Colt Keith Can Help Take the Tigers to a New Level in 2025

Of all the talented young players in Detroit, Keith has the skills to make the biggest leap this coming season.

Colt Keith #33 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates his two-RBI double against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at Comerica Park.
DETROIT, MI - JULY 13: Colt Keith #33 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates his two-RBI double against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at Comerica Park on July 13, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The Detroit Tigers have officially turned a corner. After years of ineptitude, an improbable run propelled the Tigers into the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Heading into 2025, the standard of Tigers baseball is higher than it has been in some time.

A return to the postseason is the expectation, and several younger players must take a step forward in order for that goal to be reached. In my eyes, Colt Keith has the ability to make the biggest leap in development and production in 2025.

Keith, a 2020 fifth-round pick, reached top prospect status after posting a .932 OPS and 27 home runs across Double and Triple-A in 2023. His production led to the front office signing him to a pre-arb extension that locked him up through at least 2029 with team options through 2032. It was a commitment that spoke volumes about the talent the Tigers saw in him.

Overall, Keith strung together a promising rookie year, with a .260/.309/.380 slash line, good for a 97 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR. For a 22-year-old seeing major league pitching for the first time, that’s not too shabby. Considering Keith posted a .387 OPS prior to May, his numbers evened out pretty well.

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Of course, there are areas of the game where Keith needs improvement, but he showed enough to make me think a breakout is coming in 2025.

Keep in mind, Keith was learning a new position (second base) in 2024 after coming up as a third baseman. He’ll be moving to first base this year, but his defense is not what will take this Tigers team to a new level, it’s his bat.

Tapping Into Power

I think we can all agree Keith’s power, or lack thereof, was a bit surprising in 2024. After posting ISOs over .230 at each stop in 2022 and 2023, the power dissipated to a .120 ISO in the majors.

Essentially, Keith was hitting enough singles to help his average but not enough extra-base hits to bump his offensive value higher.

To reach his full potential, Keith will have to tap into the power he showed in the upper minors. The first step is hitting the ball harder, and the second step is lifting the ball with more regularity. Once those two start to align, I would suspect we see Keith pull the ball more, leading to more extra-base hits.

A big difference between his 2023 minor league season and 2024 major league season was how often he was able to lift the ball. His 44.4% groundball rate with the Tigers was too high and will need to drop in order for singles to turn into extra-base hits.

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Tigers fans might remember this exact situation from a few years back with Riley Greene. His first stint in the majors saw him post a 56% groundball rate before improving to 48% in 2023 and 43% last season.

Each year Greene lifted more and more balls, going from an average launch angle of 2.8 degrees to 6.6 and ultimately 12.2 last season. We saw how his power ticked up as his launch angle changed.

The point I’m trying to make is getting to your power can be difficult in year one. Major league pitches have more break and velocity to them, and the learning curve forces young hitters to find a place where they just try to stay alive.

Keith landed in that spot last year and did what he could to help the team. Now, we need to see him attack more and, as he gets more comfortable and confident, cause more damage.

Keith’s best month was clearly July when he slashed .322/.404/.644 with seven of his 13 total home runs, which you can watch here.

You’ll notice each of those home runs was to his pull side and came on very confident swings. Furthermore, all were on pitches under 90 mph except for two, which were 92 mph and 93 mph.

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In fact, velocity gave Keith some problems last season.

On pitches over 95 mph, Keith recorded 30 hits, but only four went for extra bases – all doubles. It was not a swing-and-miss problem, the contact was fine. Keith is not a player who is naturally prone to velocity issues, either. The issue was that he wasn’t getting under the ball enough, a fix that one can reasonably expect him to make in 2025.

Knowing Keith makes enough contact, and has shown the ability in the minors, I fully expect him to tap into more of his natural power. Time on task and growing more comfortable and confident should lead to him getting more “A” swings off, increasing his production.

Change of Positions

Fans, myself included, often underestimate how hard playing defense is at the highest level.

Keith only played 71 games at second throughout his time in the minors and was very much learning on the fly with the Tigers. While it was not always the smoothest transition, he ultimately graded out well for a player outside of his natural position.

When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres, the team announced that Keith would shift to first, at least for the 2025 season. While another position change might sound scary at the surface, I think it can help Keith in the batter’s box.

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First is a much easier position to learn than second. The double play around the bag is out of the equation, and he won’t have to make as many throws or calculate as many angles. Footwork is important, but Keith has the athletic ability to make a smooth transition.

With less focus on learning a difficult position, Keith can spend more time working on hitting. While I do not want to paint playing first as some cakewalk, we have seen much less talented players make the transition without much issue.

Keith’s 2025 Ceiling

Seeing a sophomore slump in sports is not uncommon. However, the talent Keith displayed in the minors and his advanced ability to hit is uncommon. We are not talking about a severely flawed rookie who has too many holes in his game. This is a top prospect who’s a few adjustments away from taking off.

Right now, Steamer has Keith projected for a .264/.325/.419 slash line, 15 HR, and a 112 wRC+. To put that into perspective, Matt Vierling hit .257/.312/.423 with 16 HR and a 108 wRC+ last season. While that would represent a good jump and a fine player, I think Keith has a higher ceiling in 2025.

One thing holding him back last season was not often playing against lefties. Part of that was A.J. Hinch preferring platoons, and Andy Ibáñez hitting well against lefties, while another part was protecting Keith early on.

However, Keith is not a platoon hitter. He only had 88 plate appearances against lefties in 2024, but a .305/.352/.366 slash line is pretty good for a rookie. He also slashed .306/.385/.524 off lefties while in the minors in 2023.

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With more consistent playing time, another year of development, and a couple of tweaks, Colt Keith could propel himself to become one of the best hitters in this lineup. Reaching 20 home runs (with many more doubles) is doable. I’ll go ahead and take the over on Keith’s projections for 2025.