The Brewers’ Ideal Trade Deadline Targets

What are the Milwaukee Brewers trying to accomplish in 2024? It’s a fascinating question, and the answer has large ramifications on how they approach next week’s MLB trade deadline.

The Brewers have been one of the best teams in the National League to this point in the season. They sit firmly atop the National League Central standings with a six-game lead in the division, and they haven’t surrendered that lead since April 30.

With that said, while it’s been an extremely successful season for the Crew thus far, they need to be active on the trade market if they wish to take the leap into legitimate World Series contention in 2024.

In terms of roster needs, their lineup feels set heading into the final couple months of the season. Additionally, they have enough internal relievers on the mend that will provide a major boost to their already strong bullpen. External additions in these two areas of the roster don’t seem necessary.

Instead, their starting rotation remains a major question mark as we approach the July 30 trade deadline, and it should be the point of emphasis in the coming days. While the rotation has stayed afloat to this point in the season, it’s worth questioning how deep of a postseason run the Brewers can make with their current group of starters.

The Brewers went out and acquired Aaron Civale from the Tampa Bay Rays back at the beginning of July to help bolster their starting rotation, but was that move enough to take them over the hill? If their goal is simply to win the division and make it through the regular season, then perhaps it is.

However, if they wish to make a run at the World Series this season, they need to do more in the coming week to strengthen the top of their rotation.

Stats updated prior to games on July 25.

Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Expectations

If the Brewers are planning to be active ahead of the trade deadline, then there are plenty of names that make sense as potential trade targets that range in both cost and potential impact.

However, it’s important to keep in mind how the Brewers typically go about their business at the trade deadline.

This team strives to find the most value on the market, and the Brewers want to maximize their return without sacrificing much long-term success. It sounds like an obvious way of thinking, but that means they likely won’t overpay for a player in the event of a bidding war.

Instead, they can set their sights on a lesser option who can still contribute but will cost them much less. It’s how they operate from one of the smallest markets in baseball, and it’s a philosophy that has worked for them in recent years.

For example, while a trade for a frontline starter such as Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal would certainly be an enormous addition to the pitching staff, it would cost a great deal of prospect capital to acquire those players, and that’s typically not how the Brewers operate.

While Milwaukee definitely could surprise at this year’s deadline, it’s important to temper expectations.

Nevertheless, it’s key to look for players who can move the needle for the team’s season outlook but also come at a price point the Brewers are comfortable with. Here are a few realistic trade targets that fit that mold.

Brewers Trade Target #1: RHP Jack Flaherty – Detroit Tigers

Headlining the list of realistic trade targets is Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty.

Flaherty is likely to be the most expensive player listed in this piece, but he would be the perfect addition for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The right-hander is going to be in high demand, and his stellar performance this season is going to increase his price a bit. Still, it’s a price that should be palatable for the Brewers, and he would immediately slide in as the No. 2 starter in this rotation.

Flaherty signed a one-year “prove it” deal with the Tigers this offseason after several struggling seasons in St. Louis, and he has enjoyed a tremendous bounce back in 2024. Among qualified starters in the American League, Flaherty ranks eighth in ERA with a 2.95 mark, and his peripheral statistics are equally as impressive

He’s striking out batters at a 32.2% clip, posting a walk rate under five percent, and is generating impressive quality of contract metrics as well. In turn, his underlying metrics have been some of the best in the American League. Specifically, Flaherty is fourth in xERA (2.95); sixth in FIP (3.10); second in xFIP (2.55); and second in SIERA (2.66).

Not only would Flaherty be first among Brewers starters in each of these categories, but he would lead Milwaukee’s starting rotation in WHIP (0.96) and fWAR (2.5) as well.

Flaherty is one of the top arms available on the trade market, and many teams will be inquiring about his services. However, with him being a rental, the Brewers have the farm system to put together a competitive package.

Flaherty should be at the top of Milwaukee’s list of trade targets ahead of next week’s trade deadline.

Brewers Trade Target #2: LHP Yusei Kikuchi – Toronto Blue Jays

Yusei Kikuchi is a tier down from Flaherty in terms of impact on the mound, but that’s not to say he wouldn’t be a valuable addition for the Brewers.

The Blue Jays’ southpaw has the stuff to be a strong middle-of-the-rotation option for Milwaukee down the stretch, and with him set to hit free agency at the end of the season, he could be an affordable trade option for the Brewers.

Kikuchi is pitching to an underwhelming 4.54 ERA across 111 innings of work thus far, but his underlying metrics are far more encouraging than that. He’s walking batters at a 5.9% clip, which is the lowest walk rate of his six-year career.

He’s also striking out batters at the second-highest rate of his career (26.4%), and he’s posting a higher whiff rate (28.3%) and a lower zone contact rate (79%) than last season.

In turn, Kikuchi has an xERA under four, and a FIP (3.58) that is nearly one run better than his ERA. Even further, he has the ninth-best xFIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.40) among qualified American League starters this season.

