Who Can Give the Cubs a Run for Their Money in 2025?

It’s been sunny skies in the north side of the Windy City to start 2025, as the Chicago Cubs sit atop the NL Central through 47 games, living up to the hype they had surrounding them entering the 2025 campaign.

From an offensive standpoint, this is a top 5 team in baseball in terms of wRC+ (T-3rd at 117), OPS (4th at .773), HR (T-3rd at 65) and RBI (1st at 264).

Kyle Tucker has looked more than worth the hefty investment to acquire him this winter, with 10 HR, 33 RBI, an .897 OPS and a 147 wRC+. Then the young phenom in Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the potential face of the franchise moving forward with his 12 HR, 38 RBI, 14 SB, 150 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR.

When it comes to their pitching, Chicago’s rotation might be hurting with the season ending injury to Justin Steele and the current IL stint of Shota Imanaga, but their core of strong complementary arms have guided them to rank 12th in MLB in ERA (3.71).

Even though their bullpen could due with some improvements, sitting in the middle to lower end of things in 2025, the bulk of the innings on both sides of the ball have been accounted for in a more than adequate way this season.

So now the question is; can anybody catch this Cubs team in the NL Central this season and challenge them for their first division title since 2020.

Who Should the Cubs Be Wary of in the Central?

While divisions are fought between five teams on paper, it’s safe to say that only four teams can make the argument that they have a legitimate claim on the division this year. It still may be early but even with a Cy Young frontrunner like Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-32 and 13.0 GB) look to be in a bit of turmoil, whether it be firing manager Derek Shelton already or an offense that continues to struggle to find answers.

That leaves the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds to provide the strongest divisional competition for the Cubs in 2025.

Milwaukee Brewers

As things stand right now, the Brewers sit the furthest away from the Cubs in the standings at 6.0 games back.

This season has not been the most glamourous of years for the reigning back-to-back NL Central division champions for a multiple reasons, especially on the offensive side of things. They sit 26th with an 83 wRC+ and 27th in OPS at .649.

But the Brewers have some non-traditional bright spots in their lineup that’s helped keep them stay afloat. Rhys Hoskins has made his once burdensome-looking contract look complete worth it with a 134 wRC+ this season. Brice Turang has taken huge leap from an 87 wRC+ in 2024 to a 108 wRC+ in 2025 and has already accumulated nearly half his fWAR total from last season (2.5 fWAR) in less than two months this year (1.1 fWAR). Then, Sal Frelick has found a way to transform himself into a league average hitter, raising his wRC+ up 19 points year-over-year.

What’s held Milwaukee’s offense back has been the slow starts from their top guys in Jackson Chourio (87 wRC+), William Contreras (97 wRC+), and Christian Yelich (81 wRC+). While their starts might raise eyebrows, these are hitters that are, quite frankly, too poised to remain in slumps like this. If they can become the offensive rocks in this lineup that we’ve become accustomed to seeing them be, it would go a long way to getting this team back to be division-winning worthy.

Then there’s the rotation which hasn’t been good nor bad, but merely middle of the road. They hold the 14th best starter ERA at 3.83, the 20th lowest WHIP and the 16th lowest BAA. Again, nothing spectacular, but it’s been more a value to them then their offense has been.

And it’s easy to see the vision of this team’s rotation being the usual crafty unit it’s been in years past. They currently sport five starters this season with an ERA at 3.10 or lower featuring the usual suspects like Freddy Peralta and Jose Quintana, as well as some breakout performances from Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester and Logan Henderson.

Then, there’s the likes of Brandon Woodruff and Nestor Cortes, both of whom are on the injured list. Cortes, a former All-Star, is much better than his 9.00 ERA he started the season with before hitting the shelf, and Woodruff, while being injured since part way through the 2023 season, is the author of four consecutive seasons from 2020-2023 with ERAs no higher than 3.05 and WHIPs no higher than 1.07. Should they re-enter this mix and be the pitchers we’ve seen the be in the past, then this rotation could be poised to move from a middle-of-the-road unit to a top-notch staff.

Then a bullpen with the likes of a sub-1.00 ERA Nick Mears, a sub-2.00 ERA Abner Uribe and a sub-3.00 ERA Trevor Megill is in a better place than a 22nd-ranked ERA and 18th-ranked WHIP would appear to indicate.

It would be a lie to say that the Brewers had it easy in their journey to three-peat in the Central, but if these last few years have taught us anything, its’s that nobody should take this scrappy Brewers team lightly.

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winning 12 of their last 14 games entering Monday, and that’s propelled them to within just two games of the Cubs for first in the division.

