Top Notes From the Athletics ZiPS Projections for 2025

For the first time in what feels like a lifetime, the Athletics have been active in free agency. While the MLBPA is forcing their hand to an extent, seeing the A’s add is refreshing, nonetheless. Their 69-win total in 2024 was far short of successful, but their 19-win improvement from the year prior with a .500 second half leaves fans with hope for a better 2025.

Let’s be clear, the A’s are not barreling toward a playoff-caliber season. As of today, they’re looking at a projected win total somewhere in the 70s. However, several young pieces established themselves last season and will look to build upon their success.

Moreover, the Athletics did not trade slugger Brent Rooker, instead giving him a new deal. Luis Severino, Jeffery Springs, Gio Urshela, and José Leclerc were the team’s main additions.

You can see why a fanbase that has been through the wringer can smile, or at least grin, heading into the season. Of course, which players take a step forward or a step back will play a pivotal role in the Athletics’ success. Luckily, we can play the prediction game.

If you aren’t familiar with ZiPS, allow me to give you a brief introduction. ZiPS is a player projection model created by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski and refined over the past 20-plus years. The system uses a combination of past performances, aging trends, and player comparisons to help predict how certain players will perform in the upcoming season.

I highly suggest reading all that goes into the system here.

While any projection model is far from perfect, ZiPS is considered one of, if not the, best in the industry. Today I’m going to dive into the Athletics projections and highlight some of the numbers that stood out to me – good and bad.

Athletics ZiPS: Position Players

Right off the bat, you can see the strength of this team is the lineup. Lawrence Butler broke out in a massive way in 2024, and Brent Rooker answered any questions about how sustainable his 2023 season was.

With so many young players in the mix, the results can vary. Still, the upside of an above-average offense is well within reality.

• Middle infield is suddenly a strength – Shortstop has not been a strong position for the A’s the past few seasons. Replacing Nick Allen with Just Baseball’s no. 38 overall prospect, Jacob Wilson, is a massive upgrade. Wilson possesses elite bat-to-ball skills, making his .286 projected average seem like it’s at the lower end of possibilities. His power will hamper his fWAR projection, but the A’s have their shortstop of the future.
  
  ZiPS is also buying a bounceback from Zack Gelof, who posted an 82 wRC+ in 2024 following a 132 wRC+ season in his debut. He is projected for a 102 wRC+. Being a true 20/20 threat with plus defense should help Gelof reach his projected 2.6 fWAR, and getting his strikeout rate under 30% could see that number climb. This is a promising double play combination for the A’s.

• Disappointment from Tyler Soderstrom – Soderstrom was a consensus top-50 prospect before his debut and showed promise in a 61-game sample in 2024. He dropped his strikeout rate by six percent compared to his debut season and showed above-average power as a 22-year-old.
  
  However, ZiPS thinks Soderstrom’s strikeout rate will climb back up from 24% to 27%, resulting in power production that does not equal last season’s pace. Due to his swing-and-miss and defensive issues, the fWAR production falls to 0.4. However, I do think another offseason of development will lead to a better player, and there is a good chance Soderstrom will surpass his projections.

• Colby Thomas break out – The A’s have seen a few young outfielders break out recently, and Colby Thomas might be the next in line. The 2022 second-round pick spent time in both Double and Triple-A in 2024 posting a combined .277/.342/.563, 31 home runs, and 131 wRC+. With veterans Miguel Andujar and Seth Brown as options in left, Thomas will have to impress early to steal a spot.
  
  Fellow rookie Denzel Clarke is another intriguing option and highly rated prospect, but I think Thomas has an edge. His ZiPS projection is 20 home runs across 131 games with a 104 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. Stealing at-bats from Brown, or finding a way to factor in as a platoon piece, is well within the range of possibilities for Thomas.
  

• A new trajectory for JJ Bleday – The former first-round pick finally looked like a major leaguer at 26 years old, posting a 120 wRC+, clouting 20 home runs, and racking up 43 doubles. His strikeout rate continued to decline, while walking at a 10.4% rate made him a tough out.
  
