AL Central Power Rankings and Preview for 2025

The AL Central was the division often cast aside ahead of the 2024 season, with three teams thought to be in the midst of rebuilds and two teams who were projected to be high 80-win teams at best.

This division shocked the baseball world though with four teams finishing above .500, three of which not only made the postseason but managed to win a series as well.

Suddenly, expectations are high again in the Central with a majority of the division having their eyes set on the postseason in 2025.

The division-winning Cleveland Guardians really embodied the shocking overperformance of the 2024 AL Central.

After such an extremely strong start to the season, where they held the AL’s best record at 58-37 at the All-Star break, they were able to lock down a bye in the postseason avoid the Wild Card rounds with 92-season.

After a 30-win turnaround from the 2023 campaign, the Kansas City Royals managed to accelerate their contending window and make the their first postseason in nine years and give the eventual AL pennant winning New York Yankees a run for their money in the Divisional Series.

The Detroit Tigers were seemingly down-and-out by all accounts at the trade deadline, acting as sellers before a miracle run in August and September propelled them into the postseason picture. There they would go on to finally end the the Astros run of seven consecutive ALCS appearances by sweeping them on the road in the Wild Card rounds.

The 2024 season looked much the same for the Minnesota Twins in a lot of ways. High expectations brought back down to earth due to injury troubles.

However despite all of this, they still managed to remain in postseason contention into September, and an over .500 finish sets them up well to try and get over the hump and get back to October baseball in 2025.

And then there’s the Chicago White Sox, who are in the heart of a lengthy rebuild after a historically poor 41-win season in 2024. Some big-time trades this winter as well as solid prospect development though leaves them with seven Top 100 prospects heading into 2025, giving them a strong foundation for the future to hopefully avoid seasons like 2024 occurring again.

Now, with four teams having their sights set on competing for the postseason in 2025, and one of the more intriguing rebuilds in baseball occurring in this division, let’s break down each team individually and power rank them for the first time as we approach Opening Day.

5. Chicago White Sox

2024 Record: 41-121, Finished Last in AL Central

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Lineup vs. RHP/LHP

1. Mike Tauchman, RF

2. Luis Robert Jr., CF

3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B

4. Brandon Drury, DH

5. Josh Rojas, SS

6. Miguel Vargas, 3B

7. Lenyn Sosa, 2B

8. Travis Jankowski, LF

9. Korey Lee, C

Notable IL: Andrew Benintendi, OF; Austin Slater, OF

The most intriguing name is obviously former All-Star and Silver Slugger Luis Robert Jr., who after much trade speculation this winter remains with the White Sox.

While he enters the 2024 season coming off and injury-ridden year, which also happened to be his worst statistical campaign with an 84 wRC+ and .224/.278/.379 slash line, there’s always hope for a talent like him. The hope for this season is that he can look closer to the hitter he was in 2023, who’s capable of a 128 wRC+, .857 OPS, 38 HR and 80 RBI.

The real question with Robert though is; how long will he remain in White Sox garb? At this point a trade elsewhere seems more of a “when” than an “if”.

While Robert is the only real name in capable of garnering league-wide attention, a name like Miguel Vargas is one that has some big-league experience under his belt and hoping to fulfill on his prospect pedigree before he’s too far removed from it.

Once a staple of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ system, Vargas hasn’t come close to living up to the hype so far. He followed up a 85 wRC+ season in 2023 with a measly 46 wRC+ clip in ’24.

That being said, while his 16 wRC+ and .104/.217/.170 slash line in 157 plate appearances after being dealt to Chicago looks horrendous, he did manage to look more like the player many anticipated in the beginning of the year in Los Angeles.

In 80 plate appearances there, he was producing at a serviceable level, with a 106 wRC+ and .735 OPS. With the No. 9 overall prospect in Chicago’s system, Bryan Ramos, breathing down his neck for the third base job, it’s now-or-never for Vargas.

From an offseason acquisition standpoint, as you’d imagine a team coming off this bad of year amidst an intense rebuild, there’s no move that really pops off the page.

Mike Tauchman constitutes their “big” move the immediate big league lineup. He’ll look to build off the back-to-back solid campaigns he put together in 2023 and 2024 with their Windy City counterparts in the Cubs, where he posted a 109 wRC+ and 111 wRC+ respectively.

Notable Depth/Bench

Matt Thaiss C, Jacob Amaya UTL, Dominic Fletcher OF, Michael A. Taylor OF

The state of this bench will really be determined by when outfielders Andrew Benintendi and the newly acquired Austin Slater are able to return form their respective ailments.

