Max Scherzer Agrees To One-Year Deal With Blue Jays
Toronto's offseason luck continued to improve on Thursday, as the team agreed to terms with future a Hall of Famer.
The Toronto Blue Jays have had as poor of luck as any organization in free agency in recent offseasons after narrowly falling short on numerous big-time names the last two winters.
Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki all passed on the opportunity to take their talents north of the border, opting for the mega markets of Los Angeles and New York instead.
However, the Jays have fared better on the open market in recent weeks, after agreeing to terms with a pair of 2024 All-Stars in closer Jeff Hoffman and switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander.
Now Toronto can add another piece to the puzzle for 2025 after coming to an agreement with three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5 million contract, as first reported by Jon Heyman.
It may have been a slow start to the offseason, but Scherzer marks yet another big-time veteran coming through the door in Toronto, as the Jays are starting to position themselves back into the contention conversation for 2025.
What the Blue Jays Are Getting in Scherzer
The thing that sticks out about Scherzer is obviously the accolades. On top of his three Cy Young Awards, he also has eight All-Star appearances and two World Series titles to his name.
Now, the 2024 season was a tough one for Scherzer, as the 40-year-old veteran spent a majority of the year on the IL.
However, when he was on the mound, he put up some respectable numbers. In nine starts, he threw to the tune of a 3.95 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP.
He’s definitely not the same arm that he was when he was bringing home the hardware. From 2023 to 2024, his K-rate fell by 5.4%, he saw a 21-point spike in his AVG against, and his fastball velo continued to dip, falling from 93.7 mph to 92.5 mph.
It wasn’t all doom in gloom in 2024 for Scherzer though, as he displayed several redeeming qualities in his 17th big league season.
One of these was the fact he was able to improve his walk rate in 2024, going from 7.2% in 2023 down to 5.6%.
Although his fastball may have diminished in quality, two of his main secondary offerings fared very well last season.
His slider (used 22.1% of the time) went from an offering that hitters posted a .250 AVG and .545 SLG against in 2023 to a .214 AVG and .333 SLG against last year.
His changeup (used 13.9% of the time) remained strong last season, as hitters dipped below the Mendoza line against it, falling to a .192 AVG against in 2024 from a .207 AVG in 2023.
Furthermore, while Scherzer struggled to remain available in 2024, his consistency in making his appearances prior to last season should be commended as well.
From 2009 to 2023, Scherzer’s lowest innings total (outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, in which he made all 12 starts and pitched 67.1 innings), was 145.1 innings with the Mets in 2022.
In that time, he led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched with 2778.2.
He may be in his forties now, but Scherzer continues to prove that he still has a lot to offer at the major league level.
How Scherzer Fits into Toronto’s Plans for 2025
While we’ve established that Scherzer is likely no longer the Cy Young-caliber pitcher he once was, the Blue Jays don’t need him to be that kind of arm next season.
With a rotation that already features Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and Chris Bassitt in the front four spots, Toronto just needed a more reliable option than Yariel Rodríguez to round out the starting five.
In his debut season in MLB in 2024, Rodríguez looked a little shaky, posting a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 21 starts.
So, if Scherzer can stay in the realm of a high-3.00s or low-4.00s ERA, he’ll be more than a suitable option for that five-spot role.
On top of providing an upgrade over Rodríguez, Scherzer also provides a bit of insurance for a few potential regression candidates in Francis and Bassitt.
Francis was incredible in the final two months of the regular season, as from Aug. 7 onwards he posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.53 WHIP and .121 AVG against across his final nine starts.
As spectacular as he was to end the year, we have to remember it was only a small sample size. The likelihood of Francis matching those numbers over a full season is extremely unlikely, especially given the fact he entered that stretch with an ERA well north of 5.00.
Then there’s Bassitt, who remained a workhorse last season with 171.0 innings pitched but saw his ERA rise to over 4.00 for the first time since 2016.
Along with this, his WHIP also spiked from 1.18 in 2023 to 1.46 in 2024, his AVG against jumped 35 points to .268, and his BB/9 rate jumped from 2.66 to 3.68 as well.
As Rodríguez and Francis both continue to establish their footing in the big leagues and Bassitt gets another year older, Scherzer can help mitigate any downfall that could occur with those three arms and help keep the Blue Jays’ rotation a top-half entity in MLB like it was in 2024.
All in all, Toronto brought in a winner and ultra-competitor in Scherzer. Regardless of his age, that’s never a bad option to add to the fold.
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