Riley Greene is on His Way To Becoming One of the AL’s Elite

Throughout the past few seasons, fans of the Detroit Tigers haven’t had much to root for. Until this season, the Tigers were in the midst of a losing streak, as the team had finished with a losing record for seven straight seasons. The worst of those seasons was the 2019 campaign, when the Tigers saw themselves finishing with an abysmal record of 47-114.

However, there was a positive takeaway from the 2019 season, in the player Detroit selected in the first round.

That player was outfielder Riley Greene.

Since making his way to the Major League roster, Greene has slowly become one of the more underrated players in baseball, topped off by his first All-Star selection in what was his best season to date.

Let’s take a closer look at the tools and skills that are transforming Greene into one of the AL’s rising stars.

Breaking Down Greene’s Bat

Riley Greene’s rise to the top has happened incredibly fast, and it’s no surprise given his prospect status. Being a former first-round pick, Greene has always had the tools to be a superstar, but he took his game to a new level in 2024.

At just 23 years old, Greene found himself as the centerpiece of the Detroit Tigers’ surprising playoff run, and he made the most of it.

In 137 games, Greene hit 24 homers, walked 11% of the time, slashed .262/.348/.479 with a .357 xwOBA, 135 wRC+, and posted an fWAR of 4.0.

For any player, this stat line is very impressive, but for a 23-year-old, this level of play could be a sign of even better things to come. His 135 wRC+ ranked 20th in baseball, and 10th in the American League, which really speaks to the level of play he showcased this season.

Digging deeper into his game, we also see that Greene registered some of the best batted-ball data in the league.

His 13.4% barrel percentage was an incredible number, as it landed him in the 90th percentile. On top of the impressive barrel rate, Greene’s 47.1% hard-hit rate was also among the top of the league.

These numbers have also been steadily climbing over the last few seasons. His barrel percentage alone saw an impressive 2.1% increase from 2023.

Greene also saw a spike in his power last season, which could largely be attributed to his steep increase in launch angle. His launch angle saw an increase from 6.6 degrees to 12.2 degrees this season, which helps explain his increase in homers.

If you take the rate at which Greene homered last season and apply it to the 137 games he played in 2024, he was projected to hit just 15 home runs. Greene instead slugged 24.

An increase that steep could very easily point to his launch angle playing a huge factor in his newfound power.

You can also see the effect of his launch angle adjustments in the rest of his batted ball profile. His fly ball rate saw a huge spike from 21.8% to 27.7%.

This was alongside his ground ball rate dropping from 48.9% to 43.6%. These changes reflect his change in launch angle and the increase in homers he saw last season.

Not only is Greene’s success largely due to his batted-ball skills, but he also has an impressive eye at the plate.

His chase rate in the 2024 season was just 23.1%, which landed him in the 85th percentile.

While his whiff rates and strikeout rates have shown themselves to be concerning at times, these are all marks that will improve with time.

Greene’s passive approach is also notable, as his swing percentage of 44.3% was in the lower portion of the league last season. This could end up leading to more walks in the future. Greene just has to be careful not to become too patient, and miss the better pitches he’ll see.

By fWAR, he was the 16th most-valuable player in the American League last season.

He was just behind some of the game’s best hitters in Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman, and ahead of players such as Julio Rodriguez and Jose Altuve.

Even better, when you compare his 135 wRC+, Greene topped all of those star players listed above.

When you look at the data, it’s easy to see how good Greene truly is. His ability to consistently barrel the ball in the air, and be patient at the plate are huge reasons for this.

How Much Better Can Greene Get?

After diving into Greene’s numbers and improvements, I’m left with the question: How much better can Riley Greene get?

As I touched on previously, Greene has improved in every season he’s played to this point.

His barrel rates, launch angle, and overall power numbers have been steadily climbing since his rookie campaign. This is all while his plate discipline has been improving, with his strikeout rate dropping, and his walk rate increasing.

Greene’s ability to flash more power throughout every season he plays is worth taking note of, and it’s especially encouraging that this hasn’t affected his approach at all. Usually, when players hit for more power, they tend to see the opposite trend.

If this continues, Greene has a real shot to be in the American League MVP conversation in the 2025 season. At his peak, Greene has the potential to post a 140 or higher wRC+, which would put him even closer to the top of the league.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Greene performs with some more lineup protection as well.

The Tigers have added Gleyber Torres this offseason, and players such as Parker Meadows and Kerry Carpenter have shown the tools to be very good hitters.

Considering the Tigers finished 21st in team wRC+ last season, these improvements will be key for their success. Getting Riley Greene protection in the lineup should take away pressure to perform, and make him even better next season.

Given the fact that Greene hasn’t had a season where he hasn’t improved thus far, I have faith that this trend will continue. Especially considering his newfound power, we may be looking at one of the American League’s best in 2025.

Riley Greene has become the face of the new age Detroit Tigers, and it’s going to be a sight to see when he reaches his full potential.