Benintendi was given a four-to-six week window to return from a fractured hand that suffered early in Spring Training, but according to Lamond Pope of the Chicago Tribune, he’s progressing well. Slater has been sidelined since the beginning of March with an oblique strain, but as our Elijah Evans reports, the hope is he’s ready for Opening Day.

Other than those two, veteran Michael A. Taylor is a name to watch with a prior seasons of double-digit home-runs and stolen bases under his belt.

The intrigue here will be when some of the MLB-ready, or close to MLB-ready, prospects will get their shot at everyday run at the major league level.

Both Edgar Quero, our No. 49 overall prospect, and Kyle Teel, our No. 55 overall prospect, are the presumptive catching tandem of the future. With both of them baring 2025 ETAs according to our prospect expert Aram Leighton, it’s only a matter of time before they dispel the uninspiring current MLB duo of Korey Lee and Max Stassi.

In the infield, a few names are seemingly on the cusp of making their present felt in the show, with shortstop Colson Montgomery, our No. 73 overall prospect, and Chase Meidroth and the aforementioned Bryan Ramos, both organizational Top 10 prospects, also hold 2025 ETAs.

Each of these five names have made significant impacts in the upper-minors, meaning this bench and entire lineup altogether could be radically different sooner rather than later.

Projected Starting Rotation

Rotation Depth Chart on Opening Day

1. Sean Burke

2. Martin Perez

3. Jonathan Cannon

4. Davis Martin

5. Bryse Wilson

Notable IL: Ky Bush

Like the lineup, there starting rotation is also not the flashiest unit MLB has to offer, representing the rebuild they’re currently in.

The Sox will be led on Opening Day by the 25-year-old righty Sean Burke, as he was given the nod as per Scott Merkin of MLB.com.

A former well-regarded prospect in this system, Burke will look to build on the impressive big league cameo he put together in four outings (three starts) in 2024, where posted a 1.42 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .174 BAA.

He also managed to keep the high strikeout rates he’s been known for up when he got his call-up, going from 12.03 K/9 in Triple-A to 10.42 at the major league level.

Burke will be joined by a few other names in the early stages of their big league careers, in Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin, both of which were solid mid-4.00 ERA arms in 2024.

Then, 27-year-old Bryse Wilson and 34-year-old Martín Pérez will act as the veteran representation in this staff this season.

Wilson is coming off a year, split between the rotation and bullpen In Milwaukee, where posted a 4.04 ERA in 104.2 innings of work. Pérez split time between the Pirates and the Padres in 2024, posting a 4.53 total ERA for the season, with his better results coming after being dealt to San Diego.

Where the focus for White Sox fans will be when it comes to the rotation is the timeline of when the pair of Top 100 prospects leading their system in Noah Schultz, our No. 22 overall prospect, and Hagen Smith, our No. 34 overall prospect, will make their major league debuts.

Both of these southpaws form as electrifying a prospect duo as any MLB team has to offer, and if all goes to plan, will anchor this White Sox rotation for years to come.

Projected Bullpen

Bullpen Depth

1. Mike Clevinger

2. Justin Anderson

3. Fraser Ellard

4. Gus Varland

5. Cam Booser

6. Tyler Gilbert

7. Penn Murfee

8. Shane Smith

Then there’s the bullpen, which as you’d expect, lacks a lot of real impact names, as it’s currently littered with mediocrity.

According to our Elijah Evans, manager Will Venable will rely on a series of back-end arms to anchor this bullpen.

Former starter, Mike Clevinger is leading the charge to be the first name called upon for closing opportunities, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. So far this spring the 34-year-old has harnessed some of that strikeout-oriented success he saw when he was at his peak in Cleveland from 2017 to 2019.

Other names that have been noted to have a strong role to play in high leverage innings, according to Sam Connon of Sports Illustrated, are Justin Anderson, Jordan Leasure and Fraser Ellard.

It’s not a glamorous bunch by any means, but who knows, perhaps they can find another success story like the one they found last season after Michael Soroka re-claimed some of his past success.

Outlook

Like I mentioned earlier, the White Sox are projected to hold the AL’s lowest win total for a reason. This a team deep in a rebuild, relying mostly uninspiring veteran talent today until the intriguing young names of tomorrow get their run. Between that changing of the guard and potential deadline deals, expect this roster to look very different by seasons-end than the group it started with.

