Evan Carter Looks To Put Injury-Shortened 2024 Behind Him

Carter will look to establish himself as a key piece of the Rangers lineup after an injury-shortened 2024 season.

Evan Carter of the Texas Rangers doubles against the Houston Astros.
ARLINGTON, TX - APRIL 5: Evan Carter #32 of the Texas Rangers doubles against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field on April 5, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

The Texas Rangers went from winning a World Series to finishing 78-84 in 2024, good for third place in the AL West.

While poor performance was part of the reason, injuries to key players anchored the ship. All-Star shortstop Corey Seager was limited to 123 games, while promising young players Josh Jung and Evan Carter appeared in less than 50 games each.

The loss of Carter was particularly disappointing after his remarkable debut and postseason in 2023. Carter, then 21 years old, posted a 1.058 OPS down the stretch and a .917 OPS in the playoffs to help lift the Rangers to their first-ever championship.

Expectations were sky-high for Carter leading into 2024, but a back injury limited his production and eventually shut him down for the year.

Ad – content continues below

“Yeah, it’s been miserable, to be completely honest. You go from the coolest thing that you can do in baseball to missing your entire rookie season. Then what little bit I did get to play, I felt terrible. It just sucks, you know?” Carter told Rangers reporter Kennedi Landry in September of last season.

Carter’s back injury resulted in his disappointing .188/.272/.361 slash line last season. Obviously, an injury to your back affects your swing and movement, but it can also take a toll on the mental side of your game.

Now healthy, Carter is looking to get back on track and prove 2024 was nothing more than an injury-lost season.

Pros and Cons From a Small Sample

The spark Carter brought to the Rangers lineup starting in September 2023 was nothing short of incredible. Plugging a 1.058 OPS into a lineup will do wonders no matter who it belongs to. Obviously, you can’t just extrapolate those numbers over 162 games. There will be some fluctuation in the production, but how much?

We are not talking about a pop-up prospect here. Carter, the Rangers’ 2020 second-round pick, topped out at no. 5 on Just Baseball’s top 100 list and was highly ranked by other outlets. His ranking was not just based on projections, but consistent production throughout the minor leagues.

A .284/.41/.451 slash with 12 HR, 22 SB, and a 133 wRC+ in Double-A in 2023 showed the traits and tools that made Carter such a highly-rated prospect. He proved he was deserving of his ranking once he reached the majors, and now he must solidify it with a full, successful season.

Ad – content continues below

In Carter’s first stint in the majors, he posted an 89-mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, and 46.2% hard-hit rate. Last season, those numbers dipped to 86 mph, 5.9%, and 32.4%, due in part to his injury.

Still, although we can find an excuse for his worse numbers in 2024, I don’t think 2023 should be viewed as the standard going forward.

While I think Carter will make enough quality contact to produce extra-base hits, the data might fall somewhere between his good and bad stints. Luckily, he’s going to walk enough to provide a baseline that the Rangers should be comfortable with. However, Carter’s swing-and-miss needs some work.

Through his first 68 major league games, Carter has a 28.3% strikeout rate. He did improve his whiff rate from 30% to 23% and saw his strikeout rate go from 32% to 26.5%. Considering his strikeout rates were closer to 20% throughout his time in the minors, and he rarely chases pitches outside of the zone, I expect his strikeout rate to continue to trend downward.

The last aspect of Carter’s game that could use improvement is his work on the basepaths. Carter is a 70-grade runner with a sprint speed that landed in the 97th percentile. Somehow, that has only translated to five MLB stolen bases. Running more would help him add value and make up for his still-developing power.

What makes Carter such an exciting player is the amount of ways he can provide production. He can grow into more power, but if he doesn’t, he has speed to fall back on. If he doesn’t hit as much as I think he can, he has his defense to level him out.

Ad – content continues below

Carter can play all three outfield spots at an above-average level. His speed and long stride help him cover enough field to fill center field. His arm is about average, which could eventually move him to left with Wyatt Langford sliding to center. Regardless of where he plays, I think you are getting plus defense.

2025 Expectations for Evan Carter

Trying to predict what type of season Carter will have, as he returns from injury and with only two very different small samples to analyze, is about as hard as it gets. Like most scenarios, the answer probably lies somewhere in between his two seasons.

According to Steamer, Carter is projected for a .240/.333/.400 slash, 13 HR, 11 SB, and a 111 wRC+. Considering how many plus hitters are in this Rangers lineup, I’d sign up right now for that production along with his plus defense. Furthermore, I do think there’s a good chance you see Carter top the stolen bases and average projections.

With the addition of Joc Pederson, a lefty bat, the Rangers can push Carter down the batting order and balance out righties Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Josh Jung. When a lefty is on the mound, the lineup will look different.

Carter has been protected against lefties, only logging 40 plate appearances and a .231 OPS against southpaws. In the minors, his OPS against lefties was .766, thanks in large part to his on-base percentage, not power output.

While platooning Carter dampens his value, it might not be the worst idea to, at the very least, get him off his feet versus tough lefties. Having Leody Taveras (S) and Ezequiel Duran (R) will make doing so much easier for manager Bruce Bochy.

Ad – content continues below

Final Thoughts

The Rangers’ lineup is far too strong to repeat what happened last season. Adding Pederson and Burger, while getting Jung and Carter back to 100%, makes this not only one of the deepest lineups but one of the deepest benches in the league.

Texas is not going to count on Carter to carry much of a load. Yet, even if his role is as a platoon player, he can impact the game in different ways that will allow him to bring value as his bat is developing. With less pressure and another offseason to get right and improve, I’m expecting Carter to bounce back from his injury and build upon the promise he has shown so far.

There’s a good chance, given the right playing time, Carter could be a 3+ fWAR player for the Rangers – but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.