Which Teams Are Best Suited To Shake Off Their Rough Start
These three teams have gotten off to surprisingly slow starts in 2025. Which of them is in the best position to turn things around?
With Major League Baseball nearly a month into its regular season, we’re beginning to see the best teams take shape and the struggling teams fall to the bottom of the standings.
Among the teams off to slow starts in the early going of the 2025 season, three teams stand out above the rest: the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, and Houston Astros.
All three of these teams entered the 2025 season with immense expectations, as they’ve all managed to put together some extremely talented rosters. Regardless of this, all three of these clubs have struggled mightily to find their footing.
Interestingly enough, for each of these three teams, the struggles have differed.
For the Orioles, it’s been their lack of pitching that’s hurt them. For the Braves, their struggles have mainly centered around a struggling offense and injuries. And the Astros have been plagued with the loss of two franchise cornerstones and have struggled to adjust without Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker leading the way.
Given the sheer amount of talent on each of these team’s rosters, they still can turn things around and sneak their way into the playoffs once we reach October. It may be challenging, but comebacks like these aren’t unheard of in MLB.
Without further ado, let’s dive deeper into these clubs’ struggles and decide whether or not they can turn things around to make a postseason run.
Stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 22.
Atlanta Braves: 9-13, 4th in NL East
Ahead of the 2025 season, the Braves had some of the highest expectations in baseball.
Many people viewed them as one of the few teams that could compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers and give them a run for their money in a playoff series. However, their struggles early this season have painted the opposite picture.
The Braves have faced large struggles on both sides of the ball this season, as they rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistic.
For example, their team’s wRC+ of just 97 ranks 21st in the sport, and their team’s ERA of 4.28 ranks 20th in baseball. For a team that had such high expectations, both of these numbers are incredibly concerning.
What’s Gone Wrong?
While the offense is the focal point of their struggles so far this season, they’ve actually been getting solid production from the majority of their star players. Marcell Ozuna, Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies have all produced at least a 100 wRC+ while hitting a combined 19 homers.
Even though the majority of their star power has produced, not all of their stars have shared the same success. Matt Olson had an extremely slow start to the season but is finally starting to round into form as of late. Alternatively, Michael Harris has struggled mightily, posting a wRC+ of 62 on the year.
In addition to the names mentioned, Jared Kelenic, Orlando Arcia, and Drake Baldwin have shared similar struggles. It also didn’t help that the team’s main offseason acquisition, Jurickson Profar, was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance.
It seems as though this Braves offense is struggling to put things together overall, which has caused them to rely heavily on success from the top of the order. While this hasn’t been the worst outcome, all it takes is one bad game from a few of their stars for the offense to fully fall apart.
The Braves’ pitching staff has also struggled to rely on its key players, with many of their top arms running into trouble early this season.
For example, last year’s National League Cy Young Award winner, Chris Sale, has been a shell of the pitcher we saw last season. He’s posted an ERA of 6.17 in just shy of 24 innings. Although he’s still striking out many batters, inducing chase, and keeping the walks down, he’s simply getting hit extremely hard.
Sale’s barrel rate is currently over 10%, and his average exit velocity is significantly higher than it was in 2024. His barrel rate nearly doubled from 5.6% last season, and his exit velocity has seen a 2.8 mph increase.
AJ Smith-Shawver has also run into some trouble early this season, as he’s pitched to an ERA above 4.60 so far. The only bright spot in this rotation has been Spencer Schwellenbach, who’s looked like a potential Cy Young candidate in the 31.2 innings he’s pitched, posting an ERA+ of 160.
The bullpen is where things begin to fall apart for the Braves’ pitching staff, as more than half of their relievers have been hit extremely hard. The most impactful struggle of these arms has come on the back of Raisel Iglesias, who’s posted an xERA over 7.00 in his nine appearances.
Once one of the Braves’ most reliable relief options, Iglesias seemingly can’t keep the ball inside the ballpark. He’s allowed four homers in just nine innings, which isn’t reliable from a closer.
Is There Hope?
Although their 9-13 start may say otherwise, I don’t think it’s nearly time to panic just yet. The Braves are too talented of a team to be this bad all season long, and it feels like a matter of time until their stars begin to find their footing once again.
While it was encouraging to see Spencer Strider finally return to the mound last week from his elbow injury, he will unfortunately miss more time after being placed on the injured list a few days ago with a hamstring strain. Still, it’s not expected to be a long-term absence.
Also, former NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is nearing a rehab assignment, meaning his return is on the horizon.
Baltimore Orioles: 9-12, 4th in AL East
Similarly to Atlanta, the Orioles have put together a very talented young core with plenty of big expectations. However, so far in 2025, the Orioles are not living up to the expectations placed on them.
