What Can We Learn From the Phillies’ ZiPS Projections for 2025?

When I wrote about the Philadelphia Phillies and their ZiPS projections last year, these were my major takeaways: The 2024 Phillies are going to look a lot like the 2023 Phillies.

Well, um… ditto.

By and large, the Phillies are running it back once again, with almost all the key players from the 2024 squad returning for another year. Considering this team had the second-best record and the fourth-best run differential in MLB last season, it’s hard to criticize that strategy.

Indeed, the ZiPS projections suggest the Phillies should be a very similar team in 2025. And that’s a good thing.

ZiPS is a projection system created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, who has spent the past 20-plus years developing and refining the design. Here’s a quick summary of how it works, courtesy of MLB.com:

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

Throughout the offseason, Szymborski releases the ZiPS projections for every team, along with a detailed write-up. Back in November, he published the initial projections for the Phillies. All things considered, those projections paint a pretty rosy picture of a team that should compete to defend its division crown.

Phillies ZiPS: Position Players

The Phillies’ offense is strong but top-heavy. After Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, there aren’t any bats on this team that strike fear into opposing pitchers. Thankfully, ZiPS projects all three to remain at the top of their game in 2025.

Every other hitter in Philadelphia’s projected starting lineup should be at least an average-ish bat, from veterans Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Max Kepler to younger players like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh. However, the Phillies will need some of them to outperform their 50th percentile projections if they’re going to have a top-five offense in baseball again.

• ZiPS is still high on Trea Turner – Last year, I noted that ZiPS envisioned Trea Turner as the most valuable player on the team. Bryce Harper ended up outproducing Turner in 2024, but once again, ZiPS has Turner coming out on top in 2025. His 5.0 fWAR projection (using the playing time estimates from FanGraphs Depth Charts) ranks eighth in the National League. Harper’s 4.7 fWAR projection ranks 12th.
• Steamer or ZiPS for J.T. Realmuto? – After a long run as the best catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto has been much closer to league average over the past two years. The Steamer projection system envisions more of the same from Realmuto in 2025, giving him a 2.0 fWAR projection in 466 PA. ZiPS, on the other hand, projects a three-win season for the veteran backstop; only five NL catchers have a higher projected fWAR, per ZiPS. The Phillies will hope the latter projection proves to be more accurate.
• Optimism for Bryson Stott – Despite his down year in 2024, Bryson Stott’s ZiPS projections are actually better right now than they were at this time last year. That’s great news for Phillies fans, who were surely frustrated by the young second baseman’s 88 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR this past year. ZiPS thinks he can be a three-win player in his age-27 season. That would be terrific production from the bottom of Philadelphia’s lineup.
• ZiPS is buying stock in Alec Bohm – In 2024, Alec Bohm produced 3.5 fWAR in 143 contests. That marked a huge improvement over his first four seasons, in which he averaged 1.3 fWAR per 143 games. You might have thought his ZiPS projection would be right in the middle of those two numbers. On the contrary, ZiPS has him putting up 3.1 fWAR this year in a similar number of games. The system isn’t convinced his defensive improvements last year were real, but it’s forecasting a similar season with the stick.
• Max Kepler is more of a role player – The Phillies signed Max Kepler to be their everyday left fielder in the hopes that he could look more like the three-win player he was in 2023 (or even the four-win player he was in 2019) rather than the one-win guy he was in 2024. Unfortunately, ZiPS sees him as an average player across the board. Considering his injury history and his track record of underperformance against same-handed pitching, Kepler looks like more of a role player than an impact starter.
• ZiPS loves Edmundo Sosa – As I wrote last summer, Edmundo Sosa has quietly been one of the best part-time players in MLB over the last four seasons. ZiPS is confident he can keep that up in 2025, projecting 1.4 fWAR from Sosa in 292 PA. The Phillies should be very pleased to get that kind of production from their utility infielder. After all, that’s more value than some teams will get from their starting shortstop.

Phillies ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

According to FanGraphs WAR, the Phillies had the second-best starting rotation in the National League last season, trailing only the Braves. It’s great, then, that all of the team’s top four starters are set to return in 2025.

