Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Corbin Burnes

In a time where starting pitchers increasingly throw fewer and fewer innings, one of the last remaining workhorses is available on the open market.

Only five pitchers threw more innings than Corbin Burnes in 2024, who totaled 194.1 innings for the Orioles. Additionally, he has eclipsed 190 innings pitched in each of the last three seasons, which followed a Cy Young campaign in 2021 where he posted a 2.43 ERA in 167 innings.

While the free agent is entering his age-30 season, his arm is still relatively young as he threw over 100 innings only twice in the minor leagues and four times in the big leagues. This coupled with a stellar 2.94 ERA over the past four seasons, figures to give Burnes a hefty payday this offseason.

Slotting in as the No. 2 player on Just Baseball’s list of the best free agents this offseason, here are the top five suitors for the California-born right-hander.

Baltimore Orioles

Arguably no team would benefit from Burnes’ services more than the incumbent team: the Baltimore Orioles. With Kyle Bradish missing most of 2024, the O’s relied heavily on Burnes to be the ace of a team that won 91 games. He responded to the task nicely, putting up a 2.92 ERA which ranked fourth in the AL and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

With Bradish undergoing Tommy John Surgery in June, his availability is up in the air, which would make a reunion with Burnes even more crucial.

Outside of Bradish, Baltimore still has starters Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez in the mix with Grayson Rodriguez returning from an injury as well. They are also set to get Tyler Wells back from an injury with a similar timeframe as Bradish.

Burnes is an established playoff performer, holding a career 2.33 ERA across 27 postseason innings. Most recently, he turned in eight innings of one-run ball to open the 2024 American League Wild Card Series against the Royals.

It is no secret that the Orioles are trying to win now, and retaining Burnes would be a huge step in the right direction. They were recently purchased by David Rubenstein, a 75-year old Maryland native and billionare who has energized a new era in Birdland.

The righty is rumored to be seeking a contract of 6-8 years, which would be immediately out of the question under prior ownership. It will be interesting to see how Rubenstein handles his first offseason at the helm, especially when it comes to re-signing their ace.

Pitching is the biggest question mark on the O’s roster, so bringing back their ace would be a perfect start to addressing a key need.

New York Mets

The New York Mets are linked to seemingly every free agent and Burnes is no exception. With nearly half of their 2024 payroll coming off the books this offseason, if owner Steve Cohen wants to get the right-hander, he will definitely have the resources to do so.

Just like Baltimore, this one just makes sense. The Mets posted the 12th best ERA among starting pitchers of any team at 3.92. They also had one of the worst bullpens among playoff teams, which means shortening the length that they have to rely on relievers to help the staff as a whole.

New York relied heavily on starting pitching length a year ago, getting the fifth-most innings from starters in 2024. Burnes would play into this starting pitching-oriented mindset that David Stearns has built.

The Mets also struggled with walks, handing out the third-most walks per nine innings (BB/9) in the league. Burnes has pinpoint control as he has posted a 2.4 BB/9 over the past four seasons.

There is also something to be said of Stearns’ prior relationship with Burnes.

Stearns was part of the front office that drafted Burnes as well as developed him into a Cy Young Award-winning starting pitcher. With that said, Burnes was involved in an ugly arbitration process with the Brewers in 2022, but has said that he, “holds no grudges,” against Stearns, adding that the two have a, “great relationship.”

Stearns and Cohen will be tasked with rebuilding a starting rotation that saw Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana all hit free agency at season’s end. Burnes is the best possible pitcher available to the Mets to replace (and even upgrade) on that production.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox quietly had a very productive 2024 season. Despite finishing 81-81, they got breakout seasons from outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu as well as catcher Connor Wong. More importantly, their pitching staff took a step forward, starting with starter Tanner Houck.

The Red Sox had a 3.81 starting pitcher ERA in 2024, which slotted them into the seventh spot in the league. Houck headed this effort with a 3.12 ERA across 178 innings pitched. With the offensive breakout that Boston saw, adding a bonafide ace such as Burnes would solidify them as playoff contenders.

The Red Sox had a lot of money come off the books in 2024 as they only have about $110 million dollars committed to the 2025 payroll. You definitely expect that number to increase with one of the larger market teams in the league.

Since the signing of David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have seemed a big gun shy, having not heavily pursued a big name starting pitcher in free agency since.

If that trend were to ever change, now would be the time and Burnes would be the guy to change it.

His reliability and veteran presence would not only pay dividends on the field but help develop starters like Kutter Crawford and Bryan Bello who have shown signs of promise but inconsistency across a full season.

Outside of Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, Boston does not have any long-term money tied up which should give them the financial flexibility to snag an ace in Burnes.

Toronto Blue Jays

Finally, for a bit of a wild card pick. The Toronto Blue Jays are in a weird spot as just a year removed from a playoff berth, Toronto finished the 2024 season at 74-88.

Their underperformance and the uncertainty of star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future north of the border seemed to wave the white flag. Nonetheless, the Jays have shown a heavy pursuit into fellow star free agent Juan Soto which to many signals a quicker turnaround than was expected.

Toronto is always in on big free agents, signing starter Kevin Gausman prior to the 2022 season before making a valiant bid at Ohtani the following offseason. With an active payroll of only a touch over $120 million dollars, the Blue Jays are capable of dishing out the funds for Burnes.

Their decision may simply come down to whether they want to heavily pursue Burnes or Soto, which is something only time will tell.

New York Yankees

If you notice a trend here, all the teams that are in on Juan Soto (who haven’t signed Blake Snell already) are featured as a landing spot for Burnes. This is because all of them are clearly in the market to spend big, and might seek a consolation prize if they miss out on Soto.

The Yankees would need consoling more than any other, after getting to the World Series in what would be their lone season with Soto if he walked. Pairing Burnes with Gerrit Cole would be one of the most devastating one-two punches in all of baseball.

New York has met with both Burnes and Max Fried, indicating a desire to add one of the top two pitchers on the market. What we don’t know is if this is more seen as a plan B, or if the Yankees could sign both Soto and a top arm. We will find out soon enough.