There’s a Lack of Starting Pitching at This Year’s Deadline
Multiple teams are in need of starting-pitching upgrades at this year's trade deadline, but there simply aren't enough impact arms available.
The MLB trade deadline that falls on July 31 represents a great opportunity for teams in the playoff hunt to bolster their roster before the Fall Classic. In recent years, deadline starting pitcher acquisitions have led teams to the prize at the end of the road, but in 2025 the market for strong starters is lower than in recent history.
Pitching-starved teams in need of an addition to their pitching staff are going to need to find the diamonds in the rough at this year’s deadline, as there aren’t many ace-calibre arms on the market. Right-hander Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals was poised to be one of the strongest trade chips come the end of July but he recently signed a two-year, $48 million extension to stay with the Royals who are in the midst of an unexpected season-long slump.
The market for starting pitching might be a big more deflated than usual, but there are still some names that could improve competitive pitching staffs as October baseball approaches.
All stats updated prior to games on Tuesday, July 29
Who’s On the Move?
First, let’s focus on the arms that will likely be moved at this year’s deadline. While the best of the best league-wide aren’t going to be shopped this time around, there’s still plenty of talent to be gained and lost through the deadline.
Teams that are out of contention (and have been for a while) will be looking to move on from some arms that are either running out of contract time or underperforming their expectations. These are some starters that will likely be swapped over the next few days.
Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins (0.7 fWAR, 6.66 ERA)
Sandy Alcántara of the Miami Marlins is just over two years removed from a Cy Young Award in 2022 but might be beneficial to a team in need of more innings and he could potentially return to form with a change of scenery. Sporting a 5-9 record to back up a 6.66 ERA over 104 innings in 2025, Alcántara has certainly seen his fair share of struggles. However, he’s underperforming his expected stats quite a bit but isn’t helping his cause with control issues.
Alcántara leads all of baseball in 2025 in E-F (ERA – FIP), a statistic measuring a pitcher’s rate of surrendering earned runs (ERA) in context to their rate of doing so without the intervention of potential defensive blunders (FIP). His 2.19 E-F is by far the biggest gap in the league between a pitcher’s ERA and FIP, as his expected stats say Alcántara should be a 4.99 ERA and 4.41 FIP pitcher this season, whereas his 6.66 ERA and 4.47 FIP might give one a different impression.
Either way, Alcántara has not been particularly successful in 2025, but there are numerous teams in the hunt for the playoffs who could serve to benefit from his services. His 97.3 MPH fastball still ranks in the top 10% of the league, and Miami fans saw a vintage Sandy outing in what might have been his last outing as a Marlin, as he tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball with no walks against the San Diego Padres on July 23.
He’s got one more season left on his contract, so whatever team is able to land Sandy will have another year to help him turn his fortunes around.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (0.1 fWAR, 5.60 ERA)
While Zac Gallen may not be enjoying his most successful season in a Diamondbacks uniform, he is definitely a pitcher that could turn his fortunes around on more of a contending team. Spearheading Arizona’s NL pennant-winning team in 2023 as the ace of the staff, Gallen has proven his ability to lead a team and shut down his opponents.
Gallen has a 5.60 ERA across 22 starts and 127 innings while leading all of MLB in losses with 12. The 2025 season has been one to forget for Gallen and the Diamondbacks, who are one of the league’s biggest sellers at this year’s deadline. Third baseman Eugenio Suárez is the best hitter on the market this year and leads the league in RBI with 87, and considering how Arizona has already dealt Josh Naylor out of town, they’re going to be big-time sellers.
Gallen has looked like a completely different pitcher this year compared to every other year of his career, but he’s been going deep into games consistently. His price tag won’t be as high as it would’ve been prior to 2025, but Arizona could definitely get a good return for an arm like Gallen’s.
The Diamondbacks are under .500 heading into the trade deadline, so they’re likely to move on from him. Gallen is an unrestricted free agent following the end of the 2025 season, so Arizona will be looking to at least get something in exchange for Gallen’s contract ending, as they look to be missing the Fall Classic this time around.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.6 fWAR, 3.69 ERA)
Mitch Keller is undoubtedly one of the most likely arms to be moved at this year’s trade deadline, as his Pittsburgh Pirates are out of playoff contention for yet another season. Keller has quietly had a very strong season in Pittsburgh in spite of the team’s poor performance.