New addition Jesús Luzardo should be a nice upgrade for the back of the rotation, while top prospect Andrew Painter offers high upside and free agent signing Joe Ross offers depth.

• Zack Wheeler is awesome – Okay, so I don’t have any real analysis to offer here. I just really like Zack Wheeler, and so does ZiPS. It has him finishing third among all pitchers in fWAR, while ZiPS DC (which uses manual playing time estimates) has him finishing second. Both projections have him ahead of popular NL Cy Young picks like Corbin Burnes, Paul Skenes, and Chris Sale. Is this the year Wheeler finally takes the top pitching prize?
• ZiPS isn’t sold on Jesús Luzardo – I have to admit, I was a little surprised by Luzardo’s mediocre ZiPS projections: a 4.36 ERA, a 4.15 FIP, and less than 2.0 fWAR. I know he’s coming off a poor season (5.00 ERA in 12 GS) and an injury, but this guy had a 3.48 ERA and 6.1 fWAR in 50 starts from 2022-23. And he’s only 27 years old! That said, Luzardo only has to be the fifth starter for this team, and no one is complaining about a fifth starter with a 4.36 ERA. Anything else he can provide is gravy.
• The Phillies have a terrific rotation – When a pitcher like Luzardo is your number five, your rotation is in a pretty good spot. Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez all have projected ERAs under 4.00, while Joe Ross’s 4.76 ERA/4.53 FIP projection makes him a perfectly cromulent swingman. ZiPS isn’t optimistic about a bounceback from Taijuan Walker, but at this point, the Phillies don’t really need anything from him anymore.
• Andrew Painter will have to prove himself – Don’t pay too much attention to Andrew Painter’s mediocre projections (4.71 ERA). I’m not saying ZiPS is wrong about him, but the error bars are massive. We’re talking about a guy with only 26 professional starts who hasn’t pitched since 2022. His ceiling is much, much higher than that of a 4.71 ERA arm, but it’s anyone’s guess how close he’ll come to reaching that ceiling in 2025.

Relief Pitchers

The back of Philadelphia’s bullpen was arguably just as strong as the top of their rotation in 2024. However, they’ll go into 2025 without key players Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez. That means they’ll be counting on continued dominance from Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, a return to form for José Alvarado, and a healthy season from new addition Jordan Romano.

• Orion Kerkering is the real deal – In 2024, the Phillies had a pair of All-Stars in their bullpen: Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm. Could Orion Kerkering earn an All-Star berth in 2025? If ZiPS is any indication, the answer is yes. In fact, his 1.2 fWAR projection is the best among all relievers in the National League. To be fair, he drops down to eighth if you look at ZiPS DC, which uses manual playing time and bullpen role estimates. Still, that’s pretty exciting stuff for a not-yet-24-year-old pitcher who was still at Low-A as recently as May 2023.
• José Alvarado can bounce back – After establishing himself as one of the nastiest lefty relievers in the sport in 2022 and ’23, Alvarado took a step back in 2024. Thankfully, his ZiPS projections are still pretty promising. His 3.17 projected FIP ranks 12th among NL relievers and fourth among left-handed NL relievers.
• Jordan Romano is a wild card – ZiPS has great things to say about Kerkering, Strahm, Alvarado, and, somewhat surprisingly, Tanner Banks, too. The big question mark – and the pitcher who could make the difference between the Phillies having a good bullpen and a great bullpen – is Jordan Romano. From 2020-23, Romano pitched to a 2.29 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 199 games. His matching 3.77 ERA and FIP projections aren’t bad, but he needs to look more like his old self if he’s going to help replace Hoffman and Estévez at the back of Philadelphia’s ‘pen.

Phillies ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Ultimately, the ZiPS projections don’t foresee a lot of surprises for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025. And like I said, that’s a pretty good sign.

While fans were disappointed after the team’s early postseason exit last fall, it’s important to remember that the Phillies won 95 games – and the NL East! – in 2024. Almost every key player from last year’s roster is still around, and the projections don’t envision a major decline for any of them.

If just a few of the question marks (Luzardo, Painter, Romano, etc.) can outperform their projections, this Phillies team should be one of the premier clubs in the National League once again.