4. Detroit Tigers

2024 Record: 86-76, Finished tied for 2nd in AL Central

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Lineup vs. RHP/LHP

1. Wenceel Perez, CF

2. Riley Greene, LF

3. Gleyber Torres, 2B

4. Kerry Carpenter, RF

5. Colt Keith, 1B

6. Spencer Torkelson, DH

7. Trey Sweeney, SS

8. Javier Baez, 3B

9. Jake Rogers, C

Notable IL: Parker Meadows, CF; Matt Vierling, UTL

The Tigers had a pesky offense to deal with down the stretch of the 2024 season, made up primarily of intriguing young talent.

Heading into 2025, this team will be defined by the young quartet of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows.

Greene will look to continue to build on his steady ascent to stardom, after he went from a 121 wRC+ hitter in 2023 to a 135 wRC+ bat last season. He added a bit more pop with his first 20+ HR season, while also becoming more disciplined at the dish with a 2.6% jump in his walk rate to 11.0%.

This season will be a big one for Carpenter as now seems to be the time where they throw up against both righties and lefties and see if sinks or swims.

The 27-year-old mashed righties last season with a .305 AVG, .994 OPS and 176 wRC+ in 264 plate appearances. The caveat here is that he faced lefties in just 32 plate appearances, posting a horrendous .107 AVG, .408 OPS and 18 wRC+ in the limited sample size.

Carpenter has shown the makings of a phenomenal hitter and at the bare minimum he’s a great strong-side platoon DH. However, being such a strong bat, the hope will be that more chances he gets against southpaws, the better the numbers will making him a more league-wide feared hitter.

While the Tigers will hope year-two of a six-year deal will be better than the .689 OPS and 97 wRC+ Keith posted last year, the bigger question is how will he adapt to his first season at a new position.

After the signing of Gleyber Torres, Keith was forced off of second to first base, meaning he’ll have to balance developing at the plate while he works on getting the knack for an entirely new position.

Then there’s Meadows who, after stints in both the minors and on the IL, put together a great second second-half, hitting to the tune of a .296/.340/.500 slash line with a 137 wRC+.

Now, things haven’t gotten off to the best of starts for the 25-year-old outfielder in 2025, as an arm injury has made Opening Day look a bit far fetched at this point, according to Tigers insider Chris McCosky. However, if Meadows can return at his second-half form from a year ago, the upper half of the order will look just fine for Detroit in their pursuit of consecutive postseason appearances.

Then on the caveat, while there’s a lot of promise on this roster, the presence of Javier Báez still looms, who’s been an offensive black hole since arriving in the Motor City.

While the injury of Matt Vierling and the optioning of Jace Jung opens up some opportunity at regular run in the infield for Báez, he’ll have to make significant strides to improve upon a 43 wRC+ season in ’24 if he wants to remain in the offensive mix on a regular basis.

The one real addition to the lineup is Gleyber Torres on a one-year deal. Last season was the prefect representation of the inconsistent player Torres can be. His first-half resembled the below average year he had in 2021, but a strong second-half had the baseball world wondering whether or not the the early Gleyber was back to the 120 wRC+ type hitter he was in 2023.

Notable Depth/Bench

C Dillon Dingler, UTL Andy Ibanez, UTL Zack McKinstry, UTL Jahami Jones

The bench is nothing special and will become more clear when both Meadows and Vierling are able to make their return to the lineup.

When they do make their return and Detroit is at full-strength, names like Baez, Spencer Torkelson and Trey Sweeney could be on the hot seat and thus have to play a role on the this bench.

Dillon Dingler is a name that carries a bit of intrigue with some prospect pedigree behind him.

While the Tigers currently have a strong defensive catcher in Rogers in the lineup, Dingler will look to have more of an impact than his 27 game cameo in 2024 and showcase some of that .308 AVG, .938 OPS and 139 wRC+ level of performance he had in Triple-A Toledo last season in an attempt to steal some ABs from Rogers.

Projected Starting Rotation

Rotation Depth Chart on Opening Day

1. Tarik Skubal

2. Jack Flaherty

3. Reese Olson

4. Casey Mize

5. Kenta Maeda or Jackson Jobe

Notable IL: Alex Cobb, Jose Urquidy, Ty Madden, Sawyer Gipson-Long

The Tigers rotation has seen undergone a bit of face-lift this winter after how heavily reliant it was on both Tarik Skubal and their crafty bullpen.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a rotation that is certainly led and still extremely reliant on the reigning AL Cy Young award winner and Just Baseball’s No. 1 ranked starting pitcher for 2025 in Skubal, but now there’s more of a foundation behind him than just Reese Olson and chaotic bullpen days.

