Top Notes From the Toronto Blue Jays ZiPS Projections for 2025

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays fell short in just about every way they could. They were doomed from the start, having put together a dreadful 2023-2024 offseason that was highlighted by them missing out on Shohei Ohtani and multiple other big-name free agents.

The 74-win showing they put together during the regular season earned them a last-place finish in the AL East and it’s difficult to see them bouncing back too far from that in the upcoming campaign.

After all, the 2024-25 offseason went just about the same way the previous one did. This time around, it was Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, and Roki Sasaki that were within striking distance. However, the big difference this year is that the club landed Andres Gimenez, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer instead of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Here to help us look ahead to 2025 is ZiPS, one of the very best projection systems around. For those that aren’t familiar with ZiPS and what it’s all about, here’s some additional info courtesy of MLB.com:

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) via MLB.com

ZiPS first took a look at the Blue Jays in early January, but since then the club has added more faces to the fold, so we’ll use the leaderboards for our analysis.

Check out even more of our ZiPS projections here.

Blue Jays ZiPS: Position Players

• “Tony Taters” comes as advertised – Anthony Santander was the Blue Jays’ top offensive addition this offseason. While some in the industry believe he’s a clear regression candidate, ZiPS doesn’t share that sentiment. In fact, he currently projects to lead the Blue Jays in home runs (35) while finishing in a tie at the top of the leaderboards in RBI (99). That’ll play.

• Walk-year performances carry the team – The upcoming free agencies of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will dominate the headlines all year long for the Blue Jays. Both players are planning on testing the open market once their contracts are up. Guerrero projects to finish seventh in baseball with a 148 wRC+ along with 4.4 fWAR, while Bichette projects to hit .281 with a 115 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in what should be a nice bounce-back year for him.

• A new addition leads the team in fWAR – Surprisingly, Andres Gimenez projects to be the Blue Jays’ most valuable position player. Of course, his outstanding defense will carry him to the 4.6 fWAR mark ZiPS projects, but he’s not going to be a black-hole on offense. In fact, ZiPS sees him hitting 13 home runs while driving in 70, stealing 26 bases and putting up a respectable 108 wRC+.

• The bats are back – In a development that’ll leave Blue Jays fans ecstatic, 16 players project to post a wRC+ of 100. That group includes George Springer and Daulton Varsho, both of whom could use a solid offensive season. 10 players also project to hit 15 or more home runs.

Blue Jays ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Rotation

• It’s Kevin Gausman‘s world and we’re just living in it – Each year Gausman’s been on the Blue Jays, he’s been the undisputed staff ace. Last season may have been a “down” one for him, but even then he posted a 3.83 ERA and 3.77 FIP. ZiPS projects that he’ll lead the Blue Jays’ rotation with 2.8 fWAR across 28 starts, posting a 3.65 ERA in 162.2 innings.

• Jose Berrios remains a workhorse – Little known fact: Berrios has never once been on the injured list. He’s made 32 or more starts six times across a nine-year career, with the COVID-shortened 2020 season mixed in there and two years at the way beginning of his big league career where he was still getting his feet underneath him. Every other year? He’s been nails. Unsurprisingly, ZiPS has him leading the Blue Jays in both starts and innings pitched in 2025.

• The addition of Max Scherzer proves to be the right one – Scherzer represents the biggest addition to the Blue Jays’ starting rotation, and ZiPS thinks he’ll be a solid piece. Coming off of an injury-shortened season, Scherzer projects to make 20 starts and post the lowest ERA (3.61) amongst qualifying starters on the Blue Jays. That’ll play.

Bullpen

• Jeff Hoffman takes nicely to the closer’s role – Since breaking into the league back in 2016, Hoffman has never been a club’s full-time closer. Yet, his 10-save showing on last year’s Phillies showed the Blue Jays enough to give him the gig in 2025. Hoffman projects to lead the team in saves (26), K/9 (11.12), ERA (2.67), FIP (2.90), and HR/9 (0.74).

• Who’s this Richard Lovelady fella? – The Blue Jays quietly signed Lovelady to a minor league contract at the tail end of January, and ZiPS is a big fan. He projects to make 47 appearances while boasting one of the lowest HR/9s, BB/9s, ERAs, and FIPs on the entire pitching staff. It remains to be seen if he’ll get the opportunities out of the Blue Jays’ big league bullpen, but he deserves a long look.

• Ryan Burr is the real deal – Burr looked “just okay” on the 2024 Blue Jays, but his 3.07 FIP and 12.9 K/9 (his previous career-high was 9.2) instilled enough confidence in him to give him another shot in 2025. ZiPS thinks he’s got another season of 10+ K/9 (10.27) while being one of the best run-prevention machines on the staff. Burr, unlike Lovelady, basically is already a lock to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. The right-hander will turn 31 in May, but ZiPS thinks the best is yet to come for the late bloomer.

Final Thoughts

Unfortunately, not many people or outlets around the industry think much of the 2025 Blue Jays. However, it’s clear that ZiPS projections like what they see from this team, so perhaps all is not lost before the season even officially begins.

The Blue Jays are in a weird spot with two of their superstars getting ready to depart via free agency. A pair of strong walk-year performances paired with some standout showings from the new guys could very well give the team a fighting chance to hang on in an extremely tough division.

Time will tell.