With a duo of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman leading the team, it’s hard not to get excited about what the future may look like in Baltimore. This is especially true considering the Orioles won 100 games two seasons ago.
The 2025 Orioles were expected to be a far different squad from Orioles teams we’ve seen in recent memory, however, especially considering they lost two of their cornerstones from 2024. The loss of Corbin Burnes and the departure of Anthony Santander to a division rival both stung, and it helps explain the team’s slow start out of the gate.
What’s Gone Wrong?
Most people identified that pitching would be a problem for Orioles heading into the season, and that has been the case so far. The club currently ranks dead last in baseball in team ERA (5.43), which reflects the amount of moves they made to bolster the pitching staff during the offseason.
Charlie Morton, one of the team’s free-agent signings, has been arguably the biggest issue in this rotation. Morton, now 41 years old, has begun to see his age catch up to him. He’s regressed in nearly every metric, posting an ERA north of 10.00 in 20.2 innings to begin 2025.
Dean Kremer has also run into his fair share of struggles this season, although his issues haven’t been on the same level as Morton’s. Kremer has pitched to an ERA north of 6.40 in 19.2 innings, and he’s struggled to limit hard contact as well.
Aside from these two arms, the rest of the rotation has been pretty solid overall. Tomoyuki Sugano has pitched better than expected during his first taste of MLB, eating innings while pitching to an ERA+ of 109, a little bit better than league average.
Case Povich was cruising along with a nice start to his year until he surrendered seven earned runs in 3.1 innings of work in his latest outing. As a result, he saw his ERA balloon to a whopping 6.38. Hopefully he can shake off the rough start and get back to the form we saw prior to the blow up.
Zach Eflin has pitched much more like what the Orioles had hoped for, as his 125 ERA+ leads the rotation.
The Orioles will need to find serviceable innings from more than just three of their five starters to truly succeed. This is even more true after the recent injury update on Grayson Rodriguez, which indicates his road back to the mound may take longer than expected.
The team’s bullpen has been mostly lights out, with the only struggling arms being their closer, Felix Bautista, and lefty Cionel Pérez. Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez have combined for zero earned runs across 16.1 innings, which has helped alleviate some of the pressure from Bautista.
The Orioles’ offense has been the root of some more of their struggles. However, they’ve seen some fantastic performances early on from several hitters. Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Heston Kjerstad, Tyler O’Neill, and Ramón Urías have all posted a wRC+ above 122 (min. 50 PA), making a statement for the club offensively.
Mullins has been one of the better hitters in the sport to open the 2025 season, as his 207 wRC+ currently ranks fourth in the sport, above hitters such as Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. His 1.3 fWAR is also tied for the seventh-most fWAR generated by a position player so far this season.
When first reading the group of hitters at the top of the Orioles offense, your first question is probably this: Where are Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Adley Rutschman?
Henderson struggled mightily upon his return from the injured list, posting a 56 wRC+ and no homers throughout his first 10 games. He’s starting to shake off the rust and return to form, though, as his two homers over the weekend helped raise his wRC+ to 103 on the year. That’s a good example of how small of a sample size we are still working with this early in the season.
Rutschman has a 104 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR on the year to go with four homers but just seven runs driven in. Westburg has also been off to a slower start as he looks to return to the level of play that made him an All-Star last season.
The Orioles will still be hoping that Rutschman can reach the 20-homer, 130-wRC+ threshold that puts him in the conversation for the best catcher in baseball, although he hasn’t come close to this mark since 2023.
The Orioles’ youngsters are still searching for big-league success, most notably Jackson Holliday, who has stumbled early in the 2025 campaign. However, he’s still incredibly talented and should turn things around with some more reps in the majors. Perhaps his clutch grand slam last week can spark an offensive run in the coming weeks.
Losing Colton Cowser early in the season significantly hurt this offense as well. He should be sidelined for between 6-8 weeks, which is a huge blow to the offense.
Is There Hope?
As long as the starting pitching can stay consistent, their struggling stars on offense figure things out, and their prospects succeed at the highest level, the Orioles should be in a good place to turn things around in a strong way.
Their stumbling start to the season is likely nothing to be too concerned about.
Houston Astros: 11-11, 4th in AL West
Coming off the end of their streak of seven straight ALCS appearances, things were shaping up to be incredibly different for the Astros heading into 2025. They lost one of their stars, Alex Bregman, to the free agent market, as he ended up signing a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
Not only that, but the Astros lost another one of their superstars, Kyle Tucker, in a trade with the Chicago Cubs. Due to concerns regarding Tucker’s price tag once his contract expires after the season, the club decided it was best to part ways.
With the Astros’ offensive core now down to just Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, fans knew that this may be a very different year in Houston. With their season off to a slow start, this seems to be the case.
