Top Notes From the Los Angeles Dodgers ZiPS Projections for 2025
What can the ZiPS projections tell us about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster for the upcoming season?
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2025 season as reigning World Series champions and sit in as good a position as any MLB team ever has to repeat.
After dominant National League Championship Series and World Series performances culminated in their second title in four years, the Dodgers wasted no time retooling their roster in the offseason.
Headlining their acquisitions was a five-year, $182-million deal for two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, the addition of rookie Japanese flamethrower, Roki Sasaki, and left-handed reliever, and likely closer, Tanner Scott.
Outside nabbing three of the most prized free agent pitchers, the Dodgers brought in South Korean utility man Hye-Seong Kim and veteran outfielder Michael Conforto, all while retaining a majority of their core.
Similar to adding a new player, the team also prepares for the highly anticipated mid-May return of Shohei Ohtani to the mound after he spent 2024 exclusively as a designated hitter.
Yes, the Dodgers hold on to an embarrassment of riches heading into 2025, but despite their offseason moves, the organization still faces a few question marks, particularly regarding their rotation and the roles of certain veterans.
As the season approaches, statistical models like ZiPS provide an analytical lens into what fans might expect from the roster. Developed by Dan Szymborski, ZiPS is widely regarded as one of the most reliable projection systems, utilizing past performance and aging trends to forecast player production. Below is a summary from Major League Baseball and how it works:
ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.
“sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com
With the latest ZiPS projections released in December, let’s examine what they say about the Dodgers’ 2025 outlook.
Dodgers ZiPS: Position Players
- ZiPS is skeptical of Michael Conforto but bullish on James Outman – The Dodgers signed Conforto to a one-year deal this offseason, penciling him in as the likely Opening Day starter in left field. However, ZiPS is not particularly high on the former All-Star, projecting him to slash .232/.310/.400 with 18 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.
On the other hand, ZiPS sees a bounce-back year for Outman, who struggled in 2024 after an impressive rookie campaign in 2023. The model projects Outman for a middle ground between his two seasons, predicting 19 home runs and a 2.0 WAR in 517 plate appearances. Whether he can get off to a confident enough start and earns enough playing time to reach those marks remains to be seen, as his spot on the 40-man roster is not guaranteed.
- Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts remain elite – Ohtani’s 2025 projection is nothing short of dazzling. After posting a 3.3 fWAR projection last season, ZiPS now expects him to lead the Dodgers with a 6.9 fWAR while crushing 45 home runs and stealing 42 bases. The average ZiPS projection sees Ohtani slashing an exceptional .290/.379/.593 but 80th percentile projections put his ceiling at .313/.400/.650 with a 190 OPS+. That level of dominance would make him one of baseball’s most valuable offensive forces once again.
Freeman is expected to maintain his steady production at age 35, with ZiPS projecting a .298 average, a 143 OPS+, and a 4.3 fWAR following his World Series MVP performance.
Betts’ projection is slightly tempered, largely due to concerns about his durability. ZiPS pegs him for 130 games, a 5.1 fWAR, and a .381 OBP, while projecting a dip in power with 24 home runs.
- Andy Pages poised for a breakout – Pages, the Dodgers’ expected Opening Day center fielder, is projected to take a significant step forward in 2025. His average projection includes a .247 batting average, a 111 OPS+, 22 home runs, and a 2.7 WAR. Pages crushed lefties in 2024 and ZiPS projects Pages to post a .492 slugging rate against lefties this year, which is the fourth-best mark on the Dodgers. ZiPS’ best-case scenario sees him reaching a 133 OPS+ and a 4.0 WAR, which would be a huge boost for the Dodgers’ outfield.
- Declining expectations for Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández, and Max Muncy – As three of the Dodgers’ most tenured veterans enter their mid-30s, ZiPS projects some regression. Taylor, who posted a negative WAR in 2024, is expected to bounce back slightly with a 1.0 WAR. Hernández is projected for 0.4 WAR, down from 1.3 last year, while Muncy is pegged for a 2.4 WAR across 451 plate appearances, which is a downturn compared to his 2.4 WAR in just 293 PA last season.
Dodgers ZiPS: Pitching Staff
Starting Rotation
- Conservative projections for Ohtani’s return to the mound – While Ohtani is expected to be an offensive force, ZiPS projects a cautious return to pitching with only 100 innings and a 3.77 ERA. Given the rotation’s need for stability, the Dodgers will hope Ohtani can go for more than the model suggests.
- Blake Snell’s projections are modest but promising – Coming off a stellar finish with the Giants, Snell enters his Dodgers tenure with respectable expectations from ZiPS. The model projects him for a 3.38 ERA, an 11.91 K/9 rate, and a 3.1 WAR over 133 innings and 26 starts. While solid, these projections are slightly below other models that expect a sub-3.00 ERA.