Like his teammate Paul Skenes, wins have been hard to come by in Keller’s starts because of a lack of offensive support from his Pirates’ teammates. His 4-10 record in 2025 is certainly not befitting of Keller’s performance this season, and his four-seam fastball is tied for the 13th-most valuable fastball according to Run Value this season with a +10 RV.
Keller’s strikeout stuff has been on the decline year after year, and his 2025 strikeout rate sits at 18.8%, or just 7.1 K/9. He ranks in the 11th percentile of the league in Whiff rate with only 19.5% of his pitches resulting in swings and misses. In any other recent seasons, Mitch Keller might have been considered ‘ace’ quality for a team at the deadline, but this year he’s been more of a ‘solid’ starter than one to be considered the ace of a staff.
He’s locked up through the 2028 season, so he could bring several years’ worth of improvement to a franchise and could build up into that ‘ace’ potential that he has previously been touted to hold. His trade value will only grow the more he continues to overperform for an underperforming Pirates team, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him swapped for a prospect haul at the deadline this year.
The Best Arms Are Not Available
As mentioned earlier, Seth Lugo was one of the most prominent starters on the market this year but re-signed in Kansas City and is now off the table. He’s just one of the arms that many teams would like to add to their rotations but simply won’t be able to, at least at this year’s trade deadline.
These pitchers are ace-calibre guys that can, and have been, leading their respective pitching staffs very well already this season. Their teams may be out of contention or middling around the .500 mark, but they won’t be going anywhere come July 31.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals (2.8 fWAR, 3.52 ERA)
MacKenzie Gore was an All-Star earlier this season and has been among the league’s top strikeout pitchers so far in 2025. His Nationals sit at the bottom of the NL East division which might make one assume Gore will be on the market, but it’s highly unlikely that Washington moves on from their young left-hander.
Gore came over to the Nats in the trade that sent superstar Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres in 2022 and ever since he’s pitched in a Nationals uniform he’s been impressive. In 2025, he’s sporting a 4-10 record to go with a 3.52 ERA and 144 strikeouts to go with 44 walks in 117.2 IP. He was even the first pitcher to record 100 strikeouts this season, with a 11.01 K/9 through 21 starts.
Gore’s curveball, slider, and cutter have a combined opposing batting average of .181 and his strikeout rate of 29.4% sits in the top 9% of MLB pitchers in 2025. He has arbitration eligibility for the next two seasons, so Washington doesn’t necessarily feel the need to trade him as he could be valuable to the team’s success for a few more seasons.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (2.9 fWAR, 2.82 ERA)
Joe Ryan has been the undisputed ace of the Twins’ pitching staff this season and has pitched to the tune of a 2.82 ERA across 21 starts with an unbelievably strong 137/24 K/BB ratio. His Twins sit under .500 and fourth in the AL Central division and have already begun selling parts of their rotation by sending right-hander Chris Paddack to the Tigers earlier this week.
The difference between Ryan and Paddack, however, is that Paddack was in his contract year and had been overperforming his value mightily this season. Ryan is under control with the Twins for two more years after 2025 and has been one of the league’s top arms for 4 straight seasons now.
If the Twins do decide to move on from Ryan, it will have to be for a premium price, but it’s highly unlikely. He has very high trade value, but whether Minnesota will choose to part ways with him this season or hold on for better years in the future is up in the air.
The Twins were predicted to barely get edged out by the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, they’ve had a massive setback in 2025. They’ve had several of their top players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Bailey Ober underperform expectations but Ryan has remained their strongest arm.
While the Twins could potentially move on from Ryan this season, his trade value can only improve as he continues to pitch well until his contract ends. If Minnesota really believes in their current core, which looks strong and competitive on paper, then they’ll benefit from holding onto Ryan for at least one more year.
This year’s deadline is still going to be very eventful in spite of the lack of strong starting pitchers being available, and it’ll be interesting to see what direction certain teams choose to take as the season comes to a close soon.
This isn’t meant to be a fully comprehensive explanation of what each team will or won’t do come the trade deadline, but it’s likely that the strongest starter options will not be moved this year. Many teams’ fates still hang in the balance and they might be more competitive next season than in 2025.
Whatever ends up happening, this is primed to be a fun deadline to watch and the playoff picture is still very much unclear. Who knows what could change in a week, month, or even two months? That’s the beauty of the trade deadline, folks.
Written by
Ethan has been writing for Jays Journal, a site on the Fansided network, since 2023 and is fascinated by how sabermetric statistics can assist our understanding…