Why Michael Conforto Will Resurge With the Dodgers in 2025

In case you haven’t heard, the Los Angeles Dodgers made a lot of noise this offseason. After winning a decisive 2024 World Series championship, LA strengthened by adding two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, and high-leverage relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.

The Dodgers’ retainment of Teoscar Hernández on a three-year deal, along with their other high-profile acquisitions, overshadowed another move they made earlier in the offseason. They signed Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million deal.

After missing the 2022 season, Conforto spent two years in San Francisco, where he slashed .238/.322/.418 for a 108 OPS+ in 958 plate appearances.

In Conforto’s two years as a Giant, he took different paths to get relatively similar results. In 2023, he graded out as a league-average hitter with a 100 OPS+ on the dot. The next season, he dropped his OBP by 25 points and rose his SLG by 64 points, netting a 41-point increase in OPS.

But under the surface, Conforto made changes that justified a much larger offensive gain. Changes that could make him another reliable bat in the Dodgers’ murderer’s row. A new organization could be exactly what’s needed for Conforto to reach his full potential.

A Hidden Power Surge

From swing speed to batted ball distribution, Conforto displayed several more traits of a good hitter in 2024.

Bat Speed data on Baseball Savant dates back to the second half of the 2023 season. In that time, Confotro increased his average bat speed from 73.0 mph in July through September of 2023 to 74.1 mph throughout 2024.

While an increase of just 1.1 miles per hour may not seem like much, it helped Conforto hit the ball harder and in better directions.

Statcast categorizes any swing of at least 75 mph as a “fast swing,” and the placement of that threshold is not an accident. Throughout 2024, hitters across the majors hit .285 and slugged .510 on 73-74 mph swings. They hit .306 and slugged .572 on 75-76 mph swings.

That small difference in bat speed represents a 62-point difference in slugging percentage. Conforto upped his fast swing rate from 9.6% in 2023 to 35.2% in 2024, a 26% difference stemming from a one-mile-per-hour increase in average bat speed.

Conforto’s uptick in bat speed paid clear dividends in his other power-based stats. His average exit velocity jumped from 88.9 mph to 90.2 mph between seasons, with 2024 representing his highest since 2016. His 46% hard-hit rate was his personal best since 2015, and his 7.8% barrels/PA was a career high.

Conforto raised his fly ball rate from 27.3% in 2023 to 29.1% in 2024. Not only was he hitting more fly balls, he was crushing them. 22.9% of fly balls hit by Conforto in 2023 were barrels. That 22.9% rate was below the league average of 27%. In 2024, he upped his barrel rate on fly balls to 29.8%.

Conforto also made a crucial and beneficial change to his batted ball direction in 2024. He upped his pull rate on all batted balls from 31.6% in 2023 to 41.5% in 2024. The 9.9% increase in pull rate between 2023 and 2024 was the second steepest increase among the 177 qualifiers.

This increase extended to the balls that he hit in the air. In 2023, Conforto pulled 22.9% of his fly balls. Throughout 2024, fly balls across MLB were 30% more likely to be home runs if they were pulled, compared to being hit straightaway or to the opposite field.

In 2024, Conforto pulled 31.9% of his fly balls, a 9% increase from the previous season. Overall, his pull/barrel rate on fly balls went from 9.6% to 17% over the course of his two years in San Francisco.

Despite these drastic changes under the hood, Conforto only saw a 2.2% increase in his home run rate on fly balls. He only saw a marginal increase after taking the correct steps to see a big surge in offense. The reason for this? There was something working against him: his home ballpark.

Home Away From Home

As a power-hitting left-handed bat, Oracle Park proved to be an unfriendly environment for Conforto, as it tends to be for other hitters of his archetype.

According to Statcast Park Factors, Oracle Park was the second most difficult ballpark to hit home runs in as a lefty. The home of the Giants found itself 27% below the league average on long balls from the left side. Also in 2024, only 32.3% of pulled fly balls hit by lefties at Oracle resulted in home runs, the fifth-lowest of any Major League Baseball stadium last year.

Conforto was a victim of Oracle last year. In fact, he was hurt by his home ballpark more than nearly everyone. He slashed .216/.292/.341 at home and .253/.323/.530 on the road, creating a 200-point discrepancy in OPS within the split.

Personal adjustment stats like tOPS+ indicate Conforto was 30% below his own 2024 standard when hitting at home. His 70 tOPS+ at home was the third lowest among the 201 hitters with at least 200 home plate appearances.

Conforto was not given many breaks when playing at Oracle. Of the 20 home runs he hit throughout last season, only three were hit at Oracle.

He hit 39 fly balls at Oracle, with only two going over the fence. His 5.1% home run rate on fly balls at home was the 19th lowest rate among the 282 hitters with at least 25 fly balls hit at home.

Meanwhile, his 29.1% home run rate on fly balls hit on the road was the 19th highest among the 291 hitters with at least 25 fly balls hit on the road, a complete turnaround from his numbers at home.

When pulling his fly balls, Conforto had a 22.2% home run rate at home and a 57.1% clip on the road, tied for the 23rd highest among the 189 hitters with at least 10 pulled fly balls hit on the road.

Perhaps most egregiously, Conforto only homered on 20% of the fly balls he barreled while playing at home, the second-lowest rate among the 160 hitters with at least 10 barreled fly balls at home in 2024.

His 20% rate was also less than half the league-wide home run rate of 56.6%. On the flip side, he homered on 72.2% of barreled fly balls on the road, tied for the 21st highest rate among the 131 hitters with at least 10 barreled fly balls on the road.

There are two things to take from these discrepancies in the results Conforto got on fly balls in different ballparks. One is that Oracle Park worked against him. The tall wall in right field and long distances in triples alley kept many of his fly balls in the park.

Another is that Conforto could have near-elite home run power in the tank. On the road, Conforto was hitting some of the most efficient fly balls of anyone in the league. In a better ballpark, these numbers could become the norm, and he picked the perfect venue to try and make that happen.

New Ballpark, New Conforto?

Call it a stacked lineup, call it at times shaky starting pitching. No matter what you call it, Dodger Stadium can solve a lot of Conforto’s problems.

According to Statcast Park Factors, Dodger Stadium was tied as the fifth most favorable home run ballpark for left-handed hitters. Conforto will be going from ballpark #29 to ballpark #5 in that category.

Statcast suggests that if Conforto played all his games in Dodger Stadium in 2024, he would’ve hit eight more home runs than if he played every game at Oracle.

In LA, many of the fly balls that found a glove or the warning track in San Francisco could find their way over the fence. If he continues to hit fly balls, barrel them and pull them at the same rates, we could see a major offensive resurgence in 2025.

Conforto will join guys like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy as power-hitting lefties in the Dodgers lineup. Muncy and Ohtani both posted a tOPS+ above 110 at Dodger Stadium in 2024. Muncy has benefited greatly from Chavez Ravine throughout his career. He’s had a tOPS+ above 110 in three of the last four seasons and a tOPS+ above 120 in two of the last four years.

Conforto is an afterthought in the grand scheme of the Dodgers’ 2024-2025 offseason. He’s probably not the first name that comes to mind when people think of the hitters in the Dodgers lineup. But he set himself up to become a crucial name in a lineup full of superstars with the adjustments he made last year and a potentially beneficial new home ballpark.