The Rays Need Junior Caminero to Be a Breakout Star in 2025
If the Tampa Bay Rays are set to become a playoff team again in 2025, they need Junior Caminero to break out as a star.

Over the past few seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays have built a model for developing young, consistent talent, which has helped propel them toward success. With the team needing to operate with a small budget, this approach to producing players has been incredibly valuable.
The Rays’ talent has usually worked out, allowing them to record six winning seasons in the last seven years. However, the Rays are coming off of that one losing season, and they rely on in-house talent to return to the top.
Who better to help the Rays do this than third baseman Junior Caminero?
Caminero was acquired by the Rays back in 2022, when the team swapped Tobias Myers to the Cleveland Guardians. Since joining the Rays organization, Caminero has taken off. He was even ranked by some outlets as the number-one prospect in all of baseball.
Fast forward to 2025, and Caminero is preparing to play his first full big league season, and he’s looking to do some serious damage.
Caminero’s Stint in Triple-A
Caminero opened the 2024 campaign, heading back to Triple-A Durham, which came as a surprise to many people around the game. He had made his Major League debut at the end of the Rays’ 2023 season and with his success in the minor leagues, it was assumed he’d head straight back to the majors.
Despite heading back to Triple-A, Caminero made the most of it. In 53 games with the Bulls, the 20-year-old hit 13 homers, slashed .276/.331/.498 with a .361 wOBA, and a 111 wRC+.
While these numbers were a step down from Caminero’s past successes in the minors, they were still very good. The main area Caminero excelled in, however, was his batted ball data.
Caminero crushed the ball at every chance he got, producing eye-popping exit velocity numbers. His max exit velocity of 117.2 MPH was a very impressive mark, and it would’ve tied him at eighth on the max exit velocity leaderboard for qualified Major League hitters.
He also averaged an exit velocity of 93.3 MPH, which was equally impressive. If he were in the majors, this would’ve tied him with Austin Riley for 10th in the league among qualified hitters.
Caminero’s average exit velocity and max exit velocity weren’t the only batted ball numbers that were impressive. His hard-hit rate of 57.5% was incredible, especially for a 20-year-old Triple-A hitter. The same could be said about his 9.6% barrel rate, another impressive metric.
The only downside to Caminero’s time in Triple-A was that his plate discipline metrics weren’t nearly as impressive as the Rays had hoped.
He was relatively passive on pitches in the zone, swinging just under 69% of the time. On the contrary, Caminero expanded his zone often, swinging on pitches outside the zone at a 29.3% clip.
After seeing how Caminero performed at Triple-A Durham, the Rays made the decision to send him back to the big leagues, where his journey to becoming the franchise’s cornerstone continued.
Recapping Caminero’s Time in the Majors
After being promoted back to the Major Leagues, Caminero looked to replicate the damage he’d showcased throughout his time in the minor leagues. However, while he showed promise, he wasn’t quite the player he had been.
In 43 games, Caminero hit 6 homers, slashed .248/.299/.424 with a .309 wOBA, a 105 wRC+, and a 0.6 fWAR. Although these numbers weren’t anywhere near the level Caminero had performed in the past they were still solid overall.
When you take a closer look at the numbers, though, Caminero showcased a lot of promise.
Firstly, Caminero continued hitting the ball very hard at an excellent rate. His hard-hit rate of 45.7 was very solid. Although he didn’t qualify for many of the leaderboards, he would’ve been in the top 25% in the league.
Additionally, Caminero’s hard-hit rate was the same as Reds superstar shortstop Elly De La Cruz’s.
Not only was Caminero’s hard-hit rate very impressive, but his barrel rate was even more impressive. His barrel rate was 11.7%, showing just how impressive his batted ball metrics were.
Comparing this to the rest of the league, Caminero’s barrel rate would have ranked near the top 20% of the league had he qualified. His barrel rate was also the same as Anthony Santander, one of the game’s best power hitters last season.
The pitch Caminero succeeded against the most was fastballs. Against the pitch, he hit four of his six homers, posted an xwOBA of .346, and recorded an xSLG near .500.
Unfortunately, Caminero’s plate discipline concerns persisted into his time in the Major Leagues as well.
Both his whiff and chase rates ended up over 30%, which is a very concerning mark. I have faith that with more reps at the big league level, Caminero will fine-tune things, but this is something to keep an eye on.
His bat speed was very encouraging too, with his 77.2 MPH swing tying Yankees slugger Aaron Judge for the fourth-best mark in the league. This elite bat speed will make it far harder for pitchers to beat him with high velocity.
Caminero’s overall results trended more toward league average during his time in the big leagues this season, but the positive underlying numbers give me a lot of hope for the future.
Why I Believe Caminero Will Break Out in 2025
Given what we know about Caminero’s ceiling and the skillset he possesses, I’m very confident that he will be one of the top players in baseball by the end of the season. But, in order to do that, some things need to change.
First and foremost, Caminero needs to improve his plate discipline, and hone his approach.
While I remain confident that he can become a true star, doing this with high whiff and strikeout rates will be incredibly difficult. This is especially true if he gives pitchers the advantage by chasing out of the zone often.
His most egregious mark when it comes to expanding the zone, was his 38.6% out of zone swing rate against off-speed pitches. Not only this, but his 36.3% out of zone swing rate against breaking balls would also be very concerning.
With out-of-zone swing rates this high, it’ll be much harder for Caminero to become the elite hitter we’ve anticipated.
Another thing that could lead to Caminero having a lot more success in 2025 is his batted ball directions.
Caminero’s average launch angle last season was just 6.8 degrees, far below the mark needed to lead to more hits. Given Caminero’s significant power we’ve seen in his batted ball data, a higher average launch angle could allow him to become a 30-homer player.
The effect Caminero’s launch angle had on his game is glaringly obvious when looking at the directions of his batted balls. In 2024, his ground ball rate was just shy of 50%, which could explain some of the lack of production.
This high ground-ball rate is especially concerning when you see that his fly ball rate came in at 21.3%, and his line drive rate came in at just 17.3%. If Caminero can elevate the ball more in 2025, these numbers could see a sizable spike.
For Caminero, learning to pull the ball in the air in addition to elevating the ball will also be important. Not only does Tropicana Field have a notoriously short left field, but George M. Steinbrenner Field does as well.
Their left field wall comes in at just 318 ft, and with the Rays playing there during the 2025 season, pulling the ball in the air to left field will be very important. Last year, Caminero pulled just 32.3% of his batted balls, which was just over 9% less than the amount of balls he hit to center field.
If Caminero can maintain the extreme power he showcased throughout the 2024 season, while learning to pull the ball in the air, the sky is the limit for the player he can become in the 2025 season.
I think I speak for Rays fans everywhere, when I say I can’t wait to see how his season unfolds.