Can Bo Bichette Bounce Back for the Blue Jays in 2025?

Remember when the Toronto Blue Jays were the fun up-and-coming team destined to reach new heights? Although it feels like yesterday, the team’s core is on the verge of dismantling, with 2025 in many ways being a make-or-break year.

After winning 89 games in 2023, Toronto unraveled in 2024, limping to only 74 wins. While blame can be spread all around, star shortstop Bo Bichette was at the root of the Blue Jays’ spiral. He posted an OPS over .800 in each of his first five seasons only to come up shy of .600 last year before injury effectively ended his season.

Bichette had established a level of consistency – reliable for a 120-125 wRC+, 20+ home runs, and 4.0ish fWAR – putting him in an upper tier of shortstops. Last year, he hit drastic career lows across the board, all while heading into a crucial contract season in 2025.

In order for the Blue Jays to rebound and avoid a “one last dance” season, Bichette will need to put 2024 behind him and prove he’s an impact player before reaching the open market.

If you are a Toronto fan reading this, I have good news. I believe last season was a fluke and Bichette will return to being the player this team needs him to be.

Let me explain why.

What Went Wrong for Bo Bichette?

A quick glance at Bichette’s 2024 slash line – .225/.277/.322 – will show you just how awful his season truly was.

Initial thoughts might bring you to question his swing decisions and wonder if he was chasing more pitches or swinging and missing more often. Well, actually, his whiff rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate were all in line with his career norms.

Okay, so was he not making as hard of contact or hitting too many balls in the ground? Nope! All those stats tracked at a similar rate to previous years. The main issue for Bichette was an inability to consistently hit the ball hard while also achieving an optimal launch angle:

Thanks to our friends at Baseball Savant, we can see Bichette struggled to find barrels, which resulted in a career-low 4.4% barrel rate compared to previous seasons in which he sat around 9% to 10%. As a result, his home run-to-fly ball rate dropped to 5.3%, the first time in his career lower it was lower than 15%.

Bichette, who’s more of a line drive hitter, relies on his quality of contact to help lift his power stats by finding gaps and sneaking enough balls over the wall to even out his numbers. He’s been able to sustain high BABIPS (batting average on balls in play) throughout his career, hovering around .350 from 2019-23.

In 2024, that number fell to .269, by far the lowest of his career. A peek at the expected numbers, however, will show a .255 xBA and .375 xSLG compared to his .225 average and .322 slugging.

In the past, Bichette has always hit over .300 on fastballs, and in 2024, that number dropped to .232, despite his lowest career whiff rate on the pitch (12.3%). I should note his expected batting average against velocity was .284, higher, but still short of career norms.

All of this to say, Bichette was unlucky last year, but even the expected stats show a down year. While I’m not in the rumor business, enough signs have pointed to Bichette not being 100% locked in throughout the season.

A rough season and questions about his role in the future likely affected him. Now in a contract year, Bichette cannot afford to be anything other than determined to be his best self.

Healthy With a Lot on the Line

Playing through injuries is nothing new in sports. Hyper-competitive athletes are not wired the same way as you and I and will often push through injuries even if it affects the team.

Bichette dealt with a reoccurring calf injury that seemed to slow him down throughout the season and played a role in his down year. After a few different stints missing time, he was shut down in mid-July and missed two months. Once he returned, a bad hop in the field fractured his finger, putting an end to a forgettable season.

Back to full health and ready to wash last season down the drain, Bichette will enter spring with a clear mind and new perspective, right? Well, it is not that easy.

Bichette is in the final year of his contract with Toronto and will hit the open market for the first time in his career. We know how much pressure contracts years come with, and that is only heightened for a player who massively underperformed the season prior.

At age 27, a long-term deal is very much on the table for Bichette next offseason. Of course, he’ll have to show a team he’s worth the financial commitment or he’ll be stuck with prove-it deal offers.

There have been reports that Bichette does not want to return to Toronto and would rather land elsewhere. Not only does that eliminate one potential suitor (Toronto), but it could be seen as a red flag to some other organizations.

Without a doubt, this is the most important season in Bichette’s career. If he is truly focused on getting out of Toronto, he’ll have to be a much different player than he was last season. The Blue Jays roster is too talented to assume he’ll be moved before the deadline, so a full season of production will be required.

The Data Is Not Far Off

As I mentioned briefly, the data is not flashing red sirens. Bichette was still making contact at an elite rate while making enough impact to be a successful player. And sure, a move to third might be better for him defensively, but the driver of his value is the bat.

I’m willing to lean into the idea that injuries combined with some bad luck is enough of an excuse to buy back into Bichette this season. Players of his caliber do not simply fall off a cliff, especially at 27 years old.

Finding his timing and focusing on which pitches to attack is a reasonable adjustment to expect such a talented player to make, and I think a well-above-average season is in store.

ZiPS, a projection model developed by Dan Szymborski FanGraphs, also believes in Bichette. While the model does not have him breaking the 20 home run threshold, his projected .281/.325/.428 slash line and 3.2 fWAR are numbers that would change the outlook of this Blue Jays team.

Think about the type of profile that has up and down seasons or fades quickly and ask yourself if Bichette fits that mold.

Final Thoughts

Collectively, there’s a bit of tension surrounding the Blue Jays. Maybe not from within the clubhouse, but from the fanbase. Several key free agents were rumored to have competitive offers to join the Blue Jays, and Anthony Santander was the one to sign.

Whether or not the Blue Jays have an issue within their front office or ownership is a completely different article, but we can all agree the Blue Jays are at a crossroads. Several key players are nearing the end of their contracts or aging out of future plans.

This situation can either be motivation for one last run, or it could be what causes the team to fall apart at the seams.

Bichette needs to step up and show he can be a leader, which starts off the field. Prove to your teammates you are focused on winning and dedicated to being the best player you can be in 2025. The rest will follow.