- The fifth rotation spot remains uncertain – With Ohtani sidelined until May, the Dodgers will start with a five-man rotation featuring Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sasaki, and Tyler Glasnow. That leaves the final spot up for grabs between Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, both of whom are returning from significant injuries.
ZiPS expects Gonsolin to be the pitcher with more run, projecting him for 17 starts and 81 innings compared to May’s seven starts and 37 innings. On the flip side, ZiPS projects May to post a 3.58 ERA compared to Gonsolin’s 4.33.
Gonsolin, an All-Star in 2022 who finished with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP that season, had a rough 2023 campaign before undergoing elbow surgery, while May has struggled to stay healthy since reaching the big leagues in 2019, despite his electric velocity and filthy break on his pitch mix.
Bullpen
When Ohtani returns to the mound, the Dodgers will have the luxury of a six-man rotation while still maintaining an eight-man bullpen, as Ohtani won’t count toward their 13-pitcher roster limit. That bullpen is projected to be anchored by new closer Tanner Scott, with Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda, Kirby Yates, and one final spot up for grabs.
- Regression concerns for Anthony Banda and Michael Kopech? – Banda’s surprising 2024 campaign saw him post a 3.08 ERA over 49.2 innings, with career-best marks in saves (2) and holds (9), followed by an outstanding 1.13 ERA in 10 postseason outings. However, ZiPS expects some regression, projecting a 4.33 ERA and 94 ERA+ in 60 innings.
Similarly, Kopech was dominant after coming over from the White Sox, recording a 1.13 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 29 Ks in 24 innings while tallying six saves and eight holds without a single blown save. His postseason performance was also strong (3.00 ERA in nine innings), yet ZiPS projects him for a 4.23 ERA and 97 ERA+ in 2025.
- A steady core of reliable arms – The Dodgers will rely on a core group of consistent relievers in Graterol, Treinen, Vesia, and Evan Philips. ZiPS projects all to finish with ERAs between 3.08 and 3.32, though Vesia and Treinen have routinely outperformed projections. Treinen has posted a sub-2.00 ERA over the last three years, while Vesia has stayed under 2.26 in three of the last four seasons.
Meanwhile, Phillips is projected to bounce back with a 3.12 ERA, an improvement from last year’s 3.62 mark, which is notable given that he turns 31 this season. Graterol, currently recovering from injury, is projected to lead the middle relievers with a 3.08 ERA in 51 games once he returns to action.
- Closer expectations for Tanner Scott – Scott enters the season as the Dodgers’ primary closer, projected for a 2.92 ERA, 1.1 WAR, and 25 saves in 68 appearances. While those numbers don’t quite match his stellar production with the Marlins and Padres over the last two seasons, Scott has a history of exceeding expectations, much like Treinen and Vesia.
- Could Jack Dreyer earn a bullpen spot? – Rookie left-hander Jack Dreyer could be a dark-horse candidate to break into the bullpen. ZiPS projects Dreyer to log 52.1 innings with a 4.13 ERA and 0.3 WAR while demonstrating strong strikeout potential (9.12 K/9). If he impresses in camp, if Banda regresses, if Giovanny Gallegos struggles to regain form, if Edgardo Henriquez isn’t ready, or if injuries mount, the Dodgers may find room for him in their eight-man bullpen.
Final Thoughts
The Dodgers enter 2025 as one of the most talented teams in baseball, and ZiPS largely reinforces that notion. Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts remain elite, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman are a second-tier reliable big three, and Pages has breakout potential.
Not to mention, ZiPS projects quality seasons from rookies Dalton Rushing (C/OF) and Alex Freeland (SS), if they can actually find their way on the roster.
ZiPS projects Freeland to contribute a 2.3 WAR, mainly through stellar defense, and Rushing to contribute a 2.5 WAR, mostly through defense as well, while clocking 18 home runs and a .732 OPS. Both players will come up in situations where players are injured or severely struggling, but it’s hard to see them finding their way on the roster and starting enough games.
Also, ZiPS doesn’t have Hye Seong Kim’s projections taken into account.
Still, there is a lack of expectations for young guys, and the Dodgers’ mix of young talent and veteran stars has been a staple of their run in the last decade-plus.
Starting rotation health is chief among the Dodgers’ concerns, but if Snell, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani can combine to give the Dodgers just under 700 innings on the mound, as ZiPS projects, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers don’t win the NL West with relative ease and vie for a repeat title.
A healthy return from Gonsolin and/or May, plus a bounce back from Bobby Miller would all be added bonuses.
Injuries are natural and the Dodgers have dealt with a flurry of them in recent years. As evidenced last year, and looking at their roster construction this year, if any team is equipped to handle and perform through serious injuries, it’s the 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s not shocking to see ZiPS projects the Dodgers as the winningest team in 2025.
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