From an offensive perspective this Cardinals team cannot be taken lightly, as they’ve been a top-10 lineup virtually across the board. Their 108 wRC+ and .737 OPS sit eighth in the league, their .261 AVG is tied for third, and their 211 RBIs sit ninth.

They’re being lead by the three headed monster of Brendan Donovan (141 wRC+), Lars Nootbaar (121 wRC+) and Willson Contreras (108 wRC+).

What’s also stood out with this group has been their electrifying defense at the other side of ball, as they sit fifth in DRS at 24 and lead the majors in OAA at 28. This has made Nolan Arenado (with 5 OAA and 3 DRS), who continues to struggle to provide with the bat they way he used to in his MVP-caliber days just a few seasons ago, a worthwhile lineup addition even if he is struggling with the bat.

Then there’s St. Louis’ starting rotation, which in he past has often seemed to be criticized for it’s lack of impact (minus Sonny Gray).

But this year, they’ve established themselves as one of the best in baseball. They sit within the top-10 in ERA (ninth at 3.64), FIP (T-seventh at 3.70) and WHIP (ninth at 1.20).

And what’s been even more impressive about this group, Sonny Gray has been the one the rest of the rotation has had to carry, as his 4.50 ERA is the highest among their qualified starters. Their success can be attributed to the rise of Matthew Liberatore (2.92 ERA), as well as the strong veteran performances from that of Miles Mikolas (3.77 ERA) and Erick Fedde (3.44 ERA).

If a multi-time Cy Young finalist arm at a mid-4.00s ERA is your worst rotation piece, it bodes well for strengthening your case for the division.

Then there’s the bullpen, which might be their weakest aspect to their game. However, they sit in the middle-of-the-pack in ERA (14th at 3.83), WHIP (16th at 1.26) and BAA (12th at .231) and with a top-10 FIP they project to be even better than they may seem on the surface.

And at the end of the day, a ‘pen led by Ryan Helsley is usually a means for success.

The Cardinals are more than just a team on a hot streak. Now, whether or not it’s enough to return to the perennial NL Central contender that they were back in 2022 and overtake the Cubs remains to be seen, but through the opening weeks of the season they’ve proven to be a worthy adversary.

Cincinnati Reds

Finally, we have the Reds, a team on the rise and currently just 4.5 games behind the Cubs.

Theirs is an interesting case as they’re a below average offensive team as a whole, with a 94 wRC+, 22nd in the league.

This has largely been due to the absence in performance from some of their brightest stars, as Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer all hold below average wRC+ clips. If your offense is being lead by the traditionally streaky Gavin Lux (115 wRC+) and an average looking TJ Freidl (102 wRC+), that’s not a formula of a team that can hang with an offense like the their division rivals in Chicago.

Then there’s the pitching side of things in the Queen City, which between the rotation and the bullpen has kept the Reds relevant in the divisional hunt.

Their rotation has been very strong. They’re is anchored by their ace in Hunter Greene, who’s been expectedly dominant with a 2.36 ERA through his first eight starts. But then they’ve gotten a series of series of great complementary performances from the majority of the remainder of their staff, as Nick Martinez (3.66 ERA), Nick Lodolo (3.42) and Andrew Abbott (1.80 ERA) are all mid-3.00s ERA arms or lower.

This has resulted in Reds starters sitting in the top half of the league in ERA (12th at 3.71), FIP (10th at 3.72), WHIP (tied for fourth at 1.16) and BAA (eighth at .230).

Then in the bullpen, the Reds have found a way to minimize the damage of Alexis Diaz’s demotion-worthy start to the season. They currently sit top-10 in ERA (ninth at 3.40), WHIP (seventh at 1.18) and BAA (fifth at .204).

It’s been the inspiring efforts from arms like Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan and Taylor Rogers that have carried them through.

If their pitching holds, the Reds could stay in the mix to make things challenging for the Cubs, but with their issues offensively, it could be a challenge to sustain an under five-game deficit.

While It’s Not Impossible, the Cubs Will Not Go Down Without a Fight

While Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cincinnati each present unique and legitimate aspects to their game that make them worthy competitors, it’s difficult not to look at this Cubs star-studded lineup, deeper rotation and (while not flashy) capable bullpen and see them as the clear front-runner.

It’s also important to consider the fact that the Cubs have the easiest strength of remaining schedule in all of baseball, as per Tankathon.

The other important facet to account for is the presence of a strong farm system to utilize in order to go out and make some bold acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline and address some of their “weaknesses” down the stretch.

While it may have been five years since this Cubs team has climbed the NL Central mountain, the stars seem to be aligning on this team being able to do so again in 2025.