Jack Flaherty for starters, makes his return to Detroit after they sent him to the World Series winning Dodgers at the trade deadline last summer. He’ll look to build off the career revitalization he experienced last season and channel the low 3.00s ERA capability he’s displayed time and time again.

The other new guy in town, Alex Cobb, will start the year on the IL, but will look to build upon a notably solid return to the mound last season in Cleveland. The 37-year-old veteran managed to throw to a 2.76 ERA in three starts. This is the type of arm the Tigers will look for when Cobb makes is return, as opposed to the 7.94 ERA guy he was after a difficult postseason.

The aforementioned Olson will still have his role to play as now the question will be whether or not he can build off his breakout 3.53 ERA and 3.17 FIP campaign and continue to be a middle-of-the-rotation staple in this rotation.

Then there’s our No. 3 overall prospect in Jackson Jobe, who the verdict is still out on whether or not he’ll start the year in the minors, but will inevitably have a role to play in the big league rotation at some point this season and build of his brief MLB cameo, after a fantastic 2.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP season across the minor leagues last year.

Projected Bullpen

Bullpen Depth

1. Jason Foley

2. Beau Brieske

3. Tyler Holton

4. Tommy Kahnle

5. Will Vest

6. Brenan Hanifee

7. John Brebbia

8. Brant Hurter

This bullpen still has the makings of the chaotic unit that held the fourth-lowest ERA, the fifth-lowest BAA and the lowest FIP in the second-half of last season.

They will be anchored once again by Jason Foley, after an impressive 3.15 ERA and 28-save season. While he will likely continue to have the trust of manager A.J. Hinch in the ninth, the second-half showed us that the Tigers have multiple arms capable of coming in at any time to get high leverage outs.

Along with Foley, FanGraphs ZiPS projections for the Tigers in 2025 have numerous names predicted to have multiple saves this year, with Beau Brieske at 10, Tyler Holton at six and Will Vest and new guy Tommy Kahnle each at two.

Then there’s names like Brant Hurter, who may not have any projected saves to his name for 2025, but flashed immense success in 2024 including a sub-2.00 ERA month of September (1.59 in 22.2 innings).

Outlook

Overall this an extremely hard team to project. While they certainly improved this winter, how do improvements actually look for a team that over performed expectations so heavily in the finally two months of the season after being sellers at the trade deadline.

Given the state of the three teams ahead of them and the more sure-fire makeups each of them has, fourth seems to be the safest place to rank this Tigers squad.

Now it would take an absolute miracle for them to fall below the White Sox on this list when the season gets underway, but they could definitely exceed expectations and climb this list if they manage to pick up right where they left off in 2024.

3. Cleveland Guardians

2024 Record: 92-69, Finished 1st in AL Central

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Lineup vs. RHP/LHP

1. Steven Kwan, LF

2. José Ramírez, 3B

3. Kyle Manzardo, DH

4. Carlos Santana, 1B

5. Lane Thomas, CF

6. Will Brennan, RF

7. Bo Naylor, C

8. Gabriel Arias, 2B

9. Brayan Rocchio, SS

Notable IL: David Fry

After a year of exceeding expectations in 2024, this 2025 Guardians lineup will have the same goals this time around, with a few names looking to continue to establish themselves as some of the league’s best positional players.

José Ramírez was simply remarkable last year, with his near 40-40 season flying under a lot of radars, which makes sense when he was competing with Shohei Ohtani and his 50-50 season. Our top ranked third baseman will look to build of his highest fWAR season since 2018 and fifth career year with an fWAR at 6.0 or better.

Then there’s Steven Kwan, who after coming off the early season IL last year, was electrifying showing off the benefits of a 96.7% in-zone contact rate with a .292 AVG and .793 OPS, resulting in his first career All-Star nod. He also managed to remain an elite defender in the corner outfield, capturing his third consecutive Gold Glove.

Then there’s the complimentary pieces, which Cleveland has a few of who could make some noise this season.

While Josh Naylor and his 31 HR and 108 RBI will certainly be missed in this lineup, the return of Carlos Santana will help mitigate the loss of an All-Star.

In 594 plate appearances with the Twins last season, the soon-to-be 39-year-old turned back the clock a bit with a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR, his highest totals since 2019.

