Top 10 AL Breakout Players to Watch in 2025

Before the 2025 season gets underway, the Just Baseball team put together a list of players with the potential to break out over the course of this next season.

In the American League, there were plenty of interesting players with the potential to take a massive leap. From top prospects such as Jackson Holliday, and Junior Caminero, to lower-tier guys like Will Wagner, this list is incredibly talented.

For each of the individual breakdowns, you can find the stories linked to the player’s name in the heading, and I encourage every reader to do so.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the 10 American Leaguers with the best breakout odds in 2025.

10. Will Wagner, Toronto Blue Jays

2024 MiLB Stats: 77 G, .315/.432/.444, 6 HRs, 130 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 24 G, .305/.337/.451, 2 HRs, 125 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

The first of the breakout candidates we highlighted for 2025, was Hall of Famer Billy Wagner’s son, second baseman Will Wagner.

Wagner was never a highly-regarded prospect, so this new pedigree he’s reached is very shocking. But, back in July when the Blue Jays acquired him for Yusei Kikuchi, the team thought very highly of him.

After performing well in the minor leagues, the Blue Jays decided to give him a shot at the end of the year, and in that stint, he was very promising.

He recorded a 125 wRC+, alongside a hard-hit rate of 50%. While his career is still just beginning, the promise he showed in 2024 gives good deal of hope heading into his first full MLB season.

Wagner’s game also comes with a really solid whiff rate of just 19.3%, which is a number that could lead to even better swing decisions next season.

He’s currently slotted to be in the running as the team’s 3B, competing against Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider for the position. If he loses this battle, he could spend a lot of time in LF for the Jays in 2025.

9. Jacob Wilson, Athletics

JACOB WILSON WALKS IT OFF pic.twitter.com/YkklvGe8o3

— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) September 25, 2024

2024 MiLB Stats: 53 G, .433/.473/.668, 7 HRs, 200 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 28 G, .250/.314/.315, 0 HRs, 86 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

Unlike Will Wagner, the next player on our potential breakout list, is Oakland Athletics’ former first-round pick, Jacob Wilson.

The one similarity that Wilson shares with Wagner, is that they’re both former sons of Major Leaguers. Jacob’s dad, Jack Wilson, was a Silver Slugger-winning shortstop, most notably for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our Spencer Tracy highlighted that Wilson’s contact skills are off of the charts, with his hit tool receiving a 70/70 grade from Aram Leighton in the Just Baseball top 100. This unique contact-based approach has led Wilson to where he is today and will lead him to success in the future.

While Wilson didn’t play enough to qualify for any of the percentile rankings, his whiff rate came in at under 13%, which is one of the better marks in the Major Leagues.

8. Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers

2024 Stats: 148 G, .260/.309/.380, 13 HRs, 97 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

One of the other former top prospects with a good chance to break out in 2025, is Tigers second baseman, Colt Keith.

Keith’s rookie campaign showed a lot of promise and potential toward a breakout in the 2025 season, and his transformation would be game-changing for the Detroit Tigers’ lineup.

Keith is just a few adjustments away from becoming a successful big-league hitter. A big part of Keith’s potential breakout season will be the Tigers using Keith in a non-platoon role, and giving him more opportunities against left-handed pitching.

Another key place Keith needs to improve is in his power potential, if Keith can begin to hit for more power, we may see him become one of the top hitters in Detroit’s lineup, even becoming a 20-homer threat.

7. Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels

How you doin'? 😉#RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/u5eovtRZlf

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) August 8, 2024

2024 Stats: 147 G, .250/.343/.362, 13 HRs, 104 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR

The Los Angeles Angels are in a very weird position, where they need to improve a good amount offensively. One way to do this is through the breakout of their first baseman, Nolan Schanuel.

Schanuel came onto the scene right after being drafted, as the 22-year-old was another product of the Angels rushing their prospects to the Major Leagues.

Schanuel’s strong suit is his ability to get on base, which showed in some of his numbers. He rarely whiffs, posting a whiff rate of just 14.4%. This number was good enough to place him in the 96th percentile.

He also ranked in the 91st percentile or better in squared-up rate, and chase rate, both encouraging metrics to see.

If Schanuel breaks out in 2025, expect his on-base skills to play a big part in this rise to the top.

6. Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians

2024 MiLB Stats: 83 G, .267/.398/.548, 20 HRs, 143 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 53 G, .234/.282/.421, 5 HRs, 98 wRC+

A few seasons ago, the Cleveland Guardians traded Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays, in a deadline move they hoped would set up their future.

In that deal, they landed top prospect, Kyle Manzardo.

This offseason, the Guardians also dealt their number one option at first base, Josh Naylor, opening up a lane for Manzardo to break out in 2025.

In order to do this, Manzardo will have to continue the success he found in the second half of 2024, while also finding the same level of power he found throughout his time in the minor leagues.

His second-half wRC+ was nearly 100 points higher than his first-half wRC+, which is a very positive sign of things to come. He’ll need to improve upon his quality of contact though, and raise his barrel rate and hard-hit rate even more next year.

If he can do this, Manzardo is in a prime position to break out in 2025.

5. Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles

2024 MiLB Stats: 73 G, .271/.431/.477, 10 HRs, 142 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 60 G, .189/.255/.311, 5 HRs, 63 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Jackson Holliday, son of former MLB All-Star Matt Holliday, comes into the 2025 season looking to revert back to his previous pedigree as baseball’s number-one prospect.

After being such a highly touted prospect, Holliday’s expectations have been sky-high. He was drafted first overall in 2022, and he made his MLB debut just two years later.

But, in the short time he spent in the Major Leagues, Holliday did not live up to his expectations. In 60 games, he posted a wRC+ of just 63, en route to a 0.0 fWAR.

While 2024 was a disappointing start to his MLB career, his 45.1% hard-hit rate gives me hope that he can break out in 2025. With the departure of Anthony Santander, Holliday’s success will be even more integral to the Orioles’ offense.

4. Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Here’s three minutes and twenty-seven seconds of Vinnie Pasquantino hitting sacrifice flies.

Because why not? pic.twitter.com/c9WhyjG0mh

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) February 6, 2025

2024 Stats: 131 G, .262/.315/.446, 19 HRs, 108 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

In 2024, the Kansas City Royals shocked the baseball world, as they made the playoffs for the first time since their World Series-winning, 2015 season. A big part of that was Vinnie Pasquantino.

For a few seasons now, baseball analysts have been projecting Pasquantino as a potential breakout candidate, but that came to fruition in 2024.

Vinnie Pasquantino’s 2024 season showed an incredible amount of promise, showing that he’s capable of being the on-base threat that everyone had anticipated him being since he debuted.

This was also the first season Pasquantino played over 100 games, where he showed a lot of good plate discipline skills. For example, his whiff rate and strikeout rate both ranked in the 96th percentile.

Although his barrel rate was lacking, Pasquantino’s 19 homers were the most power he’d showcased in any season to this point.

If Pasquantino can maintain his improvements in plate discipline and the power department, there’s a very good chance Pasquantino will break out in 2025.

3. Evan Carter, Texas Rangers

2024 Stats: 45 G, .188/.272/.361, 5 HRs, 80 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

Back in 2023, the Texas Rangers went on a World Series run for the ages, where the entire team contributed to their success. Aside from the star players such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, rookie Evan Carter became a key player in this run.

Carter hit over .300 across 40 games played (23 in the regular season, 17 in October), often setting the table for Seager in that potent Rangers lineup.

Going into 2024, Carter still had his rookie status, and was one of the favorites to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, along with his teammate Wyatt Langford (more on him later).

Unfortunately, Carter was not able to capitalize on the success he found the year prior. For starters, Carter struggled with injuries nearly all season, leading him to play just 45 games with the Rangers.

In the short time he was on the field however, Carter struggled.

His barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and exit velocity metrics were all subpar, leading many people to be less certain about his odds of being a competent Major League hitter than they were a year prior.

He did see some minor improvement in his strikeout rate, but due to the small sample size, all of his numbers and their stability are a little uncertain.

However, knowing the player Carter is capable of being, paired with minor improvements in some areas of his game, there’s plenty of hope that Carter will break out in 2025.

2. Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers

2024 Stats: 134 G, .253/.325/.415, 16 HRs, 110 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Evan Carter isn’t the only young Texas Ranger with the potential to break out in 2025, as the Rangers have another potential star up their sleeves. Their 2023 first-round pick, Wyatt Langford, has all the potential in the world to take a step forward.

Although he battled injuries early in his rookie season, Langford matured as a hitter throughout the campaign, slowly improving at every point. His wRC+ of 123 in the second half of the season was over 30 points higher than it was in the first half, showing this steady growth.

Langford produced a high bat speed, alongside low chase rates, which are both traits of some of the more athletic and physical players in baseball. He also played elite defense, combined with elite speed.

This well-rounded skillset could propel Langford to produce a 30-30 season at his full potential, which would be the first time that’s happened for the Rangers since Ian Kinsler did it for the second time back in 2011.

While Langford’s full breakout was hindered by his injuries, I have a feeling that given a full MLB season, the Rangers will finally get the player they expected to get when they drafted him in the first round in 2023.

1. Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

2024 MiLB Stats: 59 G, .274/.337/.521, 16 HRs, 119 wRC+

2024 MLB Stats: 43 G, .248/.299/.424, 6 HRs, 105 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off their worst season since 2017, and the franchise is looking for ways to turn things around. Sadly, they’ll also have the challenge of playing in Steinbrenner Field, a temporary fix for a home ballpark while Tropicana Field is under maintenance.

One of the players who could be a huge piece of their return to glory, is their third baseman, Junior Caminero.

Caminero will enter the 2025 season as a 21-year-old, and face the task of becoming the team’s everyday third baseman. But, I truly believe he can handle the challenge, after seeing what he did in 2024.

In the 43 games he spent in the Major Leagues, Caminero posted an 11.8% barrel rate, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate, which both ranked near the top of the league.

Not only this, but had he qualified, his 77.2 MPH bat speed would’ve tied him with Aaron Judge for the fourth-highest mark in the league.

While Caminero still has a long way to go in his plate discipline to make him a true threat at the plate, these elite quality of contact metrics make me far more confident in his odds to break out.