Top Notes From the New York Yankees ZiPS Projections for 2025

The Yankees are coming off their first World Series appearance since winning their 27th in 2009. A memorable season that will be somewhat clouded after superstar Juan Soto left to take his talents to Queens. Losing Soto is massive, but the Yankees didn’t stand pat.

Veterans Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt were all brought in to keep the foot on the gas and push toward a return to the World Series.

Even with these additions, the Yankees group of young homegrown talent will need to step up to help balance their lineup and take so much reliance off the top third.

Despite Soto’s departure, our friends at BetMGM have their win total set at 93.5, in line with last season’s 94-68 record. We can argue if the Yankees are better than last year or not until we are blue in the face. Instead, let’s dive into their projections and see why New York can still manage to have a top-tier team.

By now I’m sure you have heard of ZiPS projections, a system developed by FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski that tries to predict production for each player. A large emphasis is placed on past performance combined with aging trends with several other factors incorporated. I highly suggest reading the full explanation here.

ZiPS still likes the Yankees overall, but a deeper dive reveals a few concerns that could come up throughout the season. If these concerns come to fruition, or are addressed in season, could be the difference in the Yankees’ season.

Yankees ZiPS: Position Players

Did the Yankees replace Soto and Torres with production or just names you know? Can Austin Wells carry 70% of the load behind the plate? Which young players will cement themselves as true core pieces moving forward? Hopefully working through this exercise will help you answer a few of these questions.

A team coming off a World Series appearances to have this many unknowns, or different possibilities, is what makes the 2025 Yankees such an intriguing team.

• Not only replacing Soto, but Judge’s production – I promise this will be the last time I mention Soto. Let’s clear the air, replacing his 8.1 fWAR with another player isn’t going to happen, and that’s okay. But, don’t forget Judge had arguably the best season of his career breaching 50 home runs for the third time and turning in an 11.2 fWAR.
  
  Although this is the second time in three seasons Judge has eclipsed 11 fWAR, he is projected to dip to 7.7 this season, which is still remarkable. I don’t see this as a knock on Judge as much as a simple regression to the mean.
  
  Projection systems will not predict 11 fWAR seasons, no matter who you are. Now, the Yankees are tasked with making up even more ground in the outfield to break even.

• Jasson Dominguez Flashes Potential – Speaking of the Yankees outfield, touted prospect Jasson Dominguez is projected to start in left after an underwhelming season from Alex Verdugo. I’ll go ahead and do the thing where I remind you Dominguez just recently turned 22 years old and is developing, be patient.
  
  Now, I’ll do the thing where I buy into his .254/.324/.420, 16 HR, 20 SB, 2.0 fWAR projections. The switch-hitter is immensely talented and the Yankees of the luxury of starting him in the bottom third of the order.
  
  As he settles in, I think he could climb his way up the lineup helping to break up what leans toward a righty-heavy lineup. Dominguez hitting his projection would be a significant upgrade over Verdugo or the alternative, Trent Grisham, giving the Yankees the extra thump they still need.

• Jazz continues improving in Yankees Uniform – I might be off, but has Jazz Chisholm Jr. become underrated? Getting out of Miami was the best thing for Jazz and it showed on the field. In only 46 games as a Yankee, he eclipsed his WAR output as a Marlin while seeing his OPS jump from .730 to .825. The power took a major jump and he was more active on the basepaths leading me to believe a monster season could be in store.
  
  ZiPS is projecting 24 home runs, 32 stolen bases, 115 wRC+, and a 3.6 fWAR, and they are on the lower end of projections. If he can bottle the Jazz we saw in a small sample once he arrived in New York, watch out. Better swing decisions led to a lower strikeout rate and the short porch in right will benefit his power production.

• Third base is a major issue – Jazz is likely to move back to second leaving Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu, and Oswald Peraza in the mix at third. Cabrera has a projected 1.6 fWAR but his defensive versatility carries value more than his bat. Keeping him in a super-utility role might be best for the team.
  
  LeMahieu continues down a path of decreased production and injury problems as he enters his age-36 season. Projected for a 92 wRC+ with only six home runs, that’s not nearly enough for an everyday third baseman.
  