The prize of their 2024 trade deadline in Lane Thomas will also look to make a bit of better impression than he made in his first few months in Cleveland.

While his clutch ALDS Grand Slam will live in the minds of Guardians fans for some time, he still only managed to slash .209/.267/.390 with a 84 wRC+ in 187 regular season plate appearances.

However, this is still a hitter who’s only a year removed from a 28 HR, 86 RBI and 110 wRC+ season, so perhaps a full year in the middle of this order will be conducive to that sort of solid output once again.

The there’s the promise of Kyle Manzardo in the DH role, who may be coming off a lackluster 98 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR season in, but has a lot prospect pedigree and minor league results to dream on in what should be his first full season in the majors this year.

This a hitter who managed 20 HR, a .548 SLG and a 143 wRC+ in 364 plate appearances in Triple-A Columbus, and if he can channel that, he’s could be the perfect run-producing candidate to follow the likes of Kwan and Ramírez in this lineup.

Notable Depth/Bench

C Austin Hedges, 1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel, UTL Daniel Schneemann, UTL Tyler Freeman

The theme of Cleveland’s bench is utility with everyone, other than defensive backstop Austin Hedges, playing multiple positions.

While Tyler Freeman and Daniel Schneemann both have the ability to play across a majority of the infield and outfield, the real utility-type option to focus on in the current bench mix is Jhonkensy Noel.

Big Christmas provides a potential weak-side platoon partner for Manzardo at DH while also being able to cover some games at both first and in the corner outfield. At the plate, Noel provides an extreme power threat, with 13 HR in just 67 big league games in 2024.

The real highlight though comes in their prospect depth, with a high level Top 100 prospects with 2025 ETAs that will likely assume platoon roles at the very least sooner rather than later.

Last year’s first overall pick and our No. 14 overall prospect, Travis Bazzana will likely take the reins at second base by year’s end, while Chase DeLauter, our No. 59 overall prospect, has his eyes set on a corner outfield role in 2025.

Projected Starting Rotation

Rotation Depth Chart on Opening Day

1. Tanner Bibee

2. Ben Lively

3. Gavin Williams

4. Luis L. Oriz

5. Triston McKenzie

Notable IL: Shane Bieber, John Means

Cleveland’s rotation was one that sparked as much attention as the other facets of the roster, but in this case for the wrong reason. Their staff ranked in the bottom 10 teams in the league across the board, in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA and fWAR, after really feeling the early loss of ace Shane Bieber.

Tanner Bibee was one of the few bright spots in this staff in 2024, as with Bieber still on the shelf for the immediate future as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, he’ll be entrusted to hold the duties of ace for a second consecutive season. In his first season anchoring this Guardians rotation he managed to post a very respectable 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

After him the question is: who will take the mantle of Bibee’s number two spot while Cleveland awaits the potential late-season returns of Bieber and the newly acquired John Means from their respective rehabs?

Gavin Williams has done his best this spring to make his case for the role. A potential rebound season could be in the cards for the 25-year-old, after throwing to a 1.13 ERA, 0.89 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, .172 BAA and 18.00 K/9 in 8.0 innings across three spring training starts.

Among other names with intrigue is Ben Lively after his unexpectedly productive campaign in ’24. Triston McKenzie also lands in this group, as he’ll look to stay healthy and bounce back to the front-end starter outlook many had predicted for him in the early stages of his career.

Finally, Luis J. Ortiz, who was the prize of the Spencer Horwitz trade with Pirates, could breakout with the help of the Guardians pitching lab.

Projected Bullpen

Bullpen Depth

1. Emmanuel Clase

2. Cade Smith

3. Hunter Gaddis

4. Paul Sewald

5. Tim Herrin

6. Andrew Walters

7. Koby Allard

8. Jakob Junis

Notable IL: Trevor Stephan, Erik Sabrowski

Now we move to the strongest unit the Guardians have to offer, as their bullpen ranked first across the board, in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA and fWAR. Heading into 2025, all the key pieces of this top ‘pen remain in place in Cleveland.

Emmanuel Clase, our top ranked relief pitcher for the upcoming season, will look to repat the 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP year that landed him a third place finish in AL Cy Young voting.

Then the remainder of the formidable four back-end arms are also in place to assume similar roles and cover the sixth to the eighth in Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin.

A series of new promising arms are also in the fold this season. Andrew Walters and Erik Sabrowski (who’s currently sidelined) were both high end performers in the upper minors last season.

