Which Version of Jonah Heim Will the Rangers Get In 2025?

Last season was a rough one for the Texas Rangers. It was also a dreadful year for Rangers catcher Jonah Heim. The thing is, it wasn’t supposed to be that way for either party.

The Rangers headed into the 2024 season as the defending World Series champions. Heim came into the year ranked by Just Baseball as the seventh-best catcher in MLB. Unfortunately, his production, or lack thereof, didn’t live up to the high billing.

Was Heim’s preseason ranking too aggressive? Not when you look at his numbers from the team’s championship season. Not only was he the main catcher for the team – and he did a magnificent job defensively handling the pitching staff – but he was also a mainstay at the plate for the potent Rangers offense.

From Gold Glove to Struggling

Defensively, Heim ranked seventh in MLB with a FanGraphs framing value of 9.3 in 2023. The previous year, 2022, he ranked second with a score of 9.1.

Yet, if you’re looking at the 2024 season, you won’t even find Heim on the first page of the rankings for framing score. You have to look closer to the bottom of the rankings than the top to find him and his -1.2 framing value. How the mighty had fallen.

There is also much more to catching than simply framing pitches. From 2021-2023, Heim had defensive run values of 6, 11, and 12, respectively (per Baseball Savant). His +12 defensive run value in 2023 slotted him into a tie for ninth place among all defenders at any position. Heim grabbed his first Gold Glove that season as well.

In 2024, Heim’s defensive run value was -5. How did one of the greatest defensive catchers over a two-year period turn into one of the worst?

Heim’s Offensive Struggles

The big switch-hitter didn’t make up for his poor defense in 2024 with superior offense. He was equally bad in both areas.

Heim’s offensive numbers were down across the board in 2024 except in one key category. He actually had a better strikeout rate (18.3%) than he had in the past few seasons. So strikeouts weren’t the culprit – unless he just wasn’t being aggressive enough.

As you can see in the chart above, his walk rate was down significantly from both 2022 and 2023. Pair that with a decline in barrel rate (8.0% ’23 and 5.9% ’24) and hard-hit rate (38.5% ’23 and 36.4% ’24), per Baseball Savant, and the picture starts to become a bit clearer.

Heim didn’t draw his walks in 2024 and wasn’t hitting with enough power to produce the slug that he had in the previous two seasons.

At times, he seemed very reactionary at the plate instead of being the baseball punisher that he was in 2023. Heim feasted on the fastball in 2023, with an average of .266 and a slugging percentage of .494. But in 2024, his numbers against heat plummetted to a .229 average and .351 slugging.

For Heim to bounce back strong in 2025, he will need to get his walks back up and pound the fastball. He is at his best when he’s smashing the ball both out of the yard and off the fence for standup doubles.

Other Causes for Heim’s 2024 Regression?

There are several potential explanations. First off, the guy was probably worn out. After riding the high and the intensity of the playoff race that ended up being another month of pressure-packed games, there was not nearly as much time as usual for him to get back on track in the offseason.

The hangover of the title run was real, and perhaps nobody felt it as much as the catcher for the Rangers.

In addition to the on-field stuff, Heim was dealing with the loss of his mother-in-law to ALS and raising a growing young family. As much as we try to make players into robots with expected outcomes, the reality is they are people just like you and me. They have great times in their lives and they have hard seasons.

Pushing through is what they do, but it can have an impact on their performance much more than we give credit.

Think about your last work assignment. Were you in a good place mentally when you did it? If so, it was probably solid work. If not, well, you get the point.

Reasons for Hope

Every athlete wants to be in the game and on the field. Splitting time isn’t something that a pro ballplayer will want, but it can be the best thing for both the player and the team.

Enter Kyle Higashioka. With the offseason signing of Higashioka, reinforcements are on the way.

This addition should allow Bruce Bochy to get the best out of Heim and be able to keep both of his catchers fresh. In the grueling 162-game regular season, and hopefully a playoff appearance, this could be a key factor in Heim bouncing back in 2025.

I am not sure that Heim will be able to match some of his top numbers from 2023 in more of a platoon-type arrangement than before, but the output per game should be light years better than his 2024 production.

If we take a look at the FanGraphs DC projection numbers, they seem to tell a similar story. They have Heim playing in 84 games and taking 333 plate appearances, which would indicate a very evenly split catching platoon in Arlington.

Heim’s projected slash line is .232/.289/.385, with 13 doubles, 10 home runs, 35 runs, 45 RBI, a 90 wRC+, and a 1.7 fWAR. The bulk of that fWAR number comes from a projected resurgence on the defensive side of the equation.

Heim’s fWAR totals from 2022-24 have been 2.7, 4.0, and -0.1, respectively. If the Rangers can get a combined catcher fWAR in the 3.0 to 4.0 range for 2025, that will set them up for some positive action from behind the dish.

2025 Should Be Positive for Heim

It is doubtful that Heim will be able to duplicate his 2023 season, but it is also even more doubtful that he will duplicate his 2024. Perhaps the best and worst years of his career are already in the past, and he can now get on with being a steady catcher.

A bounce-back in 2025 seems inevitable. Heim is too strong of a catcher not to do well.

The pressure of being the only real catcher on the team has been eliminated, and he will be able to play with more energy and authority. The H and H boys, Heim and Higashioka, should be a fun tandem in 2025.