Top Notes From the Texas Rangers ZiPS Projections for 2025

Entering the 2025 season, the Texas Rangers are one of the most intriguing teams in the league. There are more “what if” statements tied to this team than any other. Fresh off the organization’s first World Series title in 2023, the team faltered mightily in 2024.

The offense that many thought would dominate again, simply did not. It was a combination of injuries and underperformance that led to the team’s demise in 2024. But that was last year. With a new season on the horizon, what can baseball fans expect to see out of the 2025 addition of the Rangers? Look no further than ZiPS, one of the top projection systems in the game.

If you have heard of ZiPS but aren’t sure what it is, don’t fret, I’ve got you covered. It is a projection system that was created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS is not something that was crafted overnight, but instead has been molded into its current form over the past two decades. Below is a summary from Major League Baseball on how it works:

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

Each offseason Szymborski writes an article on each team that summarizes ZiPS projections. He first looked at the Texas Rangers back in November before Thanksgiving. Because Chris Young was busy during the offseason, we will be using the updated ZiPS Rangers leaderboard for our analysis. It is up to date, and contains all of the current roster.

You can check out the rest of our ZiPS projection pieces here.

Rangers ZiPS: Position Players

• Corey Seager will continue to be his dominant self – It should come as no surprise, but Seager is projected to be the best player for the Rangers again in 2025. ZiPS has him posting 5.3 fWAR this season. Last year he had 4.5fWAR. This year’s projected number would be his second highest career fWAR season only behind his 6.3fWAR effort in 2023 that landed him 2nd in the AL MVP race.

• No sophomore slump for Wyatt Langford – According to Rangers beat reporter Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, when Langford was asked how to avoid a sophomore slump his response was perfect. “I have no idea. I guess you just play good, I don’t know,” replied Langford. ZiPS believes that the young outfielder will do just that. They have him posting 4.2 fWAR (good for third highest on the team behind only Seager and Semien), slashing .270/.342/.475, and having a massive 131 wRC+ in a breakout campaign.

• ZiPS thinks Josh Jung‘s injury issues continue – Over his first three seasons in the big leagues, Jung has managed to play in only 194 regular season games. After breaking his arm when he was hit by a pitch in game four of the season last year, he would go on to only play in 46 games. ZiPS doesn’t see any reason to change the narrative at this point. Jung is projected to play in only 85 games in 2025 and have a 104 wRC+.

• The bounce-back boys – Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter all need a bounce-back season, and that is exactly what ZiPS predicts for all four Rangers. Garcia is seen to flex his muscles once again and tie Seager with 28 home runs (good for second on the team – spoiler alert, the top guy is new). He is also predicted to post a 110 wRC+. ZiPS predicts that Carter will breakout this year for a 109 wRC+ in 104 games played. ZiPS has Heim as going from a -0.1 fWAR and 70 wRC+ to 2.4 fWAR and an 89 wRC+. And despite rumors of him losing his centerfield job or being traded, ZiPS has Taveras having his best season yet by posting a 2.9 fWAR and 102 wRC+.

• Jake Burger feasts – Burger is bound to be a fan favorite in Texas if he can live up to the lofty predictions that ZiPS has for him in 2025. They see the slugger as the team leader in both home runs with 30 and RBI with 91. Additionally, ZiPS has the first baseman accumulating 2.4 fWAR in 2025 which would be his highest total of his career. In 2023 he had an fWAR of 2.2.

• ZiPS likes Josh Smith to continue solid play – Super utility guy, Josh Smith had a breakout season in 2024. Forced into action early and often, Smith played in 149 games, had a 111 wRC+, and posted a 2.8 fWAR. This year ZiPS thinks that he is going to have a repeat performance. They have him playing in 139 games, having a 109 wRC+, and posting a 2.9 fWAR.

Rangers ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

• Pessimistic injury view of Jacob deGrom – In his first two seasons with the Rangers, deGrom has a total of 41 innings pitched. While ZiPS does think that he will exceed that total in 2025, it isn’t by much. They have the dominant ace throwing 51.2 innings over 12 starts. And even though ZiPS doesn’t see deGrom pitching often, they do see him continuing to be great when he does. They have him with a 3.13 ERA and a robust 12.01 K/9.

• Slight regression for Nathan Eovaldi – The resigning of Eovaldi in the offseason was a top priority for the Rangers front office. They got the deal done and ZiPS predicts that he will give the team 25 starts this year and log 143.7 innings. In each of the last five seasons, Eovaldi has had a sub-four ERA. Despite that fact, ZiPS sees the hurler posting a slightly higher ERA in 2025 of 4.20.

• Kumar Rocker to have a solid rookie campaign – After coming back from Tommy John surgery and blasting his way through the minor leagues last season, there is much anticipation to Rocker’s rookie season. ZiPS is cautious about his workload seeing it come in at 16 starts and 61.3 innings pitched. But they do have Rocker posting a sub-four ERA of 3.82, which indicates the system’s fondness of the powerful righty.

Relief Pitchers

• Is Chris Martin the closer? – On a team that has no clear-cut closer, Martin appears to be the favorite among many experts. ZiPS agrees and has him recording a team high 20 saves this season while maintaining a 3.40 ERA. That isn’t too shabby for a 38-year-old pitcher that only has 14 MLB saves throughout his career.

• ZiPS not a fan of the Rangers bullpen – In his article about the Rangers ZiPS projections that was referenced earlier, Szymborski wasn’t fond of the team’s bullpen at all. Flash forward to now and the organization made numerous offseason signings and even a trade that landed a large number of under the radar type veteran relievers. But the reality is that there are no true back of the ‘pen kind of guys and ZiPS is still a bit uncomfortable with the situation. With all of the unknown factors they predict that there will only be three relief pitchers with a sub-four ERA this season. Those that make that cut are Robert Garcia, Martin, and 2023 World Series star Josh Sborz.

• Will Robert Garcia be as good with his new team? – Much like Martin, Garcia has limited back end of the bullpen experience. He has pitched in leverage, but has zero saves to his credit. ZiPS sees that changing this year, and pegs the new Ranger as collecting eight saves and having a 3.52 ERA.

Rangers ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Many people believe that the Rangers have a chance to compete for the AL West in 2025 and get back to the playoffs. But it will surely not be easy, and there will be a dog fight amongst the top contenders.

If the Rangers are indeed going to return to the postseason, they will have to have many bounce-back performances from some of their key players and also remain healthy. ZiPS doesn’t disagree. They see this Rangers team as many others do, as one that has all the makings of a great team, but with many “ifs” that need to go their way.

Predictions are entertaining, but it is now March and the games start this month. We will see soon how this Rangers team’s fortunes are going to play out in 2025.