Then from a veteran standpoint, former closer Paul Sewald was added to the mix this winter, with the hopes of also joining the mix of capable late inning arms to ease the pressure of this questionable starting staff. Trevor Stephan, who missed all of last season with injury, is another reliable veteran, and familiar face, with prior high leverage relief experience for the Guards.

Outlook

It’s a tight grouping in the top three here, as after an overachieving season in 2024, the Guardians could repeat on their success. However, they also have some volatilities that could see them decline somewhat in 2025.

Their rotation, while improved, still bares enough question marks to not be entirely comfortable with, and their lineup is strong at the top but a mix of recent underperformance as well as potential growing pains from promising future talent could make it less productive than they anticipate it to be.

At the end of the day, the two teams ahead of them just have more proven entities to their name.

2. Minnesota Twins

2024 Record: 82-80, Finished 4th in AL Central

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Lineup vs. RHP/LHP

1. Matt Wallner, RF

2. Carlos Correa, SS

3. Byron Buxton, CF

4. Trevor Larnach, LF

5. Jose Miranda, DH

6. Ryan Jeffers, C

7. Willi Castro, 2B

8. Ty France, 1B

9. Brooks Lee, 3B

Notable IL: Royce Lewis

On paper, the Twins lineup can hang with anyone in this division and most across the league, however it’s core group of players have faced their fair share of recent injury woes that are a cause for concern.

Byron Buxton has as much talent as anyone in the league, with the potential to be 5.0+ fWAR player, with 20+ HR power, above average speed and elite defense. However, the 102 games he appeared in last season marked just his second-highest mark in his career.

In 58 games in 2023, Royce Lewis managed 15 HR, 52 RBI with a 154 wRC+. In 2024, he managed 16 HR and 47 RBI in 82 games. But that’s the thing, he’s only managed around half a season at his best. This year is also off to a bad note, a recent hamstring strain this spring will leave Lewis sidelined on Opening Day, according to Phill Miller of the Star Tribune.

Then there’s Carlos Correa, who’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career with a .310/.388/.517 slash line with a 4.3 fWAR and a career-high 155 wRC+.

However this was done across just over half the season (86 games). While his injury past is not as severe as that of Buxton and Lewis, he is coming of that year as well as his well documented two-failed physicals ahead of the 2023 season with both the Giants and the Mets.

Beyond the big three, Matt Wallner, Trevor Laranch and All-Star Willi Castro will look to build on their career years at the plate this upcoming season.

Then the stage will be set for former highly-regarded infield prospect Brooks Lee to improve upon his poor 62 wRC+ showing in 185 big league plate appearances in 2024 and look more like the 148 wRC+ hitter he was in Triple-A St. Paul.

Notable Depth/Bench

C Christian Vazquez, UTL Edouard Julien, UTIL Austin Martin, OF Harrison Bader

This bench unit will be impacted when Royce Lewis returns, but there is plenty of intrigue to be had with this unit.

Edouard Julien will look to bounce back in 2025 to the future key piece he was anticipated to be for the Twins future not too long ago. It’s just a matter of whether we see the 135 wRC+ bat he was in 2023 or the 80 wRC+ bat he was in 2024, which ultimately saw him spend his fair share of time in the minors.

Then there’s the new guy in town in Harrison Bader, who could act as platoon partner for either Wallner or Larnach, should Rocco Baldelli and co. want to go that route with either of them again. Or given Buxton’s injury past, there will likely be time to be had to in center field, where Bader can play solid defense, with 10 OAA at the position in 2024 with the Mets.

In what seems to be typical Twins fashion, their main two promising depth pieces are some of the most talented prospects in the game, but both have had recent injury issues.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, our No. 19 overall prospect, managed a 184 wRC+ across the upper minors last season but also had his year cut short due thumb surgery.

Then, Luke Keaschall, our No. 42 overall prospect, slashed .303/.420/.483 with a 158 wRC+ across the upper minors but underwent Tommy John late in the season. But with 2025 ETAs, both could make their mark on the Twins should health fall in their favor.

Projected Starting Rotation

Rotation Depth Chart on Opening Day

1. Pablo Lopez

2. Joe Ryan

3. Bailey Ober

4. Simeon Woods Richardson

5. Chris Paddack

The Twins staff is very top-heavy, led by one of the more impressive trios the MLB has to offer with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

While López will look to improve upon his down year, there were certainly worse performances out of big league starters. He still managed a respectable 4.08 ERA along with 3.65 WHIP and sub-1.20 WHIP.