What’s Gone Wrong?
Unlike the two other teams on this list, Houston’s offense has been the obvious source of their struggles.
The Astros the 24th-best offense in baseball according to wRC+, as Houston’s mark of 89 is the lowest wRC+ among the three teams on this list. Out of players with at least five plate appearances, the Astros have just three hitters with a wRC+ above 105.
It comes as no surprise that the ever-consistent Jose Altuve leads the way, as he’s been the team’s best hitter so far this season. He’s hit three homers and slashed .303/.337/.427 to go with a 121 wRC+. Although these numbers are good on the surface, regression may be coming soon, as he’s vastly outperforming his expected stats.
For example, Altuve currently has a very large difference in his xwOBA and wOBA, with his wOBA being a whole .069 points higher than his xwOBA. He’s also posted a high BABIP of .353, which could also be a sign of some luckiness.
Although he’s still done very well, this will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses, as these large gaps in expected stats aren’t very sustainable.
Third baseman Isaac Paredes is third on the team with a 112 wRC+, fitting in nicely since coming over in the Kyle Tucker trade. As expected, Paredes has made quick work of the Crawford Boxes, with all three of his Astros homers coming on pulled fly balls to left field. It’s clear that Paredes has been a staple hitter for the Astros so far in 2025.
Even Yordan Alvarez, who’s not only one of the team’s best hitters, but one of the sport’s best overall hitters, has a wRC+ sitting at just 84 through 88 plate appearances. Given his stellar track record, expect that number to turn around quickly.
In the early part of his first season with the Astros, Christian Walker has been disappointing offensively. Walker was the one major splash for the Astros this offseason, but he’s currently slashing just .156/253/.260 with a 55 wRC+.
The Astros had also hoped to get good production from Yanier Diaz, their young star catcher, but they’ve got the opposite so far. Similarly to Walker, he’s slashed .149/.186/.224 with an even worse wRC+ of just 16.
On a positive note, after a very slow start from Cam Smith, who the Astros promoted to the majors with the hopes that he’d be able to make up for some of the lost offensive production from Tucker and Bregman, he has turned things around as of late.
He’s striking out nearly 30% of the time, but he currently holds the second-best wRC+ mark on the Astros at 115. He’s slashing .237/.308/.424 through his first 65 big-league plate appearances, launching two homers over the weekend against the Padres as well.
While their offense has been the area they’ve struggled the most in 2025, their starting pitching has also had a tough time.
Young righty Hunter Brown is the only arm in their rotation with an ERA under 3.90, as he’s pitched very well through 31 innings (1.16 ERA, 2.04 FIP).
Previously successful starters such as Framber Valdez, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco have all been hit hard through their first few starts, which hasn’t done the offense any favors. For a rotation this talented, these struggles are concerning.
The Astros have put together a very nice bullpen, with nearly all of their arms finding success in the early stages of this season. Most notably, Josh Hader seems to be back on track, as he’s pitched to a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings of work.
Bryan Abreu, Ryan Gusto, Steven Okert, and Bryan King have all also pitched to ERAs below 3.00, creating a dangerous group of reliable relievers for the Astros to turn to. This has been very important considering the struggles among ther starters.
Is There Hope?
All things considered, it’s clear that the departures of Tucker and Bregman are hurting this team more than expected. Likewise, their starting pitching struggles have been quite noticeable. While it may still be early, this slow start may mean that the Astros’ reign of dominance is coming to a close.
Who’s Most Likely to Turn it Around?
After taking a closer look at each of these three teams, some have larger concerns than others.
While the Orioles are an interesting contender for the team most likely to turn things around, I’m still a little hesitant to fully buy into the success of their top three starters in the rotation.
What’s more, to me, the Astros feel like the team that’s least likely to bounce back, as they possess less talent than the Braves and Orioles.
Not only that, but Altuve’s looming regression in production scares me, especially if the rest of the team still hasn’t come around by the time that eventually happens.
In the end, I think the Braves have the highest chance to turn things around. While their reliance upon the top of the order and the underperformances from some of their key players have really hurt them, I think it’s a matter of time until this lineup breaks through.
Their lineup is too talented to struggle as much as they have, and the same can be said for their rotation.
Strider will eventually return to the rotation following his hamstring injury, which will be a necessary boost for this pitching staff. He obviously makes the rotation look a lot better, as a top three of Schwellenbach, Strider, and Sale is as dangerous as nearly any rotation in baseball.
Not only that, but if the Braves can get Acuña healthy and back on the field before too much longer, he is yet another weapon for this talented offense. If that happens, and the team finally starts clicking, look out, because this team is still one of the more dangerous clubs in the sport.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…