Top Notes From the Boston Red Sox ZiPS Projections for 2025

Despite missing the postseason for the third consecutive season in 2024, the Boston Red Sox have as much upside as any, coming off a season in which they clawed their way back to a .500 record for the first time since 2021.

The Red Sox already entered the winter featuring the likes of All-Star talent in Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck.

They pair that big-league notoriety with a top-tier farm system headlined by the likes three blue-chip prospects in Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, who all rank within the Top 50 of our most recent Top 100 prospects list.

Then, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow went out and made some major splashes on both the free agent and trade markets to elevate this team even further.

They landed their new ace in Garrett Crochet in a Winter Meetings blockbuster trade with the Chicago White Sox. They also signed one of the biggest positional names in the 2024-25 free-agent class in two-time All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman.

The Sox also added a series of high upside signings to the fold, such as two-time World Series champion starter Walker Buehler and an all-time closing great in Aroldis Chapman, both of which add to feeling of increased optimism in Boston.

So as MLB Spring Training is upon us, we are in the season of projecting what 2025 could look like for this up-and-coming Red Sox roster.

Over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection model to forecast what might be in store for each name on the Red Sox’s roster this season.

To fully grasp how this model works, I encourage you read this article explaining all things ZiPS.

This is a Boston team that by all accounts is going for it this season, so let’s dive into what might be in store for them.

Red Sox ZiPS: Position Players

• Devers to deliver once again – After returning to All-Star status with a tremendous .272/.374/.516 slash line with 28 HR, 83 RBI, a 134 wRC+ and a 4.1 fWAR in 2024, ZiPS projects much of the same for the 28-year-old third baseman for this upcoming campaign.
  
  The model has him leading the charge for this contending-centered Red Sox team with a 131 wRC+, the culmination of a projected .269/.349/.505 slash line with 30 HR and 95 RBI.
  
  Not only is he the Red Sox’s offensive rock in the lineup, he’s a bonified superstar at the dish from a league-wide perspective as well according to ZiPS. He sits within the Top 20 in wRC+ (T-20th), RBI (T-15th), SLG (12th) and OPS (16th), while also sitting Top 10 in HR (T-10th).
  
  Regardless of what position he might end up playing at, amid a infield fiasco following the Bregman signing, his bat will continue to be the trademark element of his game.

• New Home, Same Bregman – Bregman may be trading his Astro orange for Red Sox red in 2025, but his bat projects to be the same productive bat we saw last season when he posted a 4.1 fWAR, 118 wRC+ and .260/.315/.453 slash line with 26 HR and 75 RBI.
  
  According to the model, He’s slated to be a 119 wRC+ hitter in his debut year at Fenway (tied for the third highest mark on the team), thanks to a .252/.333/.430 slash line with 22 HR and 82 RBI.
  
  Bregman projects to not only be offensive force, but a defensive pillar as well, regardless of whether that’s at second or third base.
  
  His defense is predicted to be one of the best amongst Red Sox regulars, as a 4.4 DEF rating would be the third highest clip amongst Red Sox players with at least 130 projected games played (only trailing Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran).

• Casas is the Robin to Devers’ Batman – After returning from a lengthy IL spell Casas continued the impressive stretch of big league seasons he’s strung together in both 2022 and 2023 (120 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ respectively). In 63 games in 2024 Casas posted a 119 wRC+ with an .800 OPS and 13 HR in 63 games.
  
  Given his solid showings so far in the early stages of his big career, ZiPS sees Casas not only improving slightly in 2025, but being the second most productive bat in Boston’s lineup.
  
  Among regulars with at least 400 projected plate appearances, his 124 wRC+ and .811 OPS sit second on the Red Sox roster behind only Devers, while posting the best walk-rate (13.2%) and top three totals in HR (19) and BB/K (0.50).

• A slower year for Duran at the dish – After following up a 120 wRC+ in 102 games in 2023 with a 129 wRC+ season across 160 games in 2024, Duran is in store for somewhat of an offensive regression this upcoming season.
  
  ZiPS projects the 28-year-old’s wRC+ to fall 15 points to a 114 mark, with coinciding drops in AVG (.284 to .262), OBP (.342 to .324), SLG (.492 to .455) and homers (21 to 18).
  
  His ZiPS projections are nothing to brush aside as they still constitute an above average hitting season. However, after the campaign he just had, it would be an underwhelming season in comparison if it were to play out like this for Duran.

• Kristian Campbell projects better than Roman Anthony – Anthony seems to steal the spotlight among most prospects, especially those alongside him in the Red Sox system, as the No. 1 overall prospect in Just Baseball’s final Top 100 prospect list of 2024.
  
  However, when it comes to the ZiPS model, Campbell is the favored rookie in 2025. In 509 projected plate apperances the second baseman is slated at a 119 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR compared to Anthony’s 104 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR across 554 plate appearances.
  
