Corbin Carroll Can Dominate for the D-backs Again in 2025
After an up-and-down 2024 season, Carroll will strive to return to greatness in 2025.

The 2023 season was full of memorable moments for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The club snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, with an 84-78 record. They’d eventually go on to play in the World Series, but would unfortunately lose the series to the Texas Rangers.
However, the team’s success wasn’t the only key takeaway from the 2023 season. Their rookie outfielder, Corbin Carroll, was one of the best players in baseball. He played a pivotal role in the team’s success throughout the year and was one of the most important parts of their World Series run.
Fast forward a year later, and Carroll’s offensive production took a huge hit. Carroll went from being one of the best players in the league to not even being the best hitter on his own team.
What happened? Is a comeback possible for Carroll? The answer is yes, but first, we need to establish what went wrong last season.
Carroll’s 2024 Season: What Went Wrong?
Overall, the 2024 season was a significant step back for Corbin Carroll.
The 23-year-old speedster played in 158 games, and his offensive struggles were evident. He hit 22 homers, stole 35 bases, and posted a 10.7% walk rate and 19.0% strikeout rate while slashing .231/.322/.428 with a 107 wRC+.
On the surface, these numbers aren’t terrible. Carroll still managed to post a four-win season, as well as an above-average wRC+. So, what’s the big deal?
Well, when comparing these numbers to his 2023 Rookie of the Year season, you can see the massive step back Carroll took:
Stat | 2023 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
AVG | .285 | .231 |
OBP | .362 | .322 |
SLG | .506 | .428 |
wRC+ | 132 | 107 |
When looking at how his 2023 and 2024 seasons compare, the difference is jarring. His AVG, SLG, OBP, and wRC+ all dropped by at least 25 points. The biggest drop-off was to his SLG, which saw a 78-point decrease from the year prior.
The further you dive into the numbers, the more Carroll’s struggles show.
His quality of contact took a significant hit, which was likely a big reason for his struggles. For starters, Carroll has never really barreled the ball too well, posting a 7.6% barrel rate in 2023. But, in 2024, that number worsened ever so slightly, dropping from 7.6% to 7.2%.
Alongside his barrel rate seeing a slight change, Carroll’s worsening quality of contact was seen inside his exit velocity numbers. For example, his max exit velocity dropped from 113.8 MPH to 111.5 MPH. This wasn’t the only exit velocity related change, as his average exit velocity also dropped slightly.
Carroll’s launch angle sweet spot percentage also dropped from 32.7% to 27.8% in 2024.
While this may not seem like a massive difference, it’s certainly significant enough to have impacted his offensive game.
Another key piece of his decline was his struggles against four-seam fastballs.
In both 2023 and 2024, four-seamers were the pitch Carroll saw the most. What’s different between these two seasons? Carroll hit four-seamers exceptionally well in 2023 and suddenly struggled more against them than any other pitch in 2024.
In 2024, Carroll hit just .196 against four-seamers, posting an xwOBA of .352 against them. This came alongside a decline in his xSLG, which dropped to .413. All that was good for a -6 run value, the worst mark Carroll has posted against any pitch in his MLB career.
When you look back to the year prior, the difference is clear.
Carroll hit .305 against fastballs, posting a .413 xwOBA, a .538 xSLG, and a run value of 12 against them.
So, what caused this sudden difference?
When Carroll was at the peak of his struggles, the baseball world was reminded of his history of shoulder injuries. Most notably, Carroll missed almost all of 2021 recovering from shoulder surgery, and he tweaked his shoulder a few times during the 2023 season.
While many speculated that this could be part of the problem, Carroll’s shoulder likely wasn’t the issue.
Carroll hadn’t missed any time due to his shoulder injury since the middle of 2023, and with a full offseason to recover, it’s likely his shoulder was a lot healthier. Considering the other areas Carroll has struggled in as well, it’s far more likely that they were a bigger factor.
After seeing Carroll’s sudden drop-off, and armed with the knowledge that it wasn’t related to his shoulder injury, our Aram Leighton made a key observation about his swing in a deep dive last May.
Aram noticed that Carroll’s lower half was working out of sync with his upper half. This type of disconnection is detrimental to any hitter and could help explain his struggles against fastballs.

As you can see in the video, Carroll’s stride was far longer in 2024, which ended up allowing for the collapse of his backside. Aram pointed out that Carroll’s front foot was coming off the ground before his barrel even got into the zone, which was concerning.
Aram also pointed out the stark difference in Carroll’s back knee, hand position, and the weight shift that occurred due to the longer stride.
Seeing these points Aram made, it’s easy to understand how this could’ve contributed to Carroll’s struggles. However, as the season progressed, his swing gradually returned to its 2023 form in the second half.

As you can see in the short clip above, Carroll does a much better job controlling his stride, not letting his foot come up, and not letting his front side collapse. This is a huge difference from the video Aram pulled from Carroll’s first half.
His improvements were very noticeable in his numbers. For example, his wRC+ in the first half was just 79, compared to his 147 wRC+ in the second half. Carroll also hit 17 of his 22 homers in this same span – despite playing 30 fewer games in the second half.
Overall, Carroll’s 2024 season was full of highs and lows that were ultimately determined by differences in his swing. Fortunately, with him addressing these issues late in the year, I’m optimistic for his 2025 season.
Why Corbin Carroll Will Return to Greatness
Knowing what we know about Carroll’s second-half resurgence, I truly believe Carroll will return to the player he once was.
To do this, Carroll must continue refining his swing to ensure it doesn’t regress again. During his struggles, he was more than 20% below league average offensively. When his swing was in order, he became nearly 50% better than the league average.
The second key to success for Carroll in 2025 will be his ability to hit four-seam fastballs.
If Carroll can return to dominating this pitch, his offensive game will transform once again. Since he sees more four-seam fastballs than any other pitch, his success against them will be critical.
Due to Carroll’s struggles, he also saw nearly 4% more fastballs in 2024 than he did in 2023. Another product of his struggles against the pitch will likely be pitchers attacking him with more heaters early on, so his success against them will become even more important.
It would be nice to see Carroll improve his quality of contract, but it was never a focal point of his game during his rookie season, so he’s proven he can have success without hitting the ball incredibly hard. Though, if he returns to being the good fastball hitter he once was, the odds this improves with time are very high.
All things considered, I think Carroll has set himself up really well to succeed this season. If the Diamondbacks want a shot to return to being World Series contenders, they’ll need to heavily rely on Corbin Carroll’s resurgence.