Can Will Wagner Break Out for the Blue Jays?

Will Wagner wasn’t the centerpiece of the trade that sent Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros last summer. Rather, he was the tertiary piece in a deal headlined by top prospect Jake Bloss and recently graduated top prospect Joey Loperfido.

Yet, it was Wagner who made the biggest impact on the Toronto Blue Jays upon his arrival. After a 10-for-25 (198 wRC+) performance in seven games at Triple-A Buffalo, he earned his first call to the show. In 24 appearances, he hit .305 with six doubles and two home runs, good for a 125 wRC+.

The lefty batter made tons of contact, and I’m not just talking about weakly-hit grounders and lazy fly balls. His .360 xwOBA was noticeably better than his .342 wOBA. Half of the balls he put in play came off his bat at over 95 mph, while nearly 40% were in the launch angle sweet spot, according to Baseball Savant.

Just about the only thing Wagner didn’t do well was draw his walks, taking just four free passes in 86 trips to the plate (4.7% walk rate). However, plate discipline has always been one of his standout skills – he has a 13.9% walk rate in his minor league career – so it’s reasonable to think he’ll eventually walk more often as he adjusts to big league pitching.

By the time a left knee injury ended Wagner’s debut season in mid-September, he was playing second base on the regular and batting in the middle of Toronto’s lineup. Thankfully, he expects to be fully healthy for spring training.

While the everyday second base job now belongs to new acquisition Andrés Giménez, Wagner will look to prove he still deserves a spot in the Blue Jays’ starting nine.

Will Wagner Can Hit

While Wagner’s strong cup of coffee was a pleasant surprise, it’s not as if his success at the plate came out of nowhere.

Ahead of the 2023 season, Just Baseball’s Cristian Crespo identified Wagner as a prospect breakout candidate to watch. It was an aggressive prediction for a former 18th-round draft pick, but Crespo praised his “selective approach” and “innate ability to find the barrel with ease.”

Lo and behold, Wagner slashed .337/.420/.518 with a 147 wRC+ in 65 games between Double and Triple-A. He followed that up with a .315/.432/.444 slash line and a 130 wRC+ in 77 games at Triple-A in 2024.

Wagner might never be a slugger, a speedster, or a Gold Glove, but the man can put the bat on the ball.

Will Wagner: Breakout Candidate

The Steamer projection system at FanGraphs is high on Wagner, envisioning a .272/.351/.398 slash line and a 118 wRC+ for him in 2025. Especially encouraging is his projected 10.2% walk rate. That would have ranked in the 75th percentile last season.

The ZiPS projections are similarly optimistic about his bat and perhaps a little higher on his defense; the system thinks Wagner could be a 2.0-WAR player over 444 plate appearances in his first full MLB season.

The definition of a breakout is different for every different player. For some – say, former no. 1 prospect James Wood – a two-win season would hardly meet the criteria.

In Wagner’s case, however, he doesn’t need to become an All-Star or a Silver Slugger to have a breakout year. A breakout for Wagner would be establishing himself as an everyday player on Toronto’s active roster.

In other words, he only needs to slightly outperform his projections to break out in 2025.

Baseball America ranked him as the no. 412 prospect in the 2020 draft. FanGraphs ranked him as just the 56th-best prospect traded at the deadline last summer. MLB Pipeline currently has him at no. 18 in Toronto’s system.

For a player with such low expectations to carve out a role for himself in a big league lineup? That’s a breakout to me.

It also helps that Wagner could be doing this in the same year his legendary father – star closer Billy Wagner – is inducted into the Hall of Fame. If the younger Wagner succeeds, he will get far more media attention thanks to his famous DNA and the serendipitous timing.

On top of that, don’t forget he plays on the same team as another Hall of Fame son. Imagine the headlines if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Will Wagner are mashing at the Rogers Centre together.

Nepotism won’t increase Wagner’s WAR, but it will boost his star power — and becoming a well-known name is part of a breakout too.

Here at Just Baseball, we have spent the past couple of weeks highlighting breakout hitters to watch in 2025. Of all the players we’ve covered, Wagner might be the lowest-ranked prospect and the least likely to become an All-Star.

Still, I have a good feeling that Will Wagner will make a name for himself with the Blue Jays this season, and when all is said and done, I won’t regret this breakout pick.