Top Notes From the Washington Nationals ZiPS Projections for 2025

Entering the year 2025, the Washington Nationals may only be coming off of a 71-win showing in 2024, but the club appears to be nearing the end of a multi-year rebuild. Sure, 71 wins doesn’t exactly scream “contender”, but don’t sleep on this Nationals squad.

Armed with some of the very best young prospects in the game in James Wood and Dylan Crews, the Nats are going to be more dangerous than you’d think in the upcoming season.

Don’t sleep on some of the club’s moves they made to round out their roster for the approaching season. A trade for Nathaniel Lowe from the Texas Rangers got them their power-hitting first baseman while super-utility extraordinaire Amed Rosario was signed to fill out the club’s bench.

On the pitching side of things, Michael Soroka was brought aboard to fill a spot in the Nationals’ rotation while Jorge Lopez and Shinnosuke Ogasawara were added to the bullpen. Evan Reifert, claimed from the Rays in the Rule 5 Draft, is another intriguing arm that’s joining the mix.

Since we don’t yet have in-game action to go off of, it’s prime time for projection season. One of the very best in the business is ZiPS, created by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski. The projection system is more than two decades old at this point and it remains one of the best preseason tools around.

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.“

sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) via MLB.com

A few months ago, Szymborski released the ZiPS projections for the 2025 Nationals. Let’s dive in and pick out the most noteworthy nuggets.

Nationals ZiPS: Position Players

• ZiPS doesn’t necessarily buy Dylan Crews‘ bat (yet) – Through a brief but highly successful stint in the minor leagues, Crews did nothing but hit. He put up a cumulative 135 wRC+ in the minors in 2023 before coming in at 115 last season. His first 31-game stint in the big leagues saw him contribute much more value defensively than offensively, but the bat is absolutely going to come around. He currently projects to put up a 98 wRC+ with the vast majority of his 2.7 fWAR coming from his glove.

• James Wood‘s supremacy is upon us – Wood, a 6-foot-7 behemoth of a human being, looked great during his first 79-game showing in the major leagues. ZiPS has him completely bypassing a sophomore slump in year two, leading the team with 20 home runs and 76 RBI with a .264 average, .351 OBP and 125 wRC+. That’ll play.

• ZiPS likes the newcomers – Both Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe are projected to slot in to the Nationals lineup and do what they were signed to do: rake. In his second go-round on the club, Bell projects to hit 20 home runs with a 109 wRC+. For Lowe, he’s been tabbed to hit 18 of his own balls over the fence with a 121 wRC+, 70 RBI (tied for second on the club) and a team-leading .277 batting average.

• CJ Abrams has a career year – we’ve already seen Abrams go 20-30 while making the All-Star Game, but we have yet to see him put up 2.7 fWAR, which is precisely what ZiPS forecasts. The speedy shortstop has a fan in ZiPS, as the projection system believes he’ll lead the Nationals in both runs scored (82) and stolen bases (31).

Nationals ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

• MacKenzie Gore goes for two in a row – Gore put up 3.2 fWAR last year while finally delivering on the sky-high potential he showed back when he was a Padres prospect. While his 2024 was far from perfect, he gave the Nationals a full 32-start season with a 3.90 ERA and 3.53 FIP across 166 innings. ZiPS has his 2025 season consisting of 28 starts with a 3.98 ERA (second on the team) and 3.84 FIP (first on the team). It seems that the Nats have found their stable presence atop the rotation.

• ZiPS doesn’t buy into Jake Irvin‘s 2025 – The projection system really likes the Nationals’ offense, but outside of Gore, the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Irvin made 33 starts this past season and at times looked like the team’s co-ace-in-the-making. However, his 5.90 second-half ERA led to him limping to the finish line. ZiPS has him leading the team in starts in 2025 but sporting a 4.55 ERA and 4.61 FIP while seeing his fWAR dip from 1.8 to 1.1.

• A former top prospect’s decline continues – Dating back to 2020, Jackson Rutledge has been the Nationals’ third-best prospect (2020), then second-best (2021), fourth-best (2022) and 11th-best (2023) before falling off entirely in 2024. He struggled in his first four big league starts in 2023 just to sport a ghastly 6.40 ERA in 27 minor league starts this past season, cratering his value. ZiPS believes the right-hander will make 24 starts in the coming season, but a 5.03 ERA and 4.92 FIP don’t exactly scream “can’t-miss prospect” any more.

• Trevor Williams reverts back to his old ways – Before suddenly sporting 2.0 fWAR for the first time since 2018 this past year, Williams had seen his own value dip significantly. He bounced back in a big way in 2024, albeit in a brief 13-game stint, but he was able to turn it into another contract with the Nationals. In a full season’s workload, ZiPS has the veteran making just 17 starts with a mid-4.60s ERA and a HR/9 rate and BABIP that rank near the bottom of the team’s leaderboards.

Relief Pitchers

• Kyle Finnegan will be sorely missed at the back-end of the bullpen – Jorge Lopez is currently projected to be the Nationals’ closer, but ZiPS has him logging just 14 saves. Derek Law (12) and Jose Ferrer (10) are the others projected to finish the year in the double-digits in saves. Finnegan registered 38 of them this past season and was the Nationals’ most solid closer they’d had in years. Fortunately there’s still time to re-sign him before the season begins.

• ZiPS says Derek Law remains an oft-used weapon – During the 2024 campaign, only four pitchers finished the year with more appearances than Law (75). ZiPS has him dialing it back a bit in 2025, this time making 60 appearances, but even that has just 10 pitchers above him on the leaderboards. He’s been versatile and consistent for the Nationals since day one, and I’m sure they’d happily take his projected 3.82 ERA and 3.99 FIP for another year.

• Growing pains for the Rule 5 pick – On the surface, it’s easy to see why Evan Reifert interested the Nationals as a Rule 5 selection. The right-hander struck out over 14 batters per nine innings last year for the Rays’ Double-A affiliate, sporting a sparkling 1.96 ERA to go with it. However, he’s had issues with control over the years and ZiPS is looking at his first 33-game stint in the big leagues to consist of a BB/9 over 5.00 and an ERA and FIP both in the 4.80 range. If it helps at all, his 9.97 projected K/9 would lead the team.

Final Thoughts

The Nationals play in one of baseball’s toughest divisions, but it’s clear that they’re slowly developing the pieces to turn the tides in the standings. In 2025, ZiPS clearly is a huge fan of the team’s offense, led by the likes of Wood, Lowe, Abrams and even Bell. It seems that scoring runs is not going to be an issue for them.

However, run-prevention will be tough with the pitching staff as currently assembled. Outside of Gore the starter and Law the reliever, there’s a whole lot of uncertainty and underperformance projected for this team’s pitching staff.

In recent years, we’ve seen teams (see: 2024 Royals, 2024 Tigers) outperform the projections and find a way to stump the system. It’s entirely possible that we see the Nationals do that in the upcoming season, but don’t say you didn’t see it coming if this year ultimately looks eerily similar to last.