What’s more, the Brewers are currently without a left-hander in the starting rotation, so bringing a southpaw into the fold would be an added bonus.

Kikuchi will need to improve his quality of contract metrics, however, as he is allowing a barrel rate of 10.1% and a hard-hit rate of 44.3%, which are in the bottom 11 percent of baseball, according to Baseball Savant.

Still, there are aspects to his performance that spark intrigue, and he could provide some real value for the Brewers if they choose to bring him into the mix at the right price.

Brewers Trade Target #3: RHP Erick Fedde – Chicago White Sox

Erick Fedde is a fascinating trade target for several reasons. After struggling mightily with the Washington Nationals in 2021 and ’22, Fedde spent 2023 in the KBO, and he ended up winning the league’s MVP award.

Now, after signing a two-year, $15MM deal with the Chicago White Sox this past offseason, he finds himself in high demand at this year’s MLB trade deadline.

Fedde’s rebound to Major League Baseball has been a fascinating storyline this season. Across 117.2 innings, he is pitching to a 2.98 ERA to go with a 1.11 WHIP and a 2.6 fWAR, which is 10th among qualified American League starters and would be the highest on Milwaukee’s pitching staff.

Fedde has an arsenal that the Brewers generally like to work with. The sinker and cutter make up 60% of his pitch mix, and he features a sweeper as his primary breaking pitch.

He also does all the things on the mound that the Brewers look for in a starter. He is walking batters at an impressive rate (6.6%), and he’s done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average level thus far (45.3%).

As opposed to the previous two names mentioned on this list, Fedde has one more year of team control remaining on his deal at the reasonable rate of $7.5MM. If he can maintain this level of production, that’s a very palatable price for Milwaukee if they choose to keep him for the 2025 season.

Combine his team control with his anticipated high demand, and Fedde could reach a price point that exceeds his value. That said, at the appropriate price, he could be a valuable top-of-the-rotation starter come playoff time for the Brewers.

There is risk in acquiring Fedde to be the second or third starter in a playoff rotation, however. Fedde has never pitched in the MLB postseason, and he has struggled for the vast majority of his MLB career with the exception of this season.

However, he has clearly figured out a formula that works on the mound since returning to Major League Baseball from the KBO. He has a player profile that makes a lot of sense as a potential fit for the Brewers, and his success this season could be worth taking a shot on.

Christian Yelich: His Impact on the Brewers’ Deadline Philosophy

Christian Yelich recently hit the injured list with back issues once again, except this time, things don’t sound quite as optimistic.

There’s a chance Milwaukee’s 32-year-old All-Star misses the remainder of the 2024 season, as season-ending back surgery may be on the table this time around.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Yelich “intends to rest and rehab his back rather than undergo surgery,” but it remains to be seen if that approach will work, especially since Rosenthal notes that surgery in the offseason is still a “strong possibility.”

Yelich has been fantastic for the Brewers this season and has been one of Milwaukee’s most valuable players both on the field and in the clubhouse. Losing his bat in the lineup is a major blow to this offense, and it could have major repercussions on how Milwaukee chooses to approach the upcoming trade deadline.

The injury completely changes what the Brewers have to offer in terms of trade assets. Milwaukee’s outfield depth was thought to be an area they were going to trade from in order to improve other aspects of the roster, but now that may not be the case.

Moreover, how does Yelich’s absence impact how aggressive the Brewers will be at the trade deadline? In all reality, it’s likely to make the organization think twice about pushing the chips in on a blockbuster deal, which was already improbable before Yelich hit the shelf.

While a soft-buy approach is certainly still on the table, it’s worth questioning how willing Matt Arnold and company will be to go for it this season, considering the significance of Yelich’s absence.

Conversely, perhaps Yelich’s injury makes the front office more inclined to go out and add a veteran bat or an extra outfielder in the coming days.

The Brewers already had one of the youngest lineups in all of baseball, and subtracting Yelich sparks even more concern about how much veteran leadership this lineup has come playoff time.

Fortunately for the Brewers, this news broke with a handful of days before the trade deadline. There is still time to make some corresponding moves as they see fit.

More news will come out in the coming days regarding the extent of his injury, but Yelich’s absence is a significant blow for the Brewers and their World Series aspirations.

Brewers Deadline: Final Thoughts

The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves at a fascinating crossroads, as there is so much uncertainty surrounding the degree to which they are ready to compete in 2024.

On the one hand, they have an opportunity to defend their division crown for the first time since 1982 when they were a part of the American League East. They’ve been one of the top teams in the National League all season long, and one big splash on the trade market could put them over the top.

On the other hand, they’ve managed all this success while their young talent is still developing. They’re winning games with a young core of players who are proving their worth at the major league level, all while possessing one of the top farm systems in baseball.

The Brewers have a bright future, so to what extent are they willing to sacrifice that exciting future for short-term success?

There are plenty of unknowns surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers heading into the final weekend before the trade deadline, and that is going to make them one of the more intriguing teams to monitor in the coming days.