The Arizona Diamondbacks Are Being Slept On

I find myself asking “why?” a whole heck of a lot more these days. Of course, I immediately answer my own question each time by remembering literally nothing matters. Nothing makes sense, just do whatever, have fun (or not).

But even still, I’ll find myself befuddled ever so slightly by some new story, fact, or incident. It’s like our brains are obsessed with never being prepared for anything; the flat circle of time is too advanced of a concept to understand. 

I’m not sure anything I just said makes sense — my particular brain, it seems, is obsessed with sounding like Rust Cohle — which can also be said for how early projections seem to be valuing this Arizona Diamondbacks team: nonsensical. 

For starters, our friends at BetMGM have the Diamondbacks over/under win total at 85.5, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA simulation gizmo — which, in fairness, I’m convinced is only a thing because people get bored in the offseason — projects them for 87 wins.

That feels…exceptionally low for a multitude of reasons that could be summarized with any variation of Don’t Know Ball verbiage. But this is an article, which requires more than three paragraphs, so we’re going to break it down. 

Did Nobody Watch the Diamondbacks Last Season?

Despite a pitching staff that was nuclearly (if we’re going to make up reasons for being down on this team, I get to make up words) bombarded with injuries and a Corbin Carroll sophomore slump, the Diamondbacks still managed to win 89 games in 2024. Plus, they’re only a year removed from a World Series appearance. 

That run of theirs was not a fluke, and while it’s true that baseball often features one-hit-wonder seasons — which will, unfortunately, be used as a safeguard for owners to resist spending and serve as fodder for pundits to claim the sport isn’t all about money (it is!) — the Diamondbacks have kept their core intact. 

Ketel Marte has always been good, he just needed to stay healthy, which he showcased in 2024 to the tune of a 6.3 fWAR and a third-place MVP finish. Zac Gallen is a demonslayer. Eugenio Suárez has quietly put up more than 3.0 fWAR each of the last three seasons. Gabriel Moreno is one of the most talented young catchers in the game.

And Carroll, bless his soul, amended his first-half struggles by ripping a 147 wRC+ in the second half, and his upside is so great that he could conceivably make up for much of the potential regression by some of the other players in Arizona’s lineup. 

Again, with all of that and more, the deep state wants you to think that 85.5 wins makes sense. Resist.

All They Did This Offseason Was Get Better

Usually, a team making a massive free agency move garners plenty of hype and momentum. Evidently, that isn’t true for the Snakes, despite their acquisition of Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes being the biggest shock of the offseason.

Sure, there may be some trepidation amongst D-backs fans considering they haven’t done well with big-name pitchers of late (e.g. Madison Bumgarner), but Burnes is only going to bolster an already steady crop of arms. 

Another thing that’s just as important as adding is making up for losses you may see in free agency (that’s…basically the same thing, but stick with me).

After losing Christian Walker to the Astros, Arizona traded for Josh Naylor to fill the void. While not quite as good as Walker, especially defensively, Naylor is younger, exudes more aura, and has an offensive skill set that doesn’t trail far behind. 

And as a little treat, the D-backs even brought back Randal Grichuk — with his 139 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 2024 —  on a measly one-year, $5 million deal. It could possibly be the biggest steal of the offseason. 

Arizona’s Remarkable Depth

Perhaps the endless Bruce Wayne-spending of the Dodgers has thrown off folks’ sense of reality, but just because you don’t have an Avengers lineup, doesn’t mean you lack depth. 

On top of Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jake McCarthy (a sneaky 3.0 fWAR) player, they’ve got some decent young options in Pavin Smith — who’s flashed upside before — and Alek Thomas behind them. Tack on the Grichuk signing, and you’ve got one of the deepest outfields in the National League. 

That’s what I love about this Diamondbacks team; they have options, even in the case of shortstop with both Geraldo Perdomo and prospect Jordan Lawlar as a sort of lottery ticket.

And with the return of Merrill Kelly, a (hopefully) full workload from Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, and after the quietly good 2024 seasons of Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, the rotation should be good in the long run, too. 

An Abundance of Redemption Arcs

Speaking of Montgomery, I think his potential value is being overlooked. He’s not an ace, of course, but he’s a steady starter that, due to the Diamondbacks’ depth, they don’t need much from.

Am I just supposed to believe a pitcher who posted a 3.48 ERA in 94 starts from 2021-23 just sucks now? He’s just Patrick Corbin all of a sudden? 

I’m willing to believe that Montgomery can at least be decent, perhaps experiencing something similar to the bounceback Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón had in 2024. Then, of course, there’s Rodriguez, Pfaadt, and Kelly who fit the classic parameters of being bounce-back candidates in the sense that they simply didn’t pitch much in 2024 (240.2 IP combined). 

And seriously, I can’t emphasize enough how much of an impact Carroll could have when he’s in the right state. You may forget, but the north doesn’t forget it wasn’t too long ago we were having debates between him and Julio Rodríguez. 

Are There…Any Weaknesses? 

It’s fair to assume, with all the details outlined thus far, that this team must have a weakness. If Galactus, a being that literally destroys planets, has weaknesses, then this Diamondbacks squad is sure to have one. 

While it isn’t one of galactic proportions, it is a salient one nonetheless: the bullpen. Arizona’s pen was 25th among teams (4.41 ERA) in 2024, and they haven’t made many additions during the offseason thus far. It’s…a bit odd, to say the least. 

But with all the other positives going for this team, I’m more than happy to believe their relievers – a notoriously volatile position group – can see a necessary enough shift in production. It’s a lot better than believing in the Seattle Mariners getting an MVP season out of Julio Rodríguez since ownership refuses — presumably because they’re buying Lakers stock following the Luka Dončić trade or whatever — to make an investment in their offense. 

The Diamondbacks may not be the best team in baseball, but they aren’t a house of cards like many others — including their division rival Padres and Giants (the Dodgers, of course, are fine #GoodForTheGame) — where some Herculean lifting, and perhaps praying, is needed.