He still gets the nod as the ace in this staff, and will look to get back to the sub-4.00 ERA arm he’d been in the four seasons prior to last.

Giving López as strong run for his money for the ace role is Ryan, who once again exceptional with a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 0.99 WHIP and .216 BAA in 23 starts last season.

Between López’s struggles and Ryan’s injury in the final stretch of the season, Bailey Ober was arguably the most reliable arm in this Twins staff last year.

In 178.2 innings across 31 starts last season, the 29-year-old righty threw to a 3.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .206 BAA. He’ll shoot for his fourth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA campaign in 2025.

Beyond that, the talent drops off a fair bit, with Simeon Woods Richardson constituting the clear No. 4 in this staff, after a low-4.00s ERA campaign last year.

Projected Bullpen

Bullpen Depth

1. Jhoan Duran

2. Griffin Jax

3. Cole Sands

4. Brock Stewart

5. Danny Coulombe

6. Jorge Alcala

7. Louis Varland

8. Elberson Castellano

Notable IL: Michael Tonkin, Justin Topa

While the Guardians have the best back-end unit in any bullpen, the Twins hold might have the next best thing in their power duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, who both landed in the Top 10 of our relief pitcher rankings for the upcoming campaign.

The fireball closer in Duran, may’ve had his worst season in his three big league campaigns, with a nearly 1.20 point hike in ERA from 2.45 to 3.64, but he still managed to throw at an overwhelming speeds, strikeout nearly 11.00 per nine, and was the product of a bit of bad luck with a 2.85 FIP.

Jax on the other hand, is coming off his best season by far. Across 72 outings in 2024, the 30-year-old right-hander threw to a 2.03 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, .181 BAA, 12.04 K/9 and just 1.90 BB/9. By every account he was one of the most difficult relievers for opposing hitters to square off against.

Beyond the dynamic duo in the very back, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcala and the newly signed Danny Coulombe are all arms coming off solid seasons and could very well handle some of the higher leverage sixth and seventh innings at any point.

Outlook

If all goes to plan for the Twins, we could be looking at the AL Central division title winners in 2025 as they can go toe-to-toe with most across the board as a team.

However, it’s hard to put this team on top of a power ranking based on talent alone, given everything we know about this teams availability issues in recent years. Still, this is a deep team that should certainly be in the postseason conversation this season.

1. Kansas City Royals

2024 Record: 86-76, Finished tied for 2nd in AL Central

Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Lineup vs. RHP/LHP

1. Jonathan India, 2B/DH

2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS

3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

4. Salvador Perez, C

5. Michael Massey, 2B

6. Hunter Renfroe, RF

7. MJ Melendez, LF

8. Maikel Garcia, 3B

9. Kyle Isbel, CF

Notable IL:

The Royals lineup is a game of polar opposites in a sense, with a very strong top half of the order and then a lower half that leaves a lot to be desired.

The top of the order is led by none other than the reigning AL MVP runner-up and best shortstop in the MLB in Bobby Witt Jr. While traditionally it would be hard to top a 10.4 fWAR season with a .332/.389/.588 slash line, the fact he’s still yet to turn 2025 and is only starting to enter his prime gives plenty of reason to think he still has this type of performance in him. And what’s even scarier…he could do even better.

Then there’s his right-hand man in Vinnie Pasquantino, who could be poised for a breakout campaign should he finally stay healthy for a full season, after a near 20 HR and 100 RBI season.

The grizzled veteran in Salvador Perez is aging like fine wine after yet another All-Star campaign in which he launched 27 HR and drove in 104 while hitting .271 with a .786 OPS.

Now the Royals can finally say they have a leadoff hitter as well, after acquiring Jonathan India from the Reds early this winter. Whether the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year plays second, DHs or solves some of the Royals outfield woes in a corner, this is a name capable of hitting 15+ HR, 60+ RBI with a .250 AVG and a .750 OPS.

An unsung X-factor of this Kansas City lineup comes in the five hole with Michael Massey on the backs of an above average season (102 wRC+) and impressive postseason. Should he once again post a wRC+ above 100, it would mean the Royals have a majority of their starting nine above average rather than below.

If they can manage to get some sort of production from one of their six through nine hole hitters, perhaps from MJ Melendez or Maikel Franco, this lineup suddenly becomes far deeper.

Notable Depth/Bench

C Freddy Fermin, UTL Nick Loftin, OF Dairon Blanco, OF Nelson Velazquez

From a bench and depth point of view, the Royals don’t have a crazy unit to boast, but that being said, the cupboards aren’t bare.

