What Kind of Haul Could Josh Naylor Net the D-Backs?

Stats and rankings were taken prior to play on July 22.

The Arizona Diamondbacks just swept the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend and are facing the Houston Astros in a tough series that has tremendous implications for MLB and its upcoming trade deadline.

Should Arizona, who sit one game below .500 and five games back from a wild-card spot, struggle against the Astros, it’s likely that general manager Mike Hazen would be forced to sell.

After all, he has four of the best players who could be moved, including perhaps the best starting pitcher and easily the best hitter in Zac Gallen and Eugenio Suárez.

Yet, if the Diamondbacks do well against the Astros, it would force Hazen to take a hard look at buying multiple relievers in a push to win this year, even if 2026 might be worse off without some critical pitching reinforcements due to the number of pitchers they could be without next season.

If the D-Backs do struggle and lose to the Astros, and perhaps even the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend, Hazen will likely be forced to sell star first baseman Josh Naylor, starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, Gallen, and Suárez. Or, at least sell two or three of them.

If they do move Naylor, he’ll be a hot commodity at this year’s deadline.

A Top Trade Deadline Commodity

Naylor could be replaced in-house with multiple different players, though none would come close to the kind of season he’s had so far. Naylor is batting .293 with an OPS of .814, the second-highest mark of his career. He’s got an OPS+ of 126 while having homered 11 times to go with 58 RBI.

Naylor is among the hits leaders in the NL with 100 and has excelled at commanding the strike zone. He has walked 37 times and struck out just 48 times, becoming an excellent contact hitter in the process.

His 12.4% strikeout rate is in the 93rd percentile of hitters this season. He’s even stolen 11 bags and has been caught stealing just twice, setting a career high in steals with over two months left to play in the season.

Thus, if Naylor is on the trade block, Hazen could ask for a good amount of talent in return for two months of a clubhouse leader, strong hitter, and the what could be the second-best left-handed bat at the deadline. Plus, he’s the best first baseman available.

However, since Naylor is just 28 years old, he is set for a large contract, likely over $100 million in free agency. That’s a prime set-up for Arizona to offer him the qualifying offer and have him deny it so that they can get a first-round pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.

As a result, whatever return they would get for Naylor would have to be worth more than that — likely far more — just due to them still wanting to have a reasonable team for the remainder of the season. Plus, it’s possible that Arizona would like to have a shot at re-signing him since they have limited first base prospects that could take the position long-term next year.

But if Arizona were to move Naylor, what could they potentially get in return?

What Could Teams Offer the D-Backs For Naylor?

There aren’t that many teams that need a first baseman, but there are a lot of teams that could use an impact bat like Naylor’s. For a bat like his, teams would figure out a way to make him fit in the lineup.

Some of the teams that are likely interested in Naylor figure to be the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, and Minnesota Twins.

With that being said, a few of those teams are unlikely due to their record, being in-division, or not having the prospects that Arizona wants which are controllable pitching. But of those teams mentioned, let’s break down what the top potential suitors have to offer in return for his services.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners once again are a strong trade partner fit for the Diamondbacks, just like they are for Suárez. Right-handed starting pitching prospect Ryan Sloan would likely be Arizona’s ask. Perhaps him paired with Chia-Shi Shen would be exactly what Hazen might want.

Despite both being in Single-A, they are highly-projectable right-handed starters who would enable Arizona to continue developing its starting pitching depth. Seattle doesn’t have the same kind of quality starting pitching prospects in Triple-A, unless you believe in Logan Evans, and Brandyn Garcia seems to be more of a reliever.

Sloan has a 50 future value grade and would certainly be the centerpiece. He has shown good command so far this year while racking up 64 strikeouts in 57.2 innings.

Shen has even better command with just six walks in 43 innings with 46 strikeouts. With multiple teams likely interested in Naylor, it could start a bidding war that ends up with this kind of package being needed to get the job done.

Boston Red Sox

Boston’s prospect system has taken a hit this year with multiple graduations happening, but it’s still got some solid players that likely could get Arizona to bite on a deal.

While Arizona would likely love to get their hands on Payton Tolle with the kind of season he’s having and as he’s Boston’s best pitching prospect, it’s unlikely the Red Sox would give him up for a rental.

Thus, Boston likely shifts the offer to No. 5 prospect Luis Perales, who has front-of-rotation or late-inning reliever upside but is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he can recover and get back to his 2024 form in 2026, he should be a fast-moving pitching prospect who could debut in 2027.

However, with that risk and a likely bidding war, Arizona would likely also want No. 12 prospect David Sandlin, who is in Double-A and is healthy.

Sandlin also comes with reliever risk and has pitched out of the bullpen four times so far against 12 starts, but if he can stick in the rotation, he’s shaping up to be a solid No. 3 or 4 starter if he can put it all together. He has improved his command, has multiple above-average pitches, and fits what Arizona wants, which is upper-level pitching.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have struggled to get left-handed power this year and to fill their first base spot due to Jake Burger’s struggles. Naylor would fix both of those issues. However, the Rangers’ system is not what it used to be, and their top arms in the minors have struggled or dealt with injuries.

However, there is one arm that Arizona would likely love to snag in a 1-for-1 trade or perhaps a 2-for-1 swap: Alejandro Rosario, their No. 3 prospect.

He’s recovering from elbow surgery that will keep him out until 2026, but he has ace-level potential if he’s able to recover well and return to form. Of course, those are two big ifs whenever there’s elbow surgery involved.

Rosario’s fastball previously could hit 100 mph and stay in the mid-90s, and he offered two other plus-pitches to set himself up to turn into a mid-rotation pitcher. After adjustments by the Rangers, he started to walk far fewer batters and pitch deeper into games.

This would be an ideal return for Arizona, as they could get a pitcher that they normally couldn’t get as easily if he wasn’t injured.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee doesn’t have the same kind of farm system as some of the other teams, but they still have quality guys with plenty of pitchers near MLB-level.

While most of their top 10 prospects are position players, they have two starters who have already made their MLB debut that would certainly intrigue the D-Backs.

Those would be No. 11 prospect Robert Gasser and hurler Logan Henderson. This would still leave Milwaukee with over eight MLB-quality starting pitchers as depth.

Gasser is recovering from Tommy John surgery and arguably would be enough on his own, but if a bidding war ensues as it likely would in a seller’s market, Henderson could be pushed into the deal, or perhaps a top relief prospect in Craig Yoho.

Gasser has all the makings of being a quality No. 4 starter, and Henderson did well in his cameo this year thus far. This kind of move would allow Arizona to then trade Gallen without needing a starter in return.

Henderson has a superb changeup that allows him to play off all his other pitches. Both of these arms are highly likely to stay in a rotation too and be ready right away or early next season, which gives Arizona the starting depth they so crave.

Of course, there could be a team that comes out of left field, or Hazen could like plenty of other prospects. Or none of these teams present an offer deemed worthy to move Naylor. Only time will tell, but Josh Naylor is set up to be a star potentially available come July 31.