Top 10 NL Breakout Players to Watch in 2025

Before the 2025 season gets underway, the Just Baseball team put together a list of players with the potential to break out over the course of this next season.

In the National League, there were plenty of fascinating players with the potential to take a massive leap forward. From top prospects such as Dylan Crews, and James Wood, to more under-the-radar guys like Spencer Horwitz, this list is incredibly talented.

For each individual breakdown, you can find the stories linked to the player’s name in the heading, and I encourage every reader to read these stories.

Without further ado, let’s look at the 10 National Leaguers with the best breakout odds for 2025.

Honorable Mention: Michael Toglia

Before we get into the top 10 players we featured in the National League, it’s important to highlight an honorable mention, Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia.

With his status as a former top prospect, Toglia has always had high expectations for his career. Up until this season though, his struggles at the big league level had many people wondering if Toglia would ever reach his full potential.

Through the time he spent in the big leagues in 2022 and 2023, Toglia struggled. He registered a 69 wRC+ in 2022 and followed that up with a 24 wRC+ in fewer games the next season. For any player this is extremely concerning, but especially for someone with Toglia’s potential.

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But, in 2024, he found some success for the first time in the big leagues.

In 116 games for the Rockies, Toglia hit 25 homers, recording an xwOBA of nearly .360, while recording a 98 wRC+. While his wRC+ still finished below league average, this is the first time he’s come close to league average in his career.

There’s a lot to like about the strides Toglia took forward in 2024, leading many to believe he’s going to follow this season up with an even better 2025 season.

10. Matt Shaw

MATT SHAW DEAD CENTER! pic.twitter.com/2Xjg8apiJe

— Iowa Cubs (@IowaCubs) September 13, 2024

2024 MiLB Stats: 121 G, .284/.379/.488, 21 HRs, 146 wRC+

The first of the NL breakout candidates we highlighted for 2025, is Cubs’ top prospect, third baseman Matt Shaw.

After dealing their top third base option, Isaac Paredes, in the Kyle Tucker trade, it seems there’s the possibility the Cubs will turn to their 2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw to fill this void on Opening Day.

If this is the route they decide to take, it’s hard to see a world where this doesn’t end up working out. Shaw is one of the most talented hitters in the minor leagues, as he posted a 142 wRC+ at the Triple-A level.

While Shaw’s calling card may be his power, this isn’t to discredit the plate discipline he showcased this season. Shaw registered a walk rate just shy of 12%, alongside a strikeout rate of just 18.2% this season. His eye was a huge part of his success, as it allowed him the ability to wait on his favored pitch.

Shaw is also likely going to showcase a solid glove at third base, although it may take time to develop. This is largely in part due to Shaw developing as a shortstop before he got into professional baseball, but with more reps, Shaw will continue to adjust well to the position.

This success paired with the Cubs’ lack of third base depth gives Shaw the perfect opportunity to make the jump to the big leagues. If so, you could quickly see him break out in 2025.

9. Connor Norby

Connor Norby blasts his second homer in as many days on the first pitch of the game! pic.twitter.com/ZepeodYK2j

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 25, 2024

2024 MiLB Stats: 94 G, .293/.382/.496, 17 HRs, 129 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 45 G, .236/.294/.438, 9 HRs, 101 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

At the 2024 trade deadline, the Baltimore Orioles dipped into their prospect pool in hopes of acquiring another arm to help their playoff odds. They chose to grab Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins, in exchange for Connor Norby, a former second-round pick.

Norby had struggled with the Orioles, but ever since touching down in Miami, it was a completely different story. In nine games with the Orioles before being traded, Norby slashed just .188/.188/406. But, with the Marlins, this slash line improved to .247/.315/.445.

Norby’s main strength is his ability to barrel the ball, with his 14.8% barrel percentage ranking among some of the best in the game. Norby also had the highest launch angle sweet spot percentage among all MLB hitters with at least 100 batted ball events.

Norby still has a long way to go, as his plate discipline is one of the worst in all of baseball. He went down on strikes 33% of the time, which would’ve placed him at the bottom of the league.

If Norby can refine his approach, and continue to tap more into his power, you could see him begin to live up to the expectations he had as a top prospect.

8. Spencer Horwitz

2024 MiLB Stats: 57 G, .335/.456/.514, 4 HRs, 160 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 97 G, .265/.357/.433, 12 HRs, 127 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Back in December, the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz from the Cleveland Guardians, in exchange for a trio of high-upside, young arms. If this pays off, this may end up being one of the more underrated moves of the offseason.

The Pirates brought in Horwitz with the hope that he’d become the solution to their first base hole. Looking at the team’s depth chart before the offseason, you could make the argument that it was their second-weakest position.

Coming into the offseason, it was clear they needed to upgrade at first base, and Horwitz has shown the possibility to be that upgrade.

