Is This a Make-or-Break Year for MJ Melendez?

MJ Melendez went from a mid-tier prospect in the Kansas City Royals‘ system to a top 50 prospect in all of baseball over the span of about 10 months. Justifiably so, as the catcher launched 41 home runs across two levels in only 124 games back in 2021.

The excitement around Melendez and Bobby Witt Jr. gave Royals fans an idea of what the foundation could look like moving forward. An elite, all-around shortstop paired with a power bat behind the plate had the makings of a great duo for years to come.

While one blossomed into what was promised, the other faces the most important season of his career.

Since 2021, we have learned a lot about Melendez. We now know that his development behind the plate stalled, and the move to a corner outfield position has not gone as planned. His value has always been driven by an ability to hit, which is another area that has underwhelmed.

As Kansas City continues to improve and strive toward a divisional title, their patience will run thin. How long can you wait and see if a player will figure it out? Outfield is a weakness for the Royals, and a shake up is right around the corner. This season is looking like a make-or-break year for Melendez.

What Has Gone Wrong For Melendez?

For a player who hit 41 home runs in one minor league season, Melendez has not seen that game power translate to the majors.

Across three MLB seasons (412 games), he’s hit a total of 51 home runs, averaging about 17 per season. Those are respectable numbers, but it’s far from the output that many were expecting to see.

You would think playing his home games in Kauffman Stadium could be a factor in his suppressed numbers, but Melendez has actually performed better in his home ballpark throughout his career than on the road.

In roughly the same number of at-bats, his .742 OPS and 29 home runs at home are far better than his .656 OPS and 22 home runs on the road.

So, why isn’t he tapping into more power? We know he makes the type of impact that should translate to better numbers. A career 91.8 mph average exit velocity and 10.2% barrel rate check the boxes for power, and although he strikes out at an above average rate, that hasn’t held back other power hitters.

The issue, specifically last season, was an inability to do damage on pitches in areas of the zone he should be capitalizing on.

Thanks to our friends at Baseball Savant, we are able to see Melendez’s average exit velocity (left) for each zone along with his average launch angle (right) from 2024.

By no means are these numbers bad, but they do not translate to the power output you might expect. For a player whose power carries so much of his value, Melendez was not lifting the ball enough to fully reach his power potential.

The graphic above highlights every hit with a 93 mph exit velocity and 19 degree launch angle, which is what Melendez did on pitches inside and middle.

This event has produced a .394 batting average, but only 0.2% of the balls hit with this exit velocity and launch angle have left the yard. Melendez hit five of his home runs on pitches middle-middle, but he produced over a 45% groundball rate on middle-outside, middle-inside, low-outside, and low-inside.

Often times what makes power hitters great is their ability to do damage on mistake pitches, and Melendez simply did not do that. He’s also struggled with breaking balls throughout his career, posting a sub-.200 batting average on spin and has relied heavily on hitting fastballs.

Being the type of player to hunt fastballs isn’t necessarily a bad thing and many players have put together great careers doing so. But, that profile can lead to some up-and-down play, especially when you aren’t turning fastballs into home runs at a higher rate.

Despite the mediocre numbers and poor defense, Melendez can still turn it around. He is entering his age-26 season and has too much talent to write off.

Improvements for 2025

I’ll go ahead and get this out of the way: Defensively, Melendez has been brutal. Moving to the outfield has not looked natural, but a player with Melendez’s athletic ability can make improvements over the course of one offseason. But I need to see it before I’ll believe it.

As we have already established, the bat is what really matters with Melendez.

I’m sure you have guessed it by now, but power is the focus here. While I do not think Melendez suddenly hits 40 home runs, getting to 25 is possible with a few adjustments that I think he could make. We have already seen one adjustment taking place this offseason.

A quieter, simplified, and more controlled swing change is currently underway. Anne Rogers of MLB did a fantastic job highlighting the change and how a simplified swing gives Melendez better timing.

Before, Melendez had a fairly drastic leg kick with lots of moving parts that made it difficult for him to get everything in rhythm. This could be why he had trouble adjusting from fastballs to breaking balls.

The hope is that a simplified swing can lead to more contact. Does the trade-off mean less power? Maybe, but for a player as talented as Melendez, I think he can still reach the exit velocities he’s put up in his first three big league seasons. How quickly he can get comfortable with the change and adjust will be key to his production output.

No one is asking Melendez to hit .275 or 40 home runs. Strides toward being a better hitter and turning more hard-hit balls into home runs isn’t too much to ask for, is it?

Final Thoughts

By all accounts, Kansas City loves Melendez and what he brings to the clubhouse. However, that can only go so far.

The Royals already have a soft-hitting outfielder in Kyle Isbel, but he plays a high-level centerfield. How much longer will they be content with rolling out an outfield of below league average bats? I doubt much longer.

Work needs to be done, but I do think Melendez has the talent and work ethic to improve. His willingness to change swings and try something different was needed, and I am glad to see he’s willing to make a change. You can’t say that about all players.

Plenty of teams will be lining up to trade for Melendez if he does ever become available. Let’s hope he can put together the season I think he’s capable of and show Kansas City why he deserves a place in this team’s future.