Kyle Manzardo Set for Breakout Year With Guardians in 2025

There is enough talent in Manzardo's bat for him to take a massive leap forward this season.

Kyle Manzardo of the Peoria Javelinas rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning during the 2023 Fall Stars Game between the American League Fall Stars and the National League Fall Stars at Sloan Park.
MESA, AZ - NOVEMBER 05: Kyle Manzardo #9 of the Peoria Javelinas rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning during the 2023 Fall Stars Game between the American League Fall Stars and the National League Fall Stars at Sloan Park on Sunday, November 5, 2023 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

“Never trade with Tampa Bay.”

Baseball fans hear it year after year. The Rays have built a reputation for executing perfectly timed trades that maximize value in ways few teams can match. However, their track record may not be as flawless as it’s often made out to be.

Let’s go back to the trade deadline in 2023 when the Cleveland Guardians traded starting pitcher Aaron Civale, in the midst of a career year, to the Rays in exchange for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo. It was a trade that looked risky at the time and did not age well for the Rays.

Over parts of the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Civale made 27 starts, posting a 5.17 ERA in a Rays uniform.

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Civale is now in to Milwaukee, while the Guardians have cleared room (and money) by moving Josh Naylor, opening the door for Manzardo. Manzardo, 24, saw action in 53 games as a rookie posting a respectable 98 wRC+, but I believe there is enough talent in his bat to take a massive leap forward in 2025.

Kyle Manzardo’s First-Half vs Second-Half Numbers

While Manzardo’s first taste of the majors was promising, there’s still plenty of untapped potential.

Throughout the minors, Manzardo displayed above-average power, eye for the zone, and contact. That’s a blend of traits that typically translates to a major league talent, and a good one at that.

In his short stint in the majors, Manzardo’s power numbers (.186 ISO), walk rate (5.8%), and strikeout rate (26.3%) were all poor compared to his minor league numbers. This is not too surprising, as most rookies see a decline before they adjust to major league pitching.

We saw a glimpse of Manzardo getting more comfortable and confident down the stretch:

Time FrameSlashHRwRC+Pull%Groundball%
First Half (87 PA).207/.241/.32905930.0%31.7%
Second Half (69 PA).270/.333/.540514748.9%26.7%

Although we are working with a small sample size, the improvement should be noted. In the first half, Manzardo struggled to find his timing and adjust to major league pitching, leading to another trip to Triple-A Columbus where we saw the return of the .800+ OPS hitter we know.

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Once recalled, Manzardo looked more comfortable and ready for the challenge. After posting only one multi-hit game in the first half, Manzardo had four in the second half.

In his first game back, he displayed his power, leaving the yard twice. His improved play carried into the playoffs as well where he slashed .316/.316/.526.

via Baseball Savant

For Manzardo to reach his full potential, he’ll need to develop more power. The easiest way to reach more power is by pulling and lifting the ball, two areas in which he improved in the second half. We saw his predecessor, Naylor, lean into this method and pull all but five of his 31 home runs in 2024.

As you can see from the graphic above, Manzardo started to impact the baseball more once returning from the minors, a step you love to see a young player take. Now, the key will be to pair this with a more consistent launch angle. That’s true for off-speed pitches in particular, against which he struggled to combine optimal launch angle with exit velocity.

In order to get off more “A swings” leading to a higher lift and pull rate, a batter has to be confident in what pitch they are seeing and get to an optimal swing early. This typically comes with more time on task and settling in.

There’s no question Manzardo has the talent. The Guardians are one of the best organizations at identifying talent and getting the most out of their players, and I trust their internal evaluations. The decision to move Naylor was partly driven by their belief in Manzardo’s potential.

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Signing veteran first baseman Carlos Santana should help the youngster learn while offering an insurance policy if all does not go as planned.

Areas for Improvement

Every rookie has aspects of their game that need improving, and the same can be said about Manzardo. While the adjustments I highlighted above are key to unlocking his full potential, making contact is the precursor to finding more success.

The good news: Manzardo handled fastballs well in 2024, posting a .328 average (.261 xBA), four home runs, and only a 20% swing-and-miss percentage. However, the same can not be said about breaking balls. A concerning .113 average, 35.1% swing-and-miss rate, and 86.3-mph average exit velocity will not get it done.

Sure, some players are going to be weaker against certain pitches, but the difference needs to be minimized.

If Manzardo does not prove he can produce better against breaking balls, he is going to see more and more of them each at-bat. Sucking the power out of a hitter like Manzardo is a pitcher’s primary goal, and limiting that hole will be critical to his growth.

At the major league level, pitchers not only throw better breaking balls but also locate them with greater command than in the minors. As a result, many hitters struggle to make solid contact and see their walk rates decline.

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Yet, given Manzardo’s strong eye for the strike zone in the minors, I expect his walk numbers to improve as he gets more and more at-bats.

2025 Outlook for Kyle Manzardo

The Guardians signing Santana helps Manzardo in more ways than one. Not only does he get to learn from a polished hitter, but Santana can show him a thing or two about first base defense. Santana has long graded out as one of the better defenders at first, while Manzardo could use work.

Santana filling first allows for Manzardo to shift primarily to DH, a move that I think will help him adjust. His focus will not be fully taken away from improving on defense, but allowing for Manzardo to shift his efforts towards hitting only will allow for more time to perfect what brings the Guardians the most value.

According to Steamer, Manzardo is projected play 100 games with a .240/.327/.440 slash, 18 HR, and a 119 wRC+. His projected 10.8% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate are also improvements that align with the breakout I think could happen. For added context, Naylor posted a 118 wRC+ in 2024, although with more power.

Where Manzardo will ultimately land in the batting order is unclear, but RosterResource currently has him slated to hit second, sandwiched between Steven Kwan and José Ramírez. Considering how much Kwan gets on base coupled with the threat of Ramirez, Manzardo should get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Final Thoughts

Despite what the Guardians look like on paper year in and year out, they tend to find success. An organization as well-oiled as the Guardians has earned my trust, and if they see Manzardo as a key fixture in this lineup, there are reasons why.

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No, I don’t expect him to provide what Naylor did. Replacing that level of power and energy in the clubhouse is hard to do. Cleveland is not asking him to be Josh Naylor, just the best version of Kyle Manzardo.

I expect the Guardians to be right in the thick of competing for the AL Central. Kansas City and Detroit looked improved, while Minnesota could bounce back. Having Manzardo take a big step forward will be key to the Guardians taking home another divisional title.