Could Seth Lugo Become the Top Rental Ace on the Trade Market?

Major League Baseball is getting into the heart of its busiest month, with the MLB Draft and All-Star Game just days away. Along with these major events in the season, the trade market is set to heat up ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.

With tightly contested postseason races in both the American League and National League, there are still plenty of teams in search of a boost down the stretch to strengthen their chances at October baseball.

One of those teams that still finds themselves with a reasonable shot at the postseason is the Kansas City Royals, sitting five games back of the final wild-card spot. That being said, with four teams still sitting between them and the final playoff spot at this point in the season, time might be running out for the Royals to repeat on their postseason fortunes this year.

However, whether that’s case or not, Kansas City is in a unique position where one of their ace-caliber pitchers may be on the market regardless.

Seth Lugo is crafting another season very similar, if not better than his Cy Young-caliber season in 2024, when he pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .227 BAA en route to a Cy Young runner-up finish. This year, he’s throwing to a 2.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .214 BAA through his first 16 starts.

With the Royals four games below .500 and Lugo’s player option for 2026 making his future with the organization uncertain, the opportunity for GM J.J. Picollo and Co. to cash in on their brilliant investment just two offseasons ago might be too tempting to pass up. After all, we are talking about a 35-year-old arm, so the end of his career is definitely on the horizon.

Should that be the case and the Royals make Lugo available at the trade deadline, then he makes a strong case to be the top rental ace on the market.

All stats were taken prior to play on July 8.

Why Seth Lugo is the Top Rental Ace on the Trade Market?

We’ve already gone over Lugo’s impressive stat line this season, but in context of how it looks in the grand scheme of things, it’s even more impressive.

He ranks among the top 20 in baseball in ERA (13th), WHIP (T-16th) and BAA (T-14th). There’s not too many arms, if any, that rank this highly across the board who also happen to be available as a rental option.

In fact, the amount of rental aces that could be available are limited, and if they are available they definitely have some questions surrounding them.

Trade speculation swirled mightily around the Houston Astros’ stars this winter, especially after the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs. This meant impending free agent Framber Valdez was in his fair share of mock trades entering the season.

However, the Astros have jumped out to a 55-36 record and 6.5 games up on the Seattle Mariners for first place in the AL West. So, the likelihood of the Astros leaning into selling off top assets before July 31 looks slim to none. This means that a sub-3.00 ERA arm in Valdez is all but off the board.

Then, there’s Dylan Cease out in San Diego. Amid the team’s financial fiasco and all but cutting payroll, top stars like Cease were seemingly on the Padres’ trade block all winter. However, like Valdez, the Friars are in the thick of their respective league’s postseason race, sitting six games above .500 at 48-42 and just one game back of the final NL wild-card spot.

Even if San Diego were out of the mix, Cease has not been able to replicate his 2024 season where he managed to finish fourth in NL Cy Young voting. Through 18 starts, he’s thrown to just a 4.62 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .245 ERA. It’s not the worst stat line on the planet, but it’s nowhere near the type of numbers an ace should be posting.

Then, in a very similar situation as Cease is Arizona’s Zac Gallen. He led that rotation before the team signed Corbin Burnes in the offseason, and has suddenly been thrusted into that role once again now that Burnes has gone down for the year after requiring Tommy John surgery at the beginning of June.

That being said, the Diamondbacks still sit within 4.5 games of a wild-card spot, so it’s not out of the question that they might still look to compete in 2025 rather than sell off expiring talent.

Like Cease, though, it’s been a down year for Gallen on the mound. Through 18 starts, the near 30-year-old is throwing to an inflated 5.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .246 BAA, making him less desirable than he probably would have been predicted to be back when the 2025 campaign began.

Then there’s the aces who might be available that aren’t rental options.

Sandy Alcantara could be highly sought after, especially as a buy-low candidate amidst a down year on the mound. However, with another year guaranteed and a club option for 2027, the price may still be steeper than that of a top rental arm like Lugo. And with the overall poor results since returning from Tommy John surgery this year, he gives teams a lot more risk than a stellar short-term rental like Lugo.

Then, there’s the far-fetched option, only linked to a deal because of how bad his current squad is in the Pittsburgh Pirates.

This is Paul Skenes, of course, who we won’t dive into whether or not he’ll be dealt because it’s nearly impossible. However, if he were to be available in some wild, alternate universe, the return for him would be unfathomable considering he’s arguably the NL Cy Young frontrunner this season after being a finalist last year in his rookie campaign.

I understand this article is about rental options, and both Alcantara and Skenes both have multiple years of control remaining. The point I’m trying to make here by commenting on them is that rental options seem like the way to go from a value standpoint for a team in need of that elite, ace-caliber boost at a fraction of the cost.

As we’ve established already as well, out of the top “available” ace options, not only does Lugo seem as though he’s available, but the quality has been nothing if not ace level in 2025.

There’s little-to-no questions about Lugo at this point, other than whether or not the Royals will make him available. If they do, though, there’s no denying he has what it takes to be the cream of the crop this trade season.