Top Notes From the Mariners ZiPS Projections for 2025

Despite four straight seasons of 85 or more wins, Seattle Mariners fans are left with a bad taste in their mouth. A result of greed, not from the fans, but from ownership.

Seattle has one of the elite rotations in all of baseball, consisting of high-end talent one through five. Their issue? A lineup that cannot produce enough runs.

Instead of addressing an obvious need, the front office decided to announce some variation of a self-imposed “$15 million salary cap,” killing fan excitement before the offseason revved up.

I understand why fans would be upset. A team that’s just a piece or two away gets the brakes pumped instead of hitting the gas. After years and years of waiting, a city finally has a team they want to back, but that team is not willing to roll the dice and make a significant move.

I get it. Now that we have established this team is what it is, maybe a few rebound seasons can help get them over the hump. Improvement from within is the most likely path to the Mariners reaching new highs in 2025. Luckily, we have projection models to help us understand how reasonable it is to believe in this team, as constructed.

I’m sure you have heard of ZiPS. It’s a model developed over the past 20 years by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski that takes different factors into account and uses them to help predict the type of season a player might have. These factors include past performance and aging trends, along with other complexities.

I suggest reading Szymborski’s full explanation of the system to gain a better grasp of what these numbers truly mean.

So, let’s dive into the Mariners’ projections and see if this team can increase their win total with mostly internal improvements.

Mariners ZiPS: Position Players

As I stated before, but need to emphasize, the lineup is by far the biggest weakness of the Mariners. After relying so heavily on Cal Raleigh and the fever dream that was Victor Robles, Seattle needs a few established veterans to rebound in order to push them over the top. Luckily, ZiPS is projecting better seasons from key players.

• Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford can bounce back – By no means was Julio Rodríguez a bad player in 2024, but we can all agree his numbers were underwhelming compared to his superstar talent. After back-to-back 5.8 fWAR seasons, Rodríguez posted a 3.8 fWAR in 2024 with a significant dip in power. ZiPS sees him returning to 5.8 fWAR, 27 home runs, and 27 stolen bases. An increase in power and getting back on his Hall of Fame pace would help erase shortcomings from other positions.
  
  Crawford went from his best offensive season in 2023 to arguably his worst in 2024. He also dealt with injury for the first time in years. Now healthy, he is primed to return to form. ZiPS is projecting a 22-point jump in his wRC+ and an even 3.0 fWAR season, which would be massive considering the depth options behind him.
  

• Infield could be an issue – Seattle passed on big-name free agents and pivoted to bringing back Jorge Polanco, despite his disappointing 2024 season. While ZiPS projects a better 2025 (1.5 fWAR), there are plenty of reasons to have reservations. The team’s other free agent addition was 37-year-old Donovan Solano, who can still hit, but is aging and struggles defensively.
  
  Luke Raley is projected for a step back in offensive production, while Dylan Moore, who I prefer as a utility piece, will likely have to settle in as a starter. Moore’s production is not the issue, but keeping him in one spot will limit the Mariners in a way they have not been limited in recent years. The bench, and minor league depth, is unproven or underwhelming, making the margin for error small.

• Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss could be answers – The Mariners are more or less bringing back the same lineup from last season and could do with a younger player breaking through. Ryan Bliss, who played 33 games last season with a 101 wRC+, could earn an infield spot. ZiPS has him projected for a 90 wRC+, but 31 stolen bases and plus defense driving a 2.1 fWAR. If he can fill second, Moore would slot back into his super-utility role.
  
  Canzone is a bit older, 27, with less than a full season of games under his belt. Despite posting a -0.4 career fWAR, his projection of 15 home runs, a 107 wRC+, and 1.1 fWAR would be welcomed to the lineup. Whether it be as a fourth outfielder or insurance for a possible step back from Robles, Canzone adding value would give the Mariners some depth they desperately need.

• The Mitches disappoint – Mitch Haniger has trended downward for the better part of three straight seasons. Since hitting 39 home runs in 2021, he’s yet to break the 15 home run mark. You might see a slight improvement, but don’t expect to see the Haniger fans once grew to love. ZiPS isn’t projecting his power to come back (13 HR), making his slight projected improvement in batting average still result in only a 98 wRC+
  
  Another aging Mitch, this time Garver, is on a similar trajectory. Although 2024 was his healthiest season (114 G), the power numbers took a dip that is not projected to rebound. A poor defender, Garver’s bat will have to rebound in a big way in order to surpass his projected 0.2 fWAR.
  