  Peraza comes with the best prospect pedigree and is coming off an injury of his own. Although last season wasn’t great, and mostly spent in the minors, ZiPS is the highest on him projecting a 2.0 fWAR, but I find that lofty. Don’t be surprised if someone not mentioned is the third baseman come October.
  

• Ben Rice carves out a role – Rice excelled at each spot through the minors showing massive power and an excellent eye for the zone. In his 50-game sample with the Yankees, the power output was not the same (7 home runs) and his defensive struggles only tanked his value.
  
  With Goldschmidt now at first, Rice will have to hit, and hit a ton, in order to carve out a role. ZiPS is projecting an impactful season with 22 home runs and a 114 wRC+. I find it difficult for Rice to get that much playing time, but getting that level of production from a guy on the outside looking in would be a significant boost to this lineup.
  

Yankees ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Even without Gerrit Cole for a portion of the season, the Yankees rotation did not miss a beat. Luis Gil surprised many by coming back from injury to win Rookie of the Year. Clarke Schmidt had a breakout and Luke Weaver went from a failed starter to a dominate reliever.

With Max Fried and Devin Williams highlighting the new additions, the Yankees are looking to make their pitching a strength.

• Gerrit Cole trending in the wrong direction – Cole, 34, is coming off a season where injury limited him to 17 starts which resulted in a 3.41 ERA and 3.69 FIP. His strikeout numbers continue to tick down and he’s allowing more contact than in years past.
  
  No, he’s not nose-diving off a cliff, but I am not sure if we will see the workhorse Ace that the Yankees signed in 2019.
  
  Due to his injury, ZiPS projects less than 150 innings, although innings projections can be a bit wonky. His projected 3.64 ERA and 3.79 FIP are very solid numbers, just not the Gerrit Cole we once knew. If Cole does start to decline, even slightly, the rest of the rotation is going to have to step up. But wait…

• Rotation red flags? – Not only is Cole’s dip concerning, but injuries across this entire rotation has ZiPS concerned. Max Fried showed he could bounce back from injury last season and is projected to be exactly what the Yankees signed him to be. However, ZiPS is projecting Carlos Rodon (151 IP) as the only other starter to surpass 150 innings.
  
  Injury is an issue and the Yankees do not have the depth to withstand any major blows. How Marcus Stroman factors in is yet to be determined. Rookie sensation Luis Gil is projected for a step back in production instead of building upon his first full year making the rotation more concerning than it appears on paper.

• Less dominate Luke Weaver – What Luke Weaver became for the Yankees is nothing short of incredible. After back-to-back seasons with ERA’s over 6.00, Weaver returned to the bullpen in New York with some changes that led to a 2.89 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and a jump to 11.04 K/9.
  
  Projections systems value multiple years, so Weavers projected 4.09 ERA and 3.82 FIP might be high because the system cannot account for the changes he made once he joined the Yankees. He still allows a decent amount of hard contact and relies heavily on his swing-and-miss. Regardless, Weaver’s regressing would leave the bullpen in a difficult spot trying to get to Williams.

• Bullpen needs a lefty – Sure, the three-batter rule has changed some team’s strategies on carrying lefties. However, the Yankees only having 35-year-old Tim Hill feels reckless. Hill is a pitch-to-contact groundball machine but hardly stable enough to ride into camp without much competition. His projected 4.33 ERA and 4.19 FIP are fine, but what’s plan B?
  
  The 40-man roster has only two other lefties, Rondon and Fried. The Yankees have veterans Tyler Matzek, Brandon Leibrandt, and rookie Jayvien Sandridge as non-roster invitees from the left side. I guess Matzek, coming off an injury season, is your second-best bet but this feels similar to the third-base conversation. Someone else will be added during the season.
  

Yankees ZiPS: Final Thoughts

To me, the Yankees’ success will come down to two main factors, the health of the starting rotation and the younger player taking a step forward. Although the roster looks different than last season, the Yankees are still a strong team that should be able to compete with the best in the American League.

Getting a taste of the World Series last season should have the front office hungry to return. The roster is set up in a way where certain players will have an opportunity to prove themselves early, but the front office can be aggressive in adding if needed.

As much as I like what the Yankees have on paper, we are still talking about the Yankees. The Evil Empire. Sitting back and watching the Dodgers take their position as the bully should not sit well with fans or ownership. Don’t be afraid to be aggressive and chase another ring.