Horwitz performed well at both Triple-A and the Major Leagues last season, posting a wRC+ above 125 at both levels. During the time he was in the Major Leagues, Horwitz also flashed some really solid plate discipline, ranking in the 79th percentile or better in whiff rate and walk rate.

To become the best possible version of himself, Horwitz needs to improve how he does against lefties, as well as make improvements to his quality of contact.

Horwitz posted a wRC+ of just 53 against lefties in 2024, as opposed to a 147 wRC+ against righties. Also, his average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate both ranked below the 30th percentile.

If he can improve in both of these areas, there’s no doubt in my mind that Spencer Horwitz can break out in 2025, and become the solution to the Pirates’ first base hole.

7. Jung Hoo Lee

2024 MLB Stats: 37 G, .262/.310/.331, 2 HRs, 83 wRC+ 0.2 fWAR

Last offseason, the San Francisco Giants inked KBO superstar Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113 million deal. For the Giants, they expected the left-hander to immediately make a big impact on their lineup. Unfortunately, fate had other plans.

On a play versus the Reds in May, Lee exited the game after suffering a dislocated shoulder trying to catch a ball in center. This eventually sidelined him for the rest of the year, putting a close on his rookie season.

Although we didn’t see much from Lee, during the 37 games he played we did see some positive signs. For example, if he had qualified, Lee would’ve ranked near the top of the league in whiff rate, strikeout rate, squared-up percentage, and xBA.

He also registered a 97th percentile arm strength, showing his skills on both sides of the ball.

While Lee’s injuries prevented him from reaching his full potential, the building blocks for a breakout still shined through. If he can stay healthy in 2025, look for him to become the player we’ve expected.

6. Ivan Herrera

2024 MLB Stats: 72 G, .301/.372/.428, 5 HRs, 127 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

This season, the Cardinals decided to move Willson Contreras, their star catcher, off of his position behind the plate. While this was largely due to his health and defense, part of this could also be allowing a new face to get his shot behind the dish. That player is Ivan Herrera.

Although he played just 72 games last season, Herrera performed very well.

He showcased some pop, hitting five homers, while also showcasing solid on-base skills, with a wOBA of .351. Not only this, but he was able to record over 2 fWAR in this span.

For a Cardinals offense that finished 18th in team wRC+, this type of production was a great addition to the lineup. In fact, his 127 wRC+ was only behind Willson Contreras for the team’s best mark for hitters with at least 50 plate appearances.

Herrera posted an xBA of .293, a number that would’ve finished close to the top of the league if he had qualified.

While it was a relatively small sample size, Herrera’s production showcased a great set of skills. It’ll be interesting to see how he fairs in a full season’s worth of play, but if this continues, Herrera could allow the Cardinals offense to take a huge leap forward.

5. Pete Crow-Armstrong

2024 MiLB Stats: 26 G, .255/.299/.509, 5 HRs, 100 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 123 G, .237/.286/.384, 10 HRs, 87 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Over the past few seasons, the Chicago Cubs have succeeded in building one of baseball’s best farm systems. The Cubs had six players on the last edition of the Just Baseball Top 100, which is super impressive. One of their young top prospects, Pete Crow-Armstrong, finally made an impact in 2024.

Crow-Armstrong’s offensive abilities didn’t impress many people in 2024, with his wRC+ finishing at 87, and a lot of his other offensive skills finishing below the 30th percentile. The most concerning place is likely his second percentile chase rate, which could lead to some problems in the future.

Crow-Armstrong did slowly figure out MLB pitching a little more, as his wRC+ in the second half (104) was far higher than it was in the first half (64).

While Crow-Armstrong’s bat wasn’t exactly what the Cubs had hoped it would be, the other areas of his game made him stand out.

For example, his glove consistently ranked near the top of the league in every category. His OAA of 14 was in the 98th percentile, which is very impressive. His arm value of 4 also finished in the 98th percentile. Not only that, but his arm strength graded out in the top 4% of the baseball.

Crow-Armstrong’s speed is also one of his main tools, with his 30 ft/s spring speed finishing in the 99th percentile. This speed is the same tool that allowed him to have such good range in center field, while also letting him steal 37 bags between Triple-A and MLB.

While Crow-Armstrong’s bat may not have been what the Cubs had hoped it would be, his elite defense and speed allow him to bring some value to the table while he figures out how to hit MLB pitching.

Still, with the defense and speed alone, along with the hope of more upside to come with the bat, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranked at the back-half of our recently released top 10 center fielders in baseball. This came at one of the weakest positions in baseball, but his standing among his peers is worth noting, since PCA has so much more he can bring to the table in 2025.

4. Matt McLain

TAKE THAT, WARNING TRACK. @mattmclain_ pic.twitter.com/n38heETKaE

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 22, 2023

2024 MLB Stats: Did not play due to shoulder surgery.

Ahead of the 2024 season, the Cincinnati Reds had high expectations from their young second baseman, Matt McLain.