  Regardless of whether or not Campbell and Anthony actually get the MLB game time ZiPS projects them at amidst Boston’s current big league log jam in both the infield and outfield, it’s fascinating to know that Campbell’s bat is predicted to have the edge.

• Catching could be a problem – There’s no denying that Connor Wong had himself a break out campaign in 2024 after posting a 110 wRC+ with a .280/.333/.425 slash line.
  
  ZiPS however views this past year as somewhat of an anomaly though, with Wong projected to post a below league average 98 wRC+ with a .254/.308/.408 slash line.
  
  After losing veteran Danny Jansen in free agency and dealing their prospective future at the position in Kyle Teel to the White Sox in the Crochet deal, there’s suddenly a lot riding on Wong and shortage of quality backing him up behind the plate.
  
  FanGraphs’ RosterResource currently projects Carlos Narvaez as Wong’s backup, but ZiPS only sees him as an 80 wRC+ hitter. Then the likes of Nathan Hickey (83 wRC+), Blake Sabol (95 wRC+), Ronald Rosario (61 wRC+) and Seby Zavala (67 wRC+) all offer little to nothing in support themselves.

Red Sox ZiPS: Pitching Staff

• Garrett Crochet is Cy Young-caliber – Crochet pitched his last start above 4.0 innings in 2024 on June 30, amidst a “will they, won’t they” trade situation starting around the trade deadline and then leading into the offseason.
  
  Before that however, Crochet was as lethal an arm as the MLB had, with a first half 3.02 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, .199 BAA, 12.58 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9.
  
  ZiPS projects the new Red Sox ace to have a 2025 performance similar to what he looked like before the limitations were placed on him last season. The model predicts him at a 2.93 ERA, only trailing Tarik Skubal, as well as at 2.74 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, .220 BAA, 11.27 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9.

• Tanner Houck to build off his breakout – With all the changes the Red Sox have made to their roster this offseason in pursuit of a return to the postseason, one thing that remains the same is Tanner Houck being a front-half starter.
  
  After a breakout campaign in 2024 resulting in his first career All-Star nod, he’s among the top options to back up the new ace in town in Crochet. ZiPS projects him to accumulate the second highest starter fWAR in the organization (2.8) by pitching to the respectable tune of a 3.82 ERA and 3.68 FIP.
  
  While it may not be the same level of performance as he put up in ’24, Houck should likely not be reverting back to the 5.01 ERA arm he was in ’23.

• The jury’s still out on Walker Buehler – After a World Series masterclass to help soften the blow of a 5.38 ERA regular season campaign in his return from Tommy John, the Red Sox have a potential prime bounce-back candidate on their hands.
  
  While Buehler does have Cy Young-caliber upside, with a fourth place finish in NL voting in 2021, ZiPS has taken a more cautious approach to his bounce-back pursuit.
  
  The model projects him at a 3.92 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and .252 BAA, respectable totals but not the same type of performance he put up in seasons’ past or even this past October.

• Boston’s a two-Garrett town – After a year riddled with injury, ZiPS has high hopes for Garrett Whitlock in 2025, no matter what role he plays.
  
  Despite his injuries in 2024, Whitlock did throw to a sub-2.00 ERA in four starts. This likely played a big role in him ranking second in ERA among Red Sox starting options at 3.61, as well as second in FIP (3.51) and tied for first in WHIP (1.16).
  
  While the projected role he’ll play is ambiguous according the the model, with only 11 of his projected 25 appearances being starts, the point remains that Whitlock should play a key role regardless in 2025.

• A closer conundrum – The Red Sox have a good problem on their hands as they’re currently spoiled for choice when it comes to deciding who will occupy the ninth inning. As it stands Aroldis Chapman, Liam Hendriks and Justin Slaten all having legitimate cases to claim the closers role.
  
  ZiPS currently has Hendriks as the projected leader in saves at 22 as well as in WHIP at 1.27. Champman however, leads Sox relievers in fWAR (0.7), ERA (3.33), FIP (3.22) and K/9 (13.86) along with 12 projected saves himself. Then Slaten ends up projecting second in most statistical categories out of the three closing options.
  
  It’s always better to have a surplus of quality backend relief arms than a shortage, and the Red Sox certainly have some high-end anchor options to choose from.

Red Sox ZiPS – Final Thoughts

The Red Sox’s tool chest is as full as it’s been in years. There’s a great mix of top-end talent and extreme upside within their lineup, they have a legitimate ace leading the charge in a rotation that overperformed expectations last season and their bullpen is led by a potentially formidable trio in the backend.

The Sox aren’t perfect though. They’re not without their limitations at certain positions, they’re relying on both bounce-backs as well as some repeat performances from certain players and they’re in as competitive a division as any in the AL East.

However there’s no denying that Boston will be an exciting watch in 2025, as they look more than capable of achieving their ZiPS projected record of 84-78, firmly putting them in the AL wild card hunt.