  Instead of Bleday taking another step forward, ZiPS projects Bleday to settle in as an above-average, useful player. We are still looking at 21 home runs, but a projected dip in his BABIP results in a projected 0.8 dip in his fWAR. Keep in mind: This projection weighs previous seasons where Bleday struggled to adjust, and his changes from last season could mean the projection is low.

Athletics ZiPS: Pitching Staff

If the lineup’s projections have you excited, the pitching staff’s will neutralize your mood. The three major additions – Severino, Springs, and Leclerc – are less than inspiring.

A rotation lacking top-of-the-rotation arms and a bullpen with more questions than answers is not exactly an ideal combination. Although a couple of prospects have upside, a true blue chip option is not on the cusp of the big leagues.

• Rotation remains a problem – The A’s have improved their rotation, but not to the point of it being a strength. Severino was solid for the Mets but faded a bit down the stretch, leaving a bit of doubt about how productive he will be. Springs has been great when healthy but has made a total of 10 starts since 2022, leaving questions about his innings output.
  
  Aside from Springs, ZiPS envisions each of the A’s projected starters with an ERA of 4.30 or higher. They’re passable starters, but not exactly options the team can rely on to produce every fifth day. The A’s will need a surprise from someone like Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, or one of the other back-end/depth options in order to surpass their projected win total.

• A steep fall-off in the bullpen – Before the José Leclerc addition, Mason Miller was essentially a one-man show in the bullpen. ZiPS still loves Miller and projects him at a 2.81 ERA and 13.08 K/9, but the fall-off after Miller is significant. Leclerc had a less impressive 2024 which jumped his ERA projection to 3.99, though I think he can outperform that number.
  
  The rest of the bullpen options have yet to show legitimate success at the major league level –at least not in a sample size large enough to boost their projections. Michael Otañez and Grant Holman both have some intrigue, but it is likely someone not currently in the ‘pen will need to step up. Perhaps a former starter can make the transition and offer enough to help carry the load until Miller enters the game.

• Keep an eye on Jack Perkins – Perkins, the A’s no. 17 overall prospect, is a pitcher that I have personally been high on for some time. The 2022 fifth-round pick excelled in Double-A last season, pitching to the tune of a 2.96 ERA with an 11.84 K/9. He produces ground balls at an above-average rate and limits home runs.
  
  ZiPS has him projected to make 15 starts with the A’s at a 4.22 ERA. Considering the lack of upside with most of the other options, and the fact that Perkins is Rule 5 eligible next offseason, there’s a path for him to be inserted into the rotation early enough to make a difference.

• Trade acquisitions still not producing – Trading away key players over the past several seasons has netted the A’s several arms that were supposed to help them in the future. Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes, J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Luis Medina, JP Sears, and Ken Waldichuk remain on the 40-man roster, all with middling to no projected impact.
  
  Sears has been the best of the bunch and is projected to be a back-of-the-rotation arm to eat innings with a 4.48 ERA. Estes could round out the rotation, but a projected 4.89 ERA makes his spot far from set in stone. The others from this list are either injured or projected to serve as depth pieces. That’s far from the expectations the A’s had when they acquired each of them, and it’s one reason why their rebuild is moving so slowly.
  

Athletics ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Regardless of what the projections say, the A’s will be a much more entertaining and exciting team in 2025. As long as you can look past the distraction that will be their new home ballpark, watching Rooker launch baseballs and Butler put on a show will make for a fun summer.

Due to a smaller sample size, younger players can often throw projection systems for a loop. The systems cannot account for adjustments or changes a player makes that can drastically affect that player’s future. While the projections are fun, do not be surprised if they are off for a few of the A’s players.

I will say the A’s are finally on a path toward better baseball. Keeping Rooker shows the front office is not only looking to churn through players and continue to see how cheap they can make a roster. The farm system has started to improve, and you can squint and see a glimmer of hope on the horizon.