Which Starter Will Pop for the Guardians in 2025?

For years, the Cleveland Guardians have focused their organizational efforts on pitching. They’ve developed plenty of the game’s better starters in recent memory, such as Corey Kluber, Shane Bieber, and Tanner Bibee. Out of those three players, two were Cy Young winners with Cleveland: Kluber (2014, 2017) and Bieber (2020).

This upcoming season, however, the Guardians rotation finds itself in a far more complicated place. Their rotation is mainly made up of inexperienced talent, with only one player in their projected Opening Day rotation having over three years of MLB service time.

Although he doesn’t have the most service time, on Opening Day, Bibee will be the team’s ace. He has been very good throughout his career thus far, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting just two years ago.

The Guardians should also get Bieber back into the mix later in the 2025 season, as he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery.

Yet, aside from those two, who could take the leap next to become one of the team’s top arms?

Gavin Williams

The first arm that could take a step forward in 2025 is right-handed pitcher Gavin Williams.

Williams, a former first-round pick by the Guardians back in 2021, always showed the potential for a very promising future once he reached the major leagues. However, during the 2024 season, he faced some trouble for the first time in his career.

In 76 innings for the Guardians this past season, Williams recorded a 4.86 ERA, 84 ERA+, 23.8% strikeout rate, 1.37 WHIP, and 1.3 fWAR.

Williams certainly has the most raw potential of all the young arms in the Guardians rotation, given his former status as one of the game’s top prospects. However, this raw potential has yet to translate.

For one thing, Williams struggles to limit hard contact, which could become a big problem. His 44% hard-hit rate ranked in the bottom 11% in all of baseball, which certainly doesn’t live up to his first-round reputation.

His opponents also produced an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph, which ranked in the bottom 5% of the league. If this trend continues, it’s more likely that Williams will see even more regression this upcoming season.

There are things to be excited about with Williams, however, as his arsenal is very interesting. He produces an elite 7.2 feet of extension, which could make his fastball play better. His fastball has 15.3 inches of ride, while also having 11.2 inches of horizontal movement.

While this isn’t an elite fastball shape, it does leave room to set up his other pitches well. His second most used pitch last year was his curveball, which has looked solid at the big league level. It produced an opponent xwOBA of just .240 last year, alongside a whiff rate over 30%.

There’s also room for improvement in his control, with his 9.6% walk rate in 2024 allowing for more unnecessary runners. This surely contributed to some of his struggles.

While Williams has struggled in some aspects of his game, his raw arsenal and pedigree as a former first-round pick make him an intriguing player in the Guardians’ rotation in 2025.

If he can continue to use his arsenal to the best of its abilities, while making improvements to his game, he could take a leap forward next season.

Luis Ortiz

The second arm who has the potential to take a step forward next season is righty Luis Ortiz.

Back in December, the Guardians made a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates that sent Luis Ortiz to Cleveland along with a pair of minor league arms, in exchange for first baseman Spencer Horwitz.

During his time with the Pirates, Ortiz was often used as both a starter and reliever, showing promise in both roles. He threw 135.2 innings, recording a 3.32 ERA, 126 ERA+, 19.2% strikeout rate, and 1.11 WHIP.

The place where Ortiz shined the most was within his arsenal.

Ortiz relies on three different types of fastballs: a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a sinker. Out of these three, Ortiz just barely relies on his four-seamer the most.

In 2024, he threw the four-seamer 26.8% of the time, with opponents recording an xBA of .207 against the pitch. He’d also post a .307 xwOBA, a 41.4% hard-hit rate, and a strikeout rate of almost 27%.

While those numbers aren’t the caliber you’d see from a frontline starter, metrics like that will certainly play.

His sinker and cutter produced some positive metrics, too, but they appeared to be outperforming the data. For example, his sinker produced an opponent wOBA of .310, compared to an xwOBA of .375.

His slider, however, may be the most interesting piece of his arsenal. While the pitch produced a negative run value, the metrics across the board are encouraging. Opponents posted an xwOBA of just .271 against the pitch, alongside a whiff rate over 30%.

If Ortiz’s slider continues to produce such positive metrics, there’s a good chance this pitch could help him become the pitcher the Guardians expected him to be when they made the trade for him.

He’s also done a better job at limiting hard contact, unlike some of the other pitchers in the Guardians rotation. His hard-hit rate of just 37.7% was near baseball’s 60th percentile, which was far higher than both Williams and Lively (more on him in a moment).

It may also help Ortiz if he can focus on starting for a full season, instead of transitioning from a reliever to a starter mid-season, like he did last year with the Pirates.

Ortiz’s profile is very interesting, and with some fine-tuning in 2025, he has a real shot at becoming the type of pitcher the Guardians are looking for. His metrics are positive, and considering he’s going to spend plenty of time in the Guardians’ pitching lab, I have a lot of faith in Ortiz.

Ben Lively

A slightly older arm who could take a step forward for the Guardians next year is right-handed pitcher Ben Lively.

