Which MLB Division Race Will Be the Best to Follow in 2024?

With less than 40 games to play in the 2024 MLB regular season, baseball fans are in store for a dizzying conclusion to what one MLB insider is calling “the weirdest baseball season in a decade.”

Why is that? Well, look below at the tweet earlier in the week from ESPN’s Jeff Passan and you will see just how closely multiple teams are grouped as the postseason chase enters its final five weeks.

And not only are teams chasing postseason positioning, but that also includes where MLB teams will finish in the final division standings as well.

Teams that were expected to run away with divisions (we’re looking at you, ahem, Los Angeles Dodgers) are finding the path to the playoffs isn’t as easy as many believed back in March.

So which MLB division race will be the most interesting to follow for the remainder of the season? Let’s rank them from the least interesting to the most.

Note: All records listed below are heading into games of August 20.

6. National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers lead St. Louis Cardinals by 11 games, two other teams (Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs) by 11.5 games

Let’s face it … this one is all but locked up. According to FanGraphs, the Brewers have a 98.7 percent chance to win the division. Additionally, Milwaukee has a 99.0 percent chance to reach the postseason while the Cardinals are the next closest in the NL Central at 4.0 percent.

Simply put, it would take a collapse of historic proportions for Milwaukee to not enter October as the division champions. Despite losing Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles before the season began and Christian Yelich for the season with a back injury, the Brewers have been primarily flying under the radar while playing solid baseball under first-year manager Pat Murphy.

Will it be enough for the Brewers to be a significant contender for a World Series run?

That’s when the interest in Milwaukee will return.

5. National League East

Philadelphia Phillies lead Atlanta Braves by 7.0 games and New York Mets by 8.5 games

The Phillies went through a six-game losing streak that ended in early August and are just 11-17 since the All-Star break. However, it feels like Philadelphia still has plenty of weapons to ensure they can hold off the injury-riddled Braves and the up-and-down Mets.

FanGraphs lists Philadelphia with a 91.0 percent chance to win the NL East and a 99.4 percent chance to make the postseason. While Philadelphia’s remaining schedule has a combined .553 winning percentage (only the Dodgers and New York Yankees have a tougher slate remaining), the Phillies are a team that are battle-tested when it comes to this time of year.

And, as Philadelphia is primed to succeed for the rest of the season, it’s hard to see the Braves making a serious run at their seventh consecutive NL East title after losing another key player earlier this week in Austin Riley (out six to eight weeks with a broken hand).

4. American League West

Houston Astros lead Seattle Mariners by 5.0 games and Texas Rangers by 11.0 games

The Astros entered play on Tuesday losing just once in their last 10 games, looking like a team that is very motivated after dropping last year’s ALCS seven-game thriller to the arch-rival Rangers.

That streak has Houston with an 89.2 percent chance to take the division and a 91.1 percent chance to be in the postseason.

Houston, Seattle and Texas each face a schedule with a combined +.500 the rest of the way, so there isn’t an easy path for the Mariners to catch the Astros (who are an overall 18-10 since the All-Star break). Alex Bregman dodged a long-term injury with his elbow and there is still hope that Kyle Tucker will return to the team before the end of the campaign, so Houston could get stronger as September (and October) approaches.

Seattle has just a 16.2 percent chance to reach the postseason, not exactly a ringing endorsement for how the Mariners are projected to play as we move into the stretch run of the 2024 MLB campaign.

3. American League Central

Cleveland Guardians lead Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals by 2.5 games

This one has plenty of drama left, with three teams still battling to win the division. Cleveland (49.9 percent) has the best chance to walk away with the AL Central crown, but it’s hard to ignore what the Royals have done to position themselves for the postseason (and the plus-111 run differential that is the second-highest in all of baseball).

And Cleveland can’t just look in the rearview mirror and see what the Royals are doing.

Per BetMGM, Minnesota has the second-best odds to make the postseason (minus-600, well ahead of Kansas City’s minus-165). That should be no surprise as Byron Buxton is expected to return from the injured list by the end of August and Carlos Correa is working his way back from right plantar fasciitis, helping the Twins add some pop back into their lineup.

Keep an eye on a six-game stint in Kansas City starting on Labor Day as the Guardians come in for three games followed by a three-game visit from the Twins. That stretch could play a big role for all three teams the rest of the way.

2. American League East

New York Yankees lead Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 games and Boston Red Sox by 7.5 games

I know, I know. You’re looking at this and thinking, “The NL West is a better race than this?” Yes, and I’ll get to why in just a minute.

With the hardest remaining schedule (.574 combined winning percentage), New York’s path to winning the division is anything but easy.

Baltimore, by the way, has a .539 winning percentage, so that’s a difficult run as well. By the way, those winning percentages include a three-game set the two teams will play in the Bronx from September 24-26, and there will be plenty on the line during that series.

Will Aaron Boone finally be able to show his team is ready for a deep October run by clinching a bye with the division title?

Can Baltimore’s young guns and rebuilt rotation do enough to win the AL East for the second straight year?

This is the best two-horse division race to follow down the stretch, which could come down to game 162, but there is still a better division with three teams in the mix.

1. National League West

L.A. Dodgers lead San Diego Padres by 3.0 games and Arizona Diamondbacks by 4.0 games

If you think Aaron Boone is feeling the heat right now, just imagine how warm Dave Roberts’ seat must be feeling after an offseason spending binge has been short-circuited by injuries throughout the lineup and rotation.

While Los Angeles has been trying to piece things together (and will now hope Freddie Freeman can actually stay in the lineup while battling a hairline fracture in his finger), San Diego has been on fire, going 21-6 since the All-Star break (including a two-game sweep of the Dodgers at Petco Park in late July).

Also, the defending NL champs in Arizona are 21-8 since the Midsummer Classic and successfully have retooled their roster in a few key areas.

When it comes to intrigue, watching to see if the pressure of those season-long expectations finally cracks the Dodgers will be high drama. And, speaking of drama, break out the popcorn for San Diego’s final six games of the year (three at the Dodgers and three in Arizona). There could be plenty on the line for all three teams as the MLB regular season wraps up in the desert.