Spencer Horwitz: Most Underrated Trade of the Offseason

We do not often get a chance to praise the Pittsburgh Pirates. An organization that has been reluctant to spend money and has not shown a strong enough ability to compete through building from within.

However, we need to give them props for the biggest offseason trade. The Pirates made one of the most underrated moves of the offseason acquiring Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians via Toronto.

Horwitz, 27, slowly climbed through Toronto’s organization before a brief 15 game debut in 2023. Despite respectable numbers, Horwitz started back in Triple-A Buffalo to start 2024 where he slashed .335/.456/.514 before the Blue Jays finally brought him up.

Once he got to Toronto, the bat did not slow down. A .265/.357/.433, 12 HR, and 127 wRC+ was good enough to make him the Blue Jays second best hitter behind All-Star Vlad Guerrero, and not many noticed.

Now in Pittsburgh, Horowitz will get a chance to show what he can do with a full season of work and starting at-bats.

The Trade

Hortwitz was first traded to Cleveland before landing in Pittsburgh later that day.

For the Pirates, it cost them minor leaguers Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle paired with promising swingman Luis Ortiz. Toronto came out of the deal with Andres Gimenez, which made Horwitz expendable.

Pittsburgh’s rotation is already stacked with young talent and more promising arms on the way. Parting with a few pitchers and trading from an area of strength to address a need is exactly what the Pirates need to be doing.

The first base market was thin, and out of their price range, forcing the Pirates to get creative and find upside elsewhere.

If all goes right, the Pirates have Horwitz under team control through 2030 and will not have to deal with arbitration until 2027. A cheap contract with team control during prime ages is exactly what the Pirates need as the rest of their roster continues to get more expensive.

High Floor with Upside

Any time I look at players with smaller samples sizes in the majors, like Horwitz, I first want to determine their floor. Are there any red flags that could send this player into a tailspin where he does not provide enough value to be on the field?

Horwitz provides a high floor and standard that the Pirates should be able to count on. His eye for the zone and low chase rate produced an 11% walk rate in 2024. He put up above average Zone contact rates (84.4%) while also producing much high contact rates on the few times he does chase, 67.3% compared to the league average of 57.8%.

This leads me to believe, at the very least, Horwitz is going to make enough contact to not completely fall apart. Of course, the quality of that contact matters, too. His 88.2 mph average exit velocity could use some improvement. Horwitz did produce a slightly higher exit velocity in the minors, but hardly enough to make a drastic difference.

Usually, your first baseman is expected to put up power numbers which might not be the case here. The Pirates ballpark is not going to inflate Hortwitz’s raw numbers, in fact, according to xHR, PNC is tied for what would be his lowest HR output.

Can his power output improve? Sure, but it is not necessarily going to make or break his value.

A focus on trying to improve his power numbers, or pull the ball more, could take away from what carries his current value, contact, and a high walk rate.

Horwitz saw his average launch angle dip in August, which is actually the month he put up the most home runs with five. Those home runs came off a few rookies, Carson Fulmer, Austin Adams, and Nick Martinez, but nonetheless. If he can find a way to get his launch angle closer to 16 instead of where it landed at 13, you could see a bit more power.

Keep in mind, these numbers are from a rookie. A player who is dealing with the growing pains of seeing major league pitching every single day. His minor league power numbers do not suggest a surge is coming, but even slight improvement would go a long ways.

Regardless of what his power ultimately looks like, we know it will not be nonexistent. Combine that with his knack for getting on base and high contact rates and you can see why I’m high on Horwitz.

Expectations for 2025

The Pirates desperately needed another lefty bat in their lineup and Horwitz fills that need. Where he slots in the batting order is still to be determined, but roster resource slots him sixth behind Joey Bart and ahead of Nick Gonzales, two former first-round picks still finding their way.

I could see him climbing higher in the order if he gets on base at the rate that I expect.

Steamer currently predicts Horwitz for a .267/.368/.417 slash with 11 HR and a 119 wRC+, which ranks as the highest projected wRC+ in the Pirates lineup.

I see no reason why he could not hit leadoff or in the two-hole when a righty is on the mound. Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be bumped down and Horwitz would slot ahead of Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz giving them a better opportunity to drive him in than the likes of Ke’Bryan Hayes or Nick Gonzales.

However, when a lefty is on the mound, Horwitz might not play. The Blue Jays shielded him against southpaws and his .522 OPS against them shows you why. A platoon with Billy Cook could be in order, which does take away from Horwitz’s value to some extent.

Pittsburgh has struggled to find a first baseman and filtered through underwhelming options the past few seasons.

While Horwitz is not the prototypical first baseman, he should stabilize the position while also offering some flexibility. If Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez ever end up at first, Horwitz has the ability to move around.

Final Thoughts

Pittsburgh addressed a key need and did so without having to give up top prospects or overpay a free agent. That’s a win in my book. However, this team needs more. The lineup, as currently constructed, has too many subpar to average players.

Horwitz is a great addition, but is it the addition of their offseason? If so, the Pirates might be in some trouble. With so few well established players, the reliance on young talent in their lineup might be too much to overcome. The drop off from the top half of the lineup compared to the bottom half is drastic.

However, we have to give credit to the Pirates for finding a player who at least raises their floor.

With so many “what if’s” in their lineup and plenty of swing and miss, having a player that can get on base helps with their offensive issues.