Lively spent most of the 2024 season as the Guardians’ number two starting pitcher, a role that suited him surprisingly well. After all, he had never before made more than 21 starts in a season in either MLB or the KBO.

In 151 innings, Lively pitched to a 3.81 ERA, 107 ERA+, and 1.24 WHIP. While these numbers are very solid, his underlying metrics lead me to be more cautious about his future.

For starters, Lively allowed a decent amount of hard contact last season. His 41.5% hard-hit rate was an alarming mark, which could lead to some regression. He also ranked in the bottom 7% in all of baseball in whiff percentage and chase percentage. However, Lively did manage to limit barrels, pitching to just a 6.5% barrel rate.

While the hard-hit rate could be something to monitor, the real problem lies within his arsenal.

His most used pitch was his four-seam fastball, which got crushed in 2024. The pitch generated a -2 run value, with an xwOBA of .395 and a hard hit rate above 56%.

His fastball being this concerning could also lead to some regression from Lively next season, especially given that it’s his main pitch.

Something positive to note is that Lively’s second most used pitch, his sinker, was very good.

Finishing just 2.4% behind his four-seamer in usage, Lively’s sinker generated a run value of +4, with a 25.4% strikeout rate, and opponents posted an xwOBA of just .280 against the pitch.

If Lively can rely slightly more on his sinker, and less on his four-seamer, he’ll likely be in a far better position to succeed in 2025.

Despite the underlying numbers leading me to be more concerned about some aspects of Lively’s game, he still had a very good year. If he can continue to refine his game, Lively could take a bigger step toward being a reliable piece for the Cleveland Guardians this upcoming season.

Other Pitchers Who Could Take the Jump

Williams, Ortiz, and Lively aren’t the only arms who could potentially take a step forward for the Guardians, as they have a plethora of other under-the-radar arms as well.

The first of these players is former top prospect Triston McKenzie.

Just two seasons ago, back in 2022, McKenzie busted onto the scene in the Guardians rotation, looking like he had the potential to be a future ace. He recorded a 127 ERA+ en route to a 3.4-fWAR season, showing promise every step of the way.

Fast forward to 2025, and the same pitcher we saw in 2022 is nowhere to be found. McKenzie is coming off of his worst season to date, recording an ERA+ of just 80, a -1.0 fWAR, and an ERA north of 5.00. He also ranked near the bottom of baseball in all of his underlying metrics, the most concerning being his 1st-percentile barrel rate.

While McKenzie is a pitcher who could still break through, that’s much less likely than it is for the arms ahead of him on the rotation depth chart.

On the other hand, 24-year-old lefty Joey Cantillo deserves some consideration.

Cantillo began his MLB career in the 2024 season, showing a decent amount of promise. He posted an ERA+ of 84, a 0.4 fWAR, and a 4.89 ERA. Although these numbers aren’t that impressive, his underlying metrics were far better.

While he didn’t qualify for many percentile rankings, Cantillo posted elite whiff and strikeout rates. He’s also a ground ball pitcher, which will play well with Cleveland’s defense. They ranked ninth in baseball in OAA last year, which will play to Cantillo’s strengths.

Cantillo also underperformed his expected stats by a significant margin, as his xERA was just over a full point lower than his actual ERA. He adds some deception with his extension as well, which can help his stuff play better than it would for most big league arms.

His limited experience in the majors makes me a little more cautious about getting too excited, but there’s certainly a lot to like within Cantillo’s numbers.

The final pitcher who could make some noise in the Guardians’ rotation would be lefty Logan Allen.

Similarly to McKenzie, Allen flashed a lot of promise early on in his career. During his rookie campaign in 2023, Allen was very good. He pitched to a 112 ERA+, 1.7 fWAR, and a 3.81 ERA in just 125.1 innings pitched.

However, Allen fell apart last season in 97.1 innings.

His ERA+ dropped to 71, as he recorded a -0.7 fWAR and an ERA of 5.73. Ranking near the bottom of all pitchers in nearly every area of his game, his struggles were very clear.

The promise he showcased during the 2023 season gives me some hope for Allen’s future, but just like McKenzie, he’s a lot more of a wild card than Williams, Lively, and Ortiz.

Which Pitcher Would I Bet On?

Given the data, if I had to choose one pitcher to take a step forward next season, it would be Luis Ortiz.

With Ortiz finding some success last season, and his underlying metrics pretty solid overall, I think he’s going to succeed within the Guardians’ pitching development system. He still has a ways to go, but being in a role where he can focus on starting should help him as well.

His slider and combination of three types of fastballs will also be valuable, as he has the ability to work the strike zone however he pleases. In order to succeed, he’ll need to continue to utilize his arsenal to the best of its abilities, while continuing to limit hard contact. If he can do this, I have all the faith in the world in Ortiz.

The profile that Gavin Williams brings to the table is also very interesting, but due to Ortiz having some more recent success in a larger sample, I feel better about him moving forward. Lively could also be very good, but due to some of the underlying numbers, I worry he’ll see some regression.

Overall, if the Guardians help any one of these three pitchers find some more success, they’ll be in a much better place to be competitive in the 2025 season.