Freddy Fermin offers at the very least a solid defensive backup to Perez after being nominated for a Gold Glove behind the plate this past season. However, after a season in which he hit .271, there’s reason to believe he may not be simply just a defensive specialist.

Dairon Blanco at a 94 wRC+ isn’t a liability offensively and when you add on the fact that he could swipe 30+ bags in a season, he’s suddenly has solid utility coming off the bench or possibly in a platoon role if need be.

Then, Nelson Velázquez, who FanGraphs ZiPS model projects at 17 HR, 60 RBI and a 99 wRC+ could be an answer for the Royals in a platoon role or at the very least a bench piece.

The big question here will be whether or not Jac Caglianone, our No. 29 overall prospect, will get some mid-season call-up consideration after the .529/.636/1.235 slash line he posted this spring despite currently being given a 2026 ETA from our prospect expert Aram Leighton.

Projected Starting Rotation

Rotation Depth Chart on Opening Day

1. Cole Ragans

2. Seth Lugo

3. Michael Wacha

4. Michael Lorenzen

5. Kris Bubic

Notable IL: Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright

The biggest reason for the Royals immense turnaround season in 2024 was due to a rotation that finished second in the league ERA, fourth in FIP, tied for fourth in WHIP, sixth in BAA and second in fWAR.

Similar to their AL Central counterparts just behind them on this list in the Twins, they too are led by a strong top three; Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.

On the back of a brand new extension, the All-Star Ragans is coming off a career-year in his first full campaign as a starter. In 186.1 innings across 32 starts, the Royals ace posted a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, .212 BAA and 10.77 K/9.

While he may not have had the best stat line from a Royals starter in 2024, his make up at a more youthful state of his career inevitably makes him their ace of the future and one of the leagues best aces altogether, and a 0.90 ERA when the lights shone brightest in October proved just that.

Lugo was the guy who actually led this team from a numbers standpoint with a 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP and a 1.09 WHIP in 206.2 innings of work, on route to a Cy Young runner-up finish.

Whether or not he can be that same guy in 2025 remains to be seen, but this has been a solid sub-4.00 ERA arm, both in the rotation and in the bullpen for a majority of seasons in his career, making him a safe bet to continue to deal to that degree yet again.

Then there’s Wacha, who’s since signed a new deal to remain in Kansas City after posting his third consecutive sub-3.50 ERA. He’s been a healthy arm for a majority of his career and when you pair that with a mid-3.00s ERA, then suddenly you have one of the best middle-of-the-rotation guys in all of baseball.

After that, the Royals staff continues to have some strength with the likes of Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic solidly locking down the bottom two roles.

Projected Bullpen

Bullpen Depth

1. Carlos Estevez

2. Lucas Erceg

3. Hunter Harvey

4. John Schreiber

5. Angel Zerpa

6. Chris Stratton

7. Sam Long

8. Carlos Hernandez

Notable IL: James McArthur

This time last season the Royals were operating with a very much bleaker bullpen. However after the deadline acquisitions of Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg and the offseason signing of Carlos Estévez, the Royals have a unit not to be taken lightly by any means.

Erceg will look to build on the excellent numbers he put up as a Royal once he was given the reins as the closer and no longer living in shadows of one of the best young relief talents the league has to to offer in Mason Miller.

The 30-year managed a 2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.84 WHIP and .194 BAA with 11 saves in 25.0 innings of work after landing in Kansas City after the trade. Whether or not he shares the closing duties with Estévez in 2025 remains to be seen. What doesn’t though is the dominance that Erceg is capable of.

Then there’s Estévez, who brings the Royals from no real closing options this time last year to two with him and Erceg. Is he the flashiest arm? No. But does he have over 50 saves over the past two seasons and a sub-3.00 ERA season in ’24 under his belt? He sure does.

Pair that with the veteran Hunter Harvey, who’s now healthy and fresh off a solid mid-3.00s ERA campaign and suddenly the seventh to ninth innings are confidently covered.

Then names like John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa and Sam Long all have some solid performances in 2024 to build off of and could be solid complimentary pieces to the anchoring trio.

Outlook

After a 30-win turnaround season last year and the fact J.J. Picollo and the front office didn’t view this as just a miracle-type fluke by finding ways to improve this roster heading in 2025 says a lot.

They have a strong front-end of the rotation, a strong relief core and lineup led by the one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Are they a perfect team? No. But have they done enough to dream on another 86-win season or better? For sure they have.