Can Hunter Brown Become the Astros Ace?

The Houston Astros have been through significant roster changes throughout their dynasty years. George Springer and Carlos Correa were amongst the first to leave before Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander departed this past winter. As the team continues to restructure their roster, a shift toward a younger core is happening right before our eyes.

A transition toward a younger rotation is also underway with Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski slotted to take on larger roles, but veteran Framber Valdez is still the ace, right?

On paper, that could be the case, but with Valdez in the final year of his contract, the Astros will need Hunter Brown to take another big step this year. He could be viewed as the team’s ace sooner rather than later.

Brown, entering his third full season, has made strides each year and is on a trajectory that could make moving on from Valdez an easier decision than we expect. After posting a 5.09 ERA and 4.37 FIP as a rookie, Brown improved to a 3.49 ERA and 3.58 FIP in year two, leading me to believe another step in the right direction is in line for 2025.

What Changed for Hunter Brown in 2024?

No matter the talent, pitchers usually take some time to settle into the majors. Throughout the minors, a pitcher’s stuff can save him from being forced to work on his sequencing, resulting in challenges once he reaches the majors. For Hunter Brown, tweaks in his sequence and how he attacked hitters led to much better results in 2024.

While Brown’s four-seam fastball was still his primary pitch, adding a sinker to help him attack righties allowed for a more diverse arsenal. His sinker, which sits around 96 mph, like his four-seamer, produced plenty of ground balls while also helping make his four-seamer a better pitch.

That velocity at 95+ mph out of his hand now comes with two distinct movements, including a sinking action. Hitters struggle to identify the difference in time to square up the ball, resulting in plenty of ground balls against his sinker and a higher whiff rate – 29.4% in 2024 compared to 22.3% in 2023 – against his four-seamer.

A sinker is not the only pitch Brown added, as a slider popped up about 5% of the time. He has tinkered with a more horizontal moving pitch in the past but has not fully committed to it just yet. If he does, and it grades out well, watch out.

Of course, adding new pitches means a decreased use of others. We saw this with Brown’s curveball, which was reduced by roughly 50% but remained effective enough to produce swing and miss.

Instead of his curve, Brown leaning into his changeup against lefties was the right call. Not only did his changeup lead to a 30% whiff rate, but when batters did make contact, the average exit velocity was 83 mph, rarely causing any damage.

Changes in his pitch mix have made Hunter Brown closer to the best version of himself. In his rookie year, limiting hard contact was a problem. Yet the changes he made helped him keep batters off balance, leading to a high number of groundballs (48.5%) and, more importantly, taking impact off the baseball. A decrease from a 91 mph average exit velocity to 86 mph is a massive difference that ultimately made Brown as effective as he was.

Hunter Brown’s Outlook for 2025

Year three is oftentimes when we see pitchers truly put it all together and showcase just how high their ceiling is. Not only did the changes from last season catch our eye, but Brown has now had another offseason to refine those pitches and perfect his craft.

Spring training is always a case of “don’t read too much into the stats,” but we can always react to how a pitcher’s offerings move and how the location looks.

In his first appearance, Brown gave up some contact and was obviously still rusty. His second appearance? Four innings of no-walk, two-hit, six-strikeout ball.

More importantly than the raw stats, Brown was able to produce swing and miss and put batters away in different fashions. A high changeup, moving cutter, elevated heat, and a looping curveball. Confidence, and results to back it up, to trust your stuff no matter the pitch or batter is exactly what we all want to see.

The rave reviews going around spring training about Brown are more than just hype – they are true statements. A pitcher with five legitimate pitches, several of which produce plus swing and miss numbers, who also induces a high rate of ground balls, is going to be tough to beat.

Brown’s projections have him around a 3.70 ERA and FIP, but I think those projections are not able to account for the changes and growth Brown made during the season. His 2.26 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 71.2 innings during the second half of 2024 shows his ability and ceiling heading into 2025.

Final Thoughts

I hold the Astros in high regard. For a number of years, they have been able to remain in contention despite significant roster changes and a weaker farm system. However, I think it is fair to say 2025 is closer to a reset or retool year than an all-in year. Players will have a chance to prove they deserve to be part of the next wave of great Astros teams, and Hunter Brown has a chance to lead that charge.

As I mentioned before, Framber Valdez is in the final year of his contract. If Brown can prove to the Astros that he has developed into the ace that I think he can be, we could soon see the Astros move on from another cornerstone piece.