• The biggest offseason need was not filled – Mariners fans’ frustration has lasted since the day their season ended. Looking through their offensive projections shows a clear need for another impactful bat, and Seattle whiffed in that department. Ha-Seong Kim would have been an excellent fit, Pete Alonso would have been a perfect splash, and many others would have at least been an upgrade.
  
  I will say, only one player in the starting lineup has a projected wRC+ under 100, but that feels generous to me. As the roster is currently constructed, there will be a substantial reliance on players having a better season than they did in 2024, with only one player (Robles) taking a sizeable step back. That’s a bit too optimistic to me.

Mariners ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Seattle’s rotation is the clear strength of the team and one of the best collections of arms in all of baseball. Elite enough to be appointment television each night, no matter which coast you live on.

The bullpen might not have a ton of names that casual fans recognize, but the talent is there. Matt Brash, who’s coming off of Tommy John surgery, can take this bullpen from good to great if he comes back strong from injury.

• The rotation remains strong but lacks depth – The Mariners will return the same rotation from last year, which is great news. Each member is projected to finish with an ERA under 4.00, a feat they also achieved last season. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are projected to lead the way with 3.5 fWAR each, but watch out for Bryan Woo. He’s coming off a fantastic season where he pitched to the tune of a 2.89 ERA and 3.40 FIP, and his projection sits at only 124 innings. If he can get closer to 150-160 innings, and keep up the same pace, we could see a big jump.
  
  Although the top five options are stellar, depth remains a question. Emerson Hancock and Blas Castano are likely the first in line, but each has their own concerns and a limited ceiling. Logan Evans has been a quick riser within the organization and posted a 3.20 ERA across 107 innings in Double-A last season. We’ll see where he stands come spring, but that’s a name to keep an eye on either way.
  

• Gregory Santos’ instant impact – Santos was acquired from the White Sox after a breakout season in 2023 and missed the majority of last season due to injury. A hard, 98 mph sinker paired with a slider produces not only well-above-average whiff rates, but elite ground ball rates. Batters struggle to square up Santos’ offerings, not only making him effective, but elite at limiting damage.
  
  ZiPS sees his talent and is projecting a 2.56 ERA, 2.46 FIP, and 10.07 K/9. That would be a massive season coming back from injury that could take this bullpen to a new level. An elite rotation that can then hand the ball to Gregory Santos, Matt Brash, and Andrés Muñoz can essentially shorten games.
  

• Will Bryce Miller take a slight step back? – Not to be too nitpicky, but Miller’s slight projected step back is intriguing to me. After pitching 180.1 innings to a 2.94 ERA and 3.58 FIP, ZiPS has Miller at a 3.63 ERA and 3.84 FIP in roughly 158 innings for 2025. Miller has been in some regression discussions due to his advanced metrics showing reason for concern.
  
  My counter, and what makes Miller so intriguing, is how his pitch mix might change. Miller showed less dependency on his four-seam fastball last season, dropping the usage by roughly 15% and turning to his sinker and added splitter more often. An intentional development that could throw a wrench into a projection system that does not factor in this level of change.

• Collin Snider comes back down to earth – The season Collin Snider gave the Mariners last year was incredible. A 1.94 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 10.15 K/9 line was drastically better than what we have seen from Snider in the past. It was due in part to a pitch mix change, as he decreased his sinker in favor of a four-seam/sweeper heavy offering.
  
  While the strikeout numbers jumped, a large percentage of contact he gave up was in the air, leaving little room for error. ZiPS has Snider falling back to a 4.13 ERA and 4.15 FIP, with his K/9 dropping to 8.41. Like Miller, a massive change in pitch mix could affect these projections, however the advanced data backs this up.
  

Mariners ZiPS: Final Thoughts

I understand why Mariners fans are not as enthusiastic heading into the season. We are about to start spring training, and an alarming number of Opening Day tickets are still available, which goes to show how the inaction from the front office has affected the fanbase.

Let’s not forget the Mariners are still right around that 85 projected win number. They are still tracking toward a very good season, a break or two away from a great year. We are not looking at a rebuild or a team on the cusp of being dismantled à la Toronto.

Working through these projections highlighted how many players did not reach their baseline expectation in 2024 and how few truly exceeded. I’m sure that is a big reason the front office was willing to essentially run back the same team and see if positive regression handles their issues. I know, I know, as a fan that is the last thing you want to hear.

An elite rotation, stable lineup, All-Star catcher, and superstar center fielder can pull fans out of the slumps they might be feeling today.