Edouard Julien Bouncing Back Is Crucial for the 2025 Twins

In 2023, Edouard Julien made quite the introduction to the baseball viewing population. It all started with an excellent showing in the WBC.

While it was a small sample size, just four games and 13 at-bats Julien put on a show. With two home runs and two doubles, he led the tournament with a 1.821 OPS. His hot start to the year didn’t stop there.

Julien would play in 109 games as a rookie that season and was a force for Minnesota on offense. He led the team in OBP and was fourth in OPS. He also finished fourth among all rookies that season in wRC+ at 135.

2024 was a different story for Julien. He bounced between the majors and Triple-A St. Paul, playing just 94 games with the Minnesota Twins. He only hit .199 with an 80 wRC+ which was a considerable disappointment following a strong rookie campaign.

If you have followed the major league offseason closely, you know that there are a number of teams that have been fairly quiet. The Twins were one of those teams until recently signing two major league deals. A backup outfielder in Harrison Bader and a reliever in Danny Coulombe are good signings but not high impact ones. The Twins could get the equivalent of a high impact free agent signing with a bounce back from Julien.

What Went Wrong in 2024

Doing a dive into the batted ball data for Julien over the last two seasons shows some clues as to what went wrong in 2024.

What stands out here is that Julien hit the ball with much less authority in 2024. Hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both fell. That in turn led to a fall in his expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) which is a great measure for quality of contact. What is most bizarre however, is he hit the ball in the air significantly more in 2024.

Julien has posted average power metrics while in the majors. His numbers in both seasons with regards to exit velocity and bat speed are fairly average. In order for players with that type of profile to out slug their exit velocities, you want to see them pull the ball in the air a significant amount.

Despite hitting the ball in the air more (pulling it less), Julien’s numbers got worst. If you take a really close look at the numbers, one that didn’t change almost at all from year-to-year was launch angle sweet spot percentage. That number tells us how often a player hits the ball between eight and 32 degrees, the launch angles that do the most damage.

That number not changing makes two things clear. First, Julien hit a lot more “can of corn fly balls” in 2024. The fact that his launch angle sweet spot rate changed by less than half a percent but his fly ball rate jumped by over nine tells us that. Those can of corn fly balls had a significant impact on his xwOBA.

The second, is that he had significantly fewer hard hit ground balls. As stated earlier, if players with average power numbers are going to out slug their metrics they need to pull the ball in the air. However, instead of replacing ground balls with ones in that launch angle sweet spot Julien was hitting pop flies. Hard hit ground balls have a much higher chance of being base hits than pop flies.

Can he rebound in 2025?

The short answer is absolutely. Sophomore slumps are fairly common in sports. There is a very real chance that Julien just experienced a sophomore slump.

As a rookie, no one really knows about you. They don’t know your weaknesses, strengths, and you likely are not the focal point of their game plan (yet). That can change in year two, especially if you have as strong of an offensive season as Julien had.

If Julien wants to get back to the success he had as a rookie he needs to go back to who he is. His swing rate in MLB during 2024 was the highest of his career at any level. He has always been an incredibly selective hitter. In 2023, only four players swung less often than Julien.

Getting away from that in 2024 seemed to throw him off his game. His walk rate fell, he made worst contact, he just did not look like himself. It all starts with his approach at the plate, if he sticks to his guns in the batters box, he can get back to where he was in 2023.

Importance to Minnesota

The importance of a Julien bounce back for Minnesota is huge. This Twins infield has question marks all over it. If he is able to revert back to the 2023 version of himself, that can answer at least one of the question marks.

Currently slated at first base is Jose Miranda. Miranda had a decent showing as a rookie in 2022 but followed in with an injury riddled 2023. His 2024 was another decent showing. Should he stay healthy Miranda can be a productive first baseman.

Brooks Lee is set to be the everyday second baseman. Lee posted a 62 wRC+ in 50 major league games last season. Lee also spent a good amount of time on the injured list last season. Hopefully he settles in but it is hard to know what to expect from an inexperienced player.

The left side of the infield will be handled by Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa. Everyone is familiar with those two and their injury histories.

All of this to say that there are a lot of unknowns in this infield. Including utility man Willi Castro, if you asked me to pick a Twins infielder that will be available for 130 games this season I would pick Julien or Castro. Outside of Correa and Lewis, Julien has the highest offensive ceiling of this infield group as well.

Entering 2025, the Twins have to be praying for a bounce back from Julien. He can be the free agent signing that you never made.