Unfortunately, in late March, Matt McLain would undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum, which sidelined him for all of the 2025 season. McLain began rehabbing in the Arizona Fall League at the end of the 2024 season, so it’s likely he’ll return in 2025.

While we had to wait an extra season for his breakout, McLain showcased a lot of his skills in the 2023 season. He finished the season with a wRC+ just shy of 130 and recorded over a 3-win season.

McLain is likely to play a bit of a super utility role for the Reds in 2025, capable of playing shortstop whenever Elly De La Cruz needs a breather, second, third, and even potentially out in the outfield if that what manager Terry Francona decides.

Regardless of the position, McLain should settle in as one of the most important players on the Reds during the 2025 season.

3. Dylan Crews

2024 MiLB Stats: 100 G, .270/.342/.451, 13 HRs, 115 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 31 G, .218/.288/.353, 3 HRs, 80 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

After being one of the most talented prospects to ever come out of college baseball, Dylan Crews had tremendous expectations for his future. In 2024, he came one step closer to making this a reality.

After posting a 115 wRC+ between Double-A and Triple-A to start the season, the Nationals decided Crews was ready for his Major League debut. While his time with the Major League team was a little disappointing, there were some positive takeaways.

Crews hit the ball extremely hard, recording an impressive, 44.7% hard-hit rate.

While he didn’t play enough games to qualify for most of the Major League leaderboards, this would’ve likely put Crews in the top 25% or better of all MLB hitters.

His bat does still have a long way to go to become one of the best in baseball, but with his underlying quality of contract metrics, I’m confident it’ll develop.

Crews also showed a lot of promise as a fielder, recording an OAA of 3, alongside a solid arm. His arm posted a run value of 1, with his arm strength sitting around 90 MPH. If his glove develops even further, he could eventually win a Gold Glove.

While Crews’ first stint in the Majors wasn’t all sunshine and roses, it was a step in the right direction. If Crews can continue to hit the ball hard, there is a world where Crews is one of the best outfielders in baseball by the end of 2025.

2. Francisco Alvarez

2024 MLB Stats: 100 G, .237/.307/.403, 11 HRs, 102 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

When our staff has ranked the top 10 catchers in baseball over the past two seasons, Francisco Alvarez has made the list each time. This is despite the fact that he is only 23 years old, and still clearly has yet to play his best baseball at the big league level.

As a defender, Alvarez is extremely solid. While he may not be a great blocker, he did rank in the 88th percentile in framing in 2024. Not only is this super impressive, but this makes him loved by any pitcher on the staff.

Alvarez gets rave reviews for his leadership, which was felt on a Mets team that took the Dodgers to Game 6 of the NLCS, with Alvarez catching every pitch of the playoffs.

Where Alvarez still needs to improve, however, is with the bat. As he has yet to live up to the potential he showcased when he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Across 100 games play in 2024, Alvarez saw his walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ all improve from the marks he set in 2023. And yet, his home run total went from 25 in 2023, to only 11 in 2024, creating a mixed season for the young backstop.

If Alvarez can reach 25 home runs again, while maintaining and building on some of the improvements he made last year in the other facets of his game, it’s hard not to get excited about what his true potential might look like.

1. James Wood

JAMES WOOD FIRST CAREER HOMER!!!! pic.twitter.com/7N6BBRzt4U

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 6, 2024

2024 MiLB Stats: 52 G, .353/.463/.595, 10 HRs, 176 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 79 G, .264/.354/.427, 9 HRs, 120 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

In August of 2022, the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres pulled off a franchise-altering move that resulted in Juan Soto heading to the Padres. The Nationals were able to land a huge return for Soto, with one of the key pieces heading back being outfield prospect James Wood.

Fast forward to 2024, and Wood finally made his long-awaited debut with the Major League club. In this short stint, Wood shined, showing that he has the tools needed to be the superstar they anticipated.

Wood’s 120 wRC+ was a very welcome addition to a Nationals offense that struggled to find its footing all season long. Their team wRC+ of 92 was 24th in baseball which made his presence even more needed.

As an individual, Wood performed extremely well. While he didn’t qualify for any of the percentile rankings, he would have ranked near the top of baseball if he had. For example, Wood’s hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, chase rate, and walk rate would have all finished near or above the 90th percentile.

Also, although Wood stands in at 6-foot-7, he’s deceivingly fast for his frame. His 28.7 ft/s sprint speed ranked in the 85th percentile, which could give him the upside to steal 30 or more bags in a full 162-game season.

Wood honestly didn’t hit the ball in the air too much last season, which was surprising given the power he showcased throughout the Minor Leagues. If Wood starts to hit the ball in the air more next season, he should have as much power as anyone in the big leagues.

Wood’s rookie season was a good look at the type of player he could be with some time. If all goes to plan, it’ll be interesting to see what his final line will look like at the end of 2025.