Five Big Contracts Teams Will Be Shopping This Winter

Much of the MLB hot stove has been deadline-focused up to this point. 2025 contract options were picked up or declined, prospects were added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, and contracts were tendered (or not) to arbitration-eligible players.

Eventually, the trade market will start to pick up across the league as well. When it does, there are sure to be multiple teams out there shopping around some of the more expensive contracts.

There can be several reasons a team would want to do so. Perhaps the player hasn’t been providing enough value to make up for the price of the contract. Or maybe future plans for the player’s team have changed. It could just be as simple, though, as the team needing to save money for payroll.

Based on their situations, a few of those larger contracts may be more likely to move than others. Here are five such contracts that teams will be shopping this winter.

Five Big Contracts That Could be on the Trade Block This Winter

Nolan Arenado – St. Louis Cardinals

Back in February of 2021, the Cardinals made huge waves when they traded for Arenado from the Colorado Rockies for metaphorical peanuts. In doing so, they also inherited a monster contract.

For a while, the high price tag was worth it. Arenado provided ample run production in the middle of the St. Louis offense and his trademark elite defense at the third base position. But in 2024, things finally started to decline.

While he was still able to provide well above average defense, Arenado’s offensive numbers were far below his career averages last year. His .394 slugging percentage was the lowest of his 12-year MLB career while his 16 homers and 71 RBI were his lowest marks for a non-Covid shortened season since 2014.

Arenado turns 34 next year and still has three years and $52 million left on his contract, both big incentives for the Cardinals to shop him around, though his full no-trade clause would require his final approval. St. Louis has a lot of defensive versatility on their team and multiple options to shift over to third should they be successful in making a trade happen.

Jordan Montgomery – Arizona Diamondbacks

After an impressive 2023 season that was capped off with a World Series win, Montgomery was one of the most sought after free agent starting pitchers on the market. Everything that followed was not what the southpaw envisioned.

It began with a long, drawn out free agency process that saw Montgomery not sign until the day after the 2024 season began: a two-year contract, much shorter than desired, with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Montgomery later fired super agent Scott Boras as a result.

Then after having his season start delayed, Montgomery would miss time later in the season with a knee injury that knocked him out for most of the month of July. It was the first time he had been on the injured list since the 2021 season.

On top of all that, Montgomery wound up having the worst season of his MLB career. In 25 games (21 starts), he went 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.650 WHIP. His 15.6% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career while his 8.3% walk rate was his highest since 2018.

Montgomery is due $22.5 million in the second and final year of his contract and the Diamondbacks have a wave of young pitchers, plus Merrill Kelly, ready to keep taking steps forward in their development. Arizona may decide it’s time to move on from a contract that didn’t go quite as expected.

Josh Naylor – Cleveland Guardians

The case of Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor is certainly not one of a player who is aging or seeing his stats decline. In fact, he has been one of the best offensive players on the team outside of Jose Ramirez the last two seasons.

Naylor set career highs in batting average (.308), on base percentage (.354), and slugging percentage (.489) in 2023 while also garnering an AL MVP vote. And while his slash line dipped in 2024, he set different career highs in homers (31), RBI (108), and runs scored (84) as he also represented Cleveland in the All-Star Game.

That’s not the type of production a team is generally looking to get rid of. However, there are still reasons why a trade, especially while value is high, would make sense for the Guardians.

For one, Naylor is entering his final year of team control with the Guardians. That final year is projected to land at $12 million according to MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections for the 2025 season, a pricey contract for a team like Cleveland.

Additionally, the Guardians have players who can handle first base, where Naylor played a majority of 2024. Surprise breakout player David Fry, late-season call-up Jhonkensy Noel, and former top prospect Kyle Manzardo can all man the position at a much lower price. Plenty of teams can use first basemen and Naylor would be a good one to get.

Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins

Starting pitcher Pablo Lopez is another player that most teams wouldn’t want to give up due to production alone. Beginning his career with the Miami Marlins before coming to the Twins, he has been one of the most consistent starters in both leagues over the years.

Lopez has a career 3.91 ERA in 158 appearances, all starts, over seven seasons. He has started 32 games in each of the last three seasons and upon being traded to the Twins in 2023, was named to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career and also received votes for the AL Cy Young award.

Still in his prime heading into his age-29 season, Lopez’s issue also comes to cost. Minnesota signed him to a four-year contract extension that bought out his final arbitration year in 2024 and added the three additional years. The first year of his contract paid him $8.25 million, but the final three, starting in 2025, pay $21.75 million per year.

That is a ton of money for a small market team like the Twins, who ranked 19th in MLB in total payroll in 2024 according to Spotrac. Minnesota didn’t have the strongest starting staff in 2024, ranking 22nd in the league with a 4.36 ERA so losing their ace would be a tough blow to take, but they may not have much of a choice.

Luis Castillo – Seattle Mariners

Castillo falls into a similar category as Lopez. In eight seasons played for the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners, the three-time All-Star has been one of the top pitchers in all of MLB with a 3.56 ERA over 211 career starts.

And similarly to Lopez, Castillo also signed a big contract that bought out his final arbitration year and started off cheaper before escalating in price. Last year that contract paid him $24.15 million, which it will continue to do for at least the next three years.

The difference is that the Mariners are equipped to move on from Castillo if they choose to do so. Seattle starters led all of MLB in ERA at 3.38 in the 2024 season with young hurlers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo all having strong years.

Of course there’s one huge hurdle to any potential trade, which is the full no-trade clause that Castillo’s contract has in effect through the 2025 season. Castillo could approve a deal, though, so Seattle still might end up shopping his contract around the league.

Odds are the front offices of these teams have already started having discussions around these players and their large contracts as they make their roster plans for 2025. Should a deal actually be struck, it’ll be a very exciting day for the MLB Hot Stove.