offered a three-year, $85 million deal with heavy deferrals that would have taken the present day value of the deal down to around $71 million, with the desired opt-outs after each year.

As we learned from the Anthony Santander contract, shaving $15 million on present day value is not easy, and would have required Alonso to take more than half of the money deferred. The Mets were seemingly willing to offer the same three-year, $71 million structure without deferring any money, but weren’t willing to go any higher on salary.

Pretty safe to guess Boras’ ask for Alonso was three years for $85 million on a straight deal if we read between the lines.

The straight three-year, $71 million deal was offered to Alonso again at the meeting, which would have paid him $27 million in 2025, and $22 million apiece in 2026 and 2027. The deal would have one opt-out after the 2025 season.

To show his respect for Alonso, Cohen brought a new two-year structure to the table that paid Alonso more in the 2025 season, giving Pete $30 million for year 1, with $10 million coming in a signing bonus.

Alonso has a pillow to fall back on with a $24 million player option for 2026, but the obvious intention is to have a great season to reset his market for next winter. Alonso will get the luxury of batting behind Juan Soto, giving him ample opportunities to have a big RBI-season.

Will Alonso eventually get long-term security from the Mets, will he find it from another team, or will this be the first of many mercenary contracts the Polar Bear will sign as he attempts to stave off the twilight of his career?

No Better Place to Play in 2025

Without Alonso, the Mets lineup was clearly short a big bat, leaving only Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo as viable options to provide protection for Juan Soto.

There is a chance that either, or even both, Vientos and Nimmo could be better hitters than Alonso at this point, but neither carries the same cache as being one of the most feared sluggers in the game like the Polar Bear.

Since his debut in 2019, nobody has driven in more runs than Alonso and nobody besides Aaron Judge has hit more home runs. Prior to playing with Soto, Judge’s career-high in RBIs came in his first MVP season in 2022, when he drove in 131.

Last year, with Soto, Judge set a new career-high in RBIs with 144, en route to winning his second MVP. Now Alonso is certainly not an MVP candidate, but he too posted 131 runs batted in during the 2022 season. There is no doubt that with Soto getting on base in front of him at a .400+ clip, he has every chance of topping that mark in 2025.

If Alonso signed with Toronto, he would have had to literally move to a new country, playing in a completely different environment for the first time in his career. Alonso would have been in a lineup with Anthony Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitters with more overlapping skill-sets than complimentary ones.

Getting to go home to the same place you have spent your entire career has to be comforting for Alonso, especially knowing that he is not playing in a true contract year like last season. It also helps knowing that no first baseman in baseball will make more money than him in 2025.

One final wrinkle to Alonso’s return is his pursuit of the Mets all-time home run record.

The record was long ago set by another former Rookie of the Year, Darryl Strawberry. Alonso trails Strawberry by just 26 home runs, and he has never finished with less than 30 home runs in a full season.

Alonso’s Home Run Race with Juan Soto

Alonso’s chase of Strawberry provides an interesting subplot to the 2025 season for the Mets, but it becomes even more layered when you think about it through the context of Juan Soto.

Unlike Alonso, who’s future with the Mets is very much uncertain beyond this year, Soto has inked what amounts to a lifetime deal with the Mets. He has 15 years, and at least $765 million on his deal, providing him with plenty of time to break every single record in franchise history.

Alonso has a 226-HR head start, and gets this season to break Strawberry’s record of 252 home runs, and then some. If he opts into the second-year of his two-year, $54 million deal, he could extend that lead even further.

Still, if Soto averages 30 home runs a season across a decade, he should reach the 300-HR mark, and could far exceed that if he stays on the field across his 15-year deal. With every year Alonso remains in a Mets uniform, he pushes that goal post further back for Soto.

What Will Change for Alonso in Free Agency Next Year?

The goal of this contract for Pete Alonso is to put together a better platform year in 2025, then hit the market again after collecting his $30 million for one more year with the Mets.

Now this does not preclude the Mets from revisiting talks with Alonso when he hits the market again, but even the best year might not move Mets President David Stearns from his hesitation to commit to Pete long-term.

Unlike this year, where Alonso was the clear top first baseman on the free agent market, next winter will provide teams with a much deeper class at the position. Familiar faces like Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana could re-enter the market again, but the talk will be centered around younger names that will test their free agency for the first time.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most prominent name that could be on the market, assuming he does not come to terms with the Blue Jays on a long-term extension before then.

Vladdy will be coming off his age-26 season, and could very well entice the Mets similar to how the 26-year-old Juan Soto did this offseason.

Josh Naylor will hit free agency as well, and he too is three years younger than Alonso.

That’s not even to mention a potential wild card coming from the International market, with Munetaka Murakami having just turned 25 years old, making him eligible to become posted as an MLB free agent next winter.

Murakami made a name for himself when he hit 56 home runs back in 2022, and has hit 224 home runs across his seven-year career in the NPB. Japanese hitters (not named Shohei Ohtani) don’t always have the same success rate translating to MLB that Japanese pitchers do, but Murakami could be the exception, and will enjoy plenty of interest on the market.

Where will all of those top free agents leave Pete Alonso is anyone’s guess.

If Alonso hits 40+ home runs, drives in over 100, and once again plays every day, teams may have less concerns over committing to him long-term. Especially now that he won’t be tied to the comp picks that come with the qualifying offer.

You never know what a year will do for a free agent, as there was no clear path to Matt Chapman receiving a nine-figure deal a year ago, and he ended up finding one to remain in San Francisco after previously signing a similar opt-out laden deal with the Giants.

The difference between Alonso and Chapman though is the fact that Chapman is an elite defensive player at a premium position (third base).

Regardless of the numbers Alonso puts up, he will re-enter the market as a right-handed power bat in his 30s, with limited value outside of his ability to hit home runs. Now his ability to hit home runs is prodigious, but that skill alone is not one teams are valuing these days on long-term deals.

The reality for Alonso is that he turned down the longest contract he will ever be offered when he declined a seven-year, $158 million extension during the 2023 season. With that said, there is still every chance he can make out better in the long run for having turned down that deal.

After collecting $20.5 million in his final year of arbitration in 2024, Alonso has now secured at least $54 million from the Mets for the next two seasons.

If he opts out after one year, Alonso will have earned $50.5 million for the first two seasons of the turned down extension, needing to make up $108 million to beat the deal over the next five years.

Best case scenario, he signs a five-year deal at $110 million or better next winter, beating his original deal in one fell swoop. Or he could sign a three-year deal in the range of what he turned down from the Mets this offseason, adding $70 million to the pot, with $40 million left to earn when he hits the market again heading into his age-34 season.

Remember, Christian Walker just signed a three-year, $60 million deal at that same age.

If Alonso produces, everything takes care of itself. For now though, he gets to put all this contract talk behind him and get back to doing what he does best. Crushing baseballs over the wall for the New York Mets.

At least for one more season.