Top Notes From the Diamondbacks ZiPS Projections for 2025

After a Cinderella run to the World Series in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks entered 2024 looking to build on that impressive season. And while the team didn’t exactly perform poorly compared to most other MLB teams, they never got that chance to get back to the championship series.

The Diamondbacks greatly improved their run differential up to +98, fourth-best in the NL, had the best offense in all of MLB at 5.47 runs per game, and finished with an 89-73 record, their best since 2017.

Unfortunately, two other teams finished with that same record: the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, tying all three for the final two Wild Card spots. Arizona ultimately lost the tiebreaker and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

The Diamondbacks lost two main pieces of their 2024 team in Christian Walker and Joc Pederson but also added two big ones in Josh Naylor and Corbin Burnes. The question, after an offseason of changes, is how this all projects for 2025.

That’s where ZiPS comes in. The ZiPS player projection model was created by Dan Szymborski over at FanGraphs and has been one of the top baseball projection systems over the years. Here we’ll take a look at his projections for the Diamondbacks and highlight some observations on what is projected to be in store for the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks ZiPS: Position Players

When the ZiPS projections came out in November, DH looked to be about the only potential weak spot in the lineup for Arizona. But with Naylor slotting in at first base and Pavin Smith shifting to DH, the Diamondbacks appear as though they will have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league yet again.

• ZiPS is playing it safe in regards to a Corbin Carroll bounceback – After briefly introducing himself to the world in 2022, Carroll powered his way to a 5.4 fWAR and the NL Rookie of the Year award the following season. While he was by no means “bad” in 2024, a slow start caused most of his numbers to drop year over year, including his fWAR down to 4.0.
  
  ZiPS likes Carroll to regain some form, but projects him closer to 2024 than 2023 with a 4.3 fWAR. That said, it has him with a bigger jump in wRC+ at 120, which puts him almost exactly halfway between where he finished in 2023 (132) versus 2024 (107). Either way, the Diamondbacks will gladly welcome any version of Carroll that’s closer to his ROY campaign.

• ZiPS is more bullish, though, on Gabriel Moreno – Since being acquired via trade from the Blue Jays just over two years ago, Moreno has been everything Arizona could hope for on the defensive end with a whopping 30 DRS over the last two seasons and a Gold Glove in 2023. He’s been solid on offense too with a .741 OPS and 104 wRC+.
  
  ZiPS thinks Moreno will bring even more value on offense in 2025. It projects him to set or tie career highs in on base percentage (.358), slugging percentage (.409), wRC+ (114), and fWAR (3.5). About to hit his age 25 season, he is just hitting his prime so this makes some sense, but that’s still a leap that Arizona fans would just love.

• There will be some production lost at first base – After eight seasons with Arizona and a free agent for the first time, first baseman Christian Walker has taken his talents east down I-10 to the Houston Astros. To replace him, at least for the upcoming season, the Diamondbacks traded for Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians.
  
  Both players provide middle of the order offensive production, but ZiPS gives the edge to Walker in 2025 with the new Astro expected to outproduce in homers, runs scored, slugging percentage, and wRC+. The Diamondbacks also see a three-time Gold Glover get replaced by a player who has been closer to average by advanced defensive metrics. As good as Naylor is, the loss of Walker might be noticed at times this season.

• Jordan Lawlar steps forward and contributes more in 2025 – After blazing his way through the Diamondbacks system, infielder Jordan Lawlar, the sixth overall pick in 2021, got his first introduction to The Show in 2024. He played in 14 games, collecting four hits in 31 at bats.
  
  ZiPS expects that Lawlar will see the field quite a bit more for Arizona in his age 21 season. He’s projected for 92 games with an 81 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR, factoring into the equation at both shortstop and third base. Incumbent third baseman Eugenio Suarez becomes a free agent in 2026, so now is as good a time as any to get Lawlar more acclimated to the majors.

Diamondbacks ZiPS: Pitching Staff

While the Diamondbacks offense was extremely potent in 2024, the same couldn’t same for the pitching staff, which finished with the fourth highest ERA in baseball at 4.62. Arizona made one huge move to address that problem, but has other reasons why the unit might be improved as well.

• The bullpen is expected to be much better – Pitching struggled across the board for Arizona in 2024, which included a relief corps that was 25th in MLB with a combined 4.41 ERA and 22nd with a 2.3 fWAR as a unit. But even though few major changes were made to the bullpen, improvement is expected in 2025.
  
  ZiPS projects a combined bullpen fWAR of 4.8 for the upcoming season, which would’ve placed 9th in MLB last year. Full seasons from 2024 trade deadline pickup A.J. Puk and offseason waiver claim Seth Martinez in combination with improvement from bullpen holdovers from last year makes this seem like a real possibility, assuming the unit can stay healthy, of course.

• Burnes should bring exactly the punch the rotation needs – After having a unit that was at least closer to middling two years ago, the Diamondbacks rotation took a step back in 2024 with a 4.79 ERA that was fourth worst in MLB. So what do you do to improve things? Well, apparently if you’re Arizona you sign one of the best starters in all of baseball in Corbin Burnes.
  
  A four-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner, ZiPS has Burnes going 14-7 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .223 batting average against, and 3.8 fWAR. That fWAR is over a full run more than ZiPS projects for any other starter in the Diamondbacks rotation. Though who knows, with Burnes setting the bar higher, perhaps others follow suit. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

• Jordan Montgomery is expected to improve, but not as much as fans might hope – Fresh off a World Series title with the Rangers and a new deal with the Diamondbacks, starter Jordan Montgomery was riding high coming into 2024. That good feeling didn’t last long, though, as he struggled mightily to a 6.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .307 batting average against, and 0.6 fWAR in 117 innings.
  
  The good news: ZiPS has Montgomery bouncing back a full run win in fWAR in 2025, improving to a 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .259 average against. While that’s better than last year, it’s probably not what fans expect out of a player making $22.5 million this year and also probably why some think the Diamondbacks could explore moving the veteran before Opening Day.

• Who the heck will close games for the Diamondbacks? – In 2024, 10 different pitchers collected at least one save for the Diamondbacks. The staff was led by Paul Sewald, who had 16 and signed with the Guardians in free agency after the season. No other Arizona pitcher had more than eight saves.
  
  The Diamondbacks didn’t bring in anyone new to take over the closer’s role, so it’ll be up to internal options to get the job done. ZiPS predicts that two pitchers will share that job: Puk and Justin Martinez. Arizona could also hit up the free agent market for a more experienced closer like Kyle Finnegan if they want to. Either way, it’s hard to know who will get the ball the first time they need to protect a close lead in the ninth.

Final Thoughts

Of course it’s going to be disappointing when a team that expects to make the playoffs ends up falling just short. But the Diamondbacks had a good team in 2024, and with the main core largely returning in 2025, huge tweaks to the roster weren’t entirely necessary.

Arizona filled the major hole that was created on offense due to free agency and made select changes both big and small to a pitching staff that needed it. Add that all together and it’s no surprise that they’re projected to be plenty formidable again this season.

The biggest hurdle for the Diamondbacks will be the fact that they play in arguably the most brutal division in baseball in the NL West. Will this slightly reconfigured roster be enough to keep pace with their division mates? That’s up to the actual baseball games to answer.