Will the Houston Astros Add to Their Starting Rotation?

The Houston Astros have made a lot of moves this offseason, but their starting rotation is an area of need that may not be fully addressed.

Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Ronel Blanco #56 of the Houston Astros pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park on April 01, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)

What do Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers, and Jose Urquidy have in common? They were all on the IL last year – at the same time. 

This slough of injuries proved to be a main factor in the Astros falling below that 90-win threshold for the first time since 2017, and meant they had to rely on a lot of untested and unproven arms.

Ronel Blanco emerged as a success story out of his new opportunity as a starter, but a 4.15 FIP signals regression heading into his age-31 season. Spencer Arrighetti was hit or miss, and though he got better as he got more MLB seasoning, he was more miss than hit.

Justin Verlander, a San Francisco Giant now, proved unreliable, and the former ace of the Houston staff was left off the Astros’ Wild Card roster against the Tigers.

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And Blanco, Arrighetti, and budding ace Hunter Brown all pitched a career-high in innings last year. Houston could benefit from adding another depth arm on top of Hayden Wesneski, part of the return for Kyle Tucker trade who’s currently slotted in as the five starter, per Fangraphs RosterResource

Last year’s injuries prove a sentiment Dana Brown shares often: “You can never have enough pitching.” Whether Brown is motivated to act on that notion in the trade or free agent market is another question, but it’s possible the team’s rotation right now will remain through Opening Day.

Will they acquire another starter?

The Astros likely aren’t looking to take on a substantial amount of salary. They’re probably more looking to get rid of as much as possible, considering they’re just $13 million away from reaching the luxury tax threshold.

With the starting pitcher market in free agency exorbitantly high, that takes them out of almost every remaining free agent who’d be of high enough caliber to start a playoff game.

Even with the loss of Verlander, the Astros would run out a respectable, not formidable, top three of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and a combo of Blanco or Arrighetti.

Still, they could look to explore free agency if the right value emerges or the trade market if they’re able to unload salary. 

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Potential Trade Target

Jordan Montgomery

With the Diamondbacks’ bolstered rotation depth following the signing of Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery may be the odd man out in a stacked Arizona staff.

Plus, D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick basically exiled him from the team already, saying in October how horrible of a decision it was to sign him. Montgomery is owed $22.5 million in 2025 before becoming a free agent in 2026 and might be a fit with the Astros if the Diamondbacks would take on Ryan Pressly’s $14 million salary in return. 

The narrative around Pressly this offseason has been that he’s an unreliable option in the bullpen, and while he may not be shut down closer material, he’d provide more valuable innings in the bullpen than Montgomery did after he was relegated to relief duties last year.

Also in the market for a left-handed hitting outfielder, the Astros might be interested in a few Arizona outfielders who’ve already drawn trade interest this offseason in Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy

The fit for both teams is there, but the Astros have already made a rather ambitious move this offseason in moving Kyle Tucker and the D-Backs by signing Burnes and trading for Josh Naylor. Another big headliner deal might not fit the profiles of either front office.

Lower-tier Free Agents

There are options on the free agent market if the Astros want to go a depth, inning-eater route. Cal Quantrill would certainly be cheap, and he’s only a few years removed from a 3.38 ERA over 186.1 innings. Perhaps they could reunite with and take a flyer on old friend Wade Miley, who’s a former All-Star recovering from Tommy John and targeting a late April/early May return. 

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Lance Lynn, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, and Mike Clevinger are also some names that could be serviceable big-league arms within Houston’s price range.

If the Astros were able to move even $10 million of Pressly’s salary, they could get in the mix for a Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta, but it doesn’t seem like the Astros will be in the market to make that splash at this stage in the offseason.

Are They Done Adding?

Ultimately the more you look at the Astros rotation and their options to address it, the more you understand that they are probably going to roll with the group that they have and hope for the best.

If the Astros are in a position to win the AL West and go on another playoff run, there is every chance they will be right back in the trade market by the deadline like they were last year when they dealt a big package to Toronto for Yusei Kikuchi.

Then again, if their rotation truly falters, they could be on the other end of that type of deadline trade, with ace Framber Valdez being on the block in his final year before he hits free agency.

The Astros are operating in what appears to be a shorter window than we have seen from them across the past decade of contention.

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Can they remake themselves and remain on top? We will soon find out.