Patrick Corbin and the Marlins Are a Perfect Match

The Miami Marlins will have to play 162 games in 2025. Patrick Corbin can start 32 of them. It's a perfect fit.

Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals pitches to the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Nationals Park.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Patrick Corbin #46 of the Washington Nationals pitches to the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Nationals Park on September 26, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

Chances are you don’t know me, dear reader. In all likelihood, I don’t know you either. Still, I know at least one thing about you: Patrick Corbin isn’t a name you’ve thought about much this offseason.

The nine-figure contract Corbin signed with the Nationals in December 2018 finally expired this fall. While he was one of the highest-paid pitchers in baseball for the past six years, the 35-year-old hit free agency to little fanfare.

No one in the media included the southpaw on their top 25, top 50, or even top 100 free agents lists. I can’t claim I’ve read every such list in existence, but if you can find me one that features Corbin, I’ll get a life-size tattoo of his face – with the exact expression he’s making in the image above – on my back.

It’s not just analysts who’ve been ignoring Corbin. Since the offseason began, not a single credible report has linked him to any interested teams. The most recent article under his MLB Trade Rumors player tag is from last July.

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The fish just aren’t biting. But what if the Fish should be?

The Marlins Are a Perfect Landing Spot for Patrick Corbin

The Miami Marlins might be are the most uninteresting team in the league right now.

At least the White Sox have the intrigue of trying to bounce back from a historically bad season. The Marlins were just conventionally bad in 2024. Moreover, the South Siders had a true star player to trade this winter. Garrett Crochet drummed up a lot more buzz than Jesús Luzardo or Jake Burger.

On top of that, the White Sox have already made several free agent signings, trivial as they may be. Chicago has guaranteed $13.25 million to five different players, most notably Martín Pérez and Josh Rojas. The Marlins haven’t given out a single major league deal.

Alright, so what’s the connection here, besides the fact that the Marlins are the only team that can match Corbin’s boring freak?

For one thing, there is reason to believe the Marlins will eventually drop a bit of cash in free agency. They have to increase their luxury tax payroll by about $20 million to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

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More specifically, POBO Peter Bendix should be targeting starting pitchers. Craig Mish recently reported that the Marlins are “evaluating” free agent starters to potentially replace Braxton Garrett, who will miss the 2025 season after undergoing UCL surgery.

Twenty different pitchers started a game for the Marlins last season, more than any other team. Only one of those pitchers surpassed 100 innings pitched, and only one (a different one) surpassed 1.0 FanGraphs WAR. Nine Marlins starters spent time on the IL.

This club learned a tough lesson about the value of pitching depth in 2024. Yet, they’ve done next to nothing to improve their starting pitching reserves for 2025.

Trevor Rogers, who led the team in innings last season, is no longer a Marlin. Neither is Luzardo or Roddery Muñoz. Indeed, the pitchers responsible for 94 of Miami’s 162 starts in 2024 are gone from the organization. If you add Garrett and his seven outings last year to that total, the Marlins have lost the pitchers responsible for more than 100 starts.

Marlins Starters in 2024

PitcherStartsIPERAfWARStill a Marlin?
Trevor Rogers21105.14.530.9No
Edward Cabrera2096.14.950.6Yes
Roddery Muñoz1778.26.64-1.6No
Ryan Weathers1686.23.631.1Yes
Valente Bellozo1368.23.67-0.1Yes
Jesús Luzardo1266.25.000.7No
Max Meyer1157.05.68-0.3Yes
Adam Oller842.15.310.0No
Sixto Sánchez728.16.040.2No
Braxton Garrett737.05.350.6Yes (IL)
Kyle Tyler729.25.460.0No
Yonny Chirinos630.06.30-0.2No
Darren McCaughan521.15.910.0No
A.J. Puk413.29.22-0.1No
Shaun Anderson25.115.190.1No
Bryan Hoeing26.07.500.0No
Jonathan Bermúdez12.013.50-0.2No
Xzavion Curry15.01.800.0Yes
Anthony Maldonado13.00.000.1No
Austin Kitchen12.027.00-0.1No
2024 stats as starting pitcher for the Marlins, via FanGraphs

The Fish will hope to get full, healthy seasons out of Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera, and Max Meyer in 2025. Eury Pérez could return at some point in the summer. If nothing else, the Marlins can’t possibly have worse injury luck this season than they did the year before.

Still, this team desperately needs innings.

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Patrick Corbin – or should I say, Patrick Corb-innings – could be the answer.

Despite all his struggles with the Nationals, Corbin has been remarkably durable through the years. He has made at least 31 starts in each of the past four seasons. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in almost a decade. Dating back to 2017, no MLB pitcher has started more games.

If all you need is someone to take the ball every five days all year long, Corbin is your guy. And that’s exactly what the Marlins need.

Another similarly durable arm available in free agency is Kyle Gibson. He, too, could be a target for Miami. However, he is two years older than Corbin. As consistent as Gibson has been throughout his career, he is at an age (37) at which a sudden and steep decline will always be a worrisome possibility.

Thus, if I had to bet on one of those two pitchers to make 30 starts in 2025 – regardless of the quality of those outings – my money would be on Corbin.

Sure, Gibson is a more talented pitcher. But the Marlins don’t need upside. They need someone they can count on to pitch no matter what.

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Many rebuilding clubs target higher-upside free agents on one-year deals in hopes of trading them ahead of the deadline. If that were the Marlins’ plan, they could probably command a slightly better lottery ticket by trading a player like Gibson rather than Corbin.

Yet, I don’t think the Marlins should acquire an innings eater with the goal of trading him in the summer. The Marlins need an innings eater to eat innings for them all season long. After all, they still have to play the games after the deadline.

In addition, it’s worth keeping in mind that Gibson will surely command a higher salary than Corbin. Over the last five years, Gibson and Corbin have pitched an equal number of games, but the former’s fWAR (9.1) is nearly twice as high as the latter’s (4.7). Gibson’s ERA in that span (4.51) is more than a full run lower than Corbin’s (5.62).

Gibson could be looking at a deal similar to those Charlie Morton (one year, $15M) and Tomoyuki Sugano (one year, $13M) signed with the Orioles. Meanwhile, Corbin is probably looking at something more like the one-year, $5 million contract Martín Pérez signed with the White Sox.

If the Marlins are looking to spend at least $20 million this winter, they could afford to sign either pitcher. However, signing Gibson would require a much larger percentage of that budget.

If Bendix goes after Corbin instead, he could still add a few more pieces with the rest of that $20ish million. Perhaps Harrison Bader to play center field and a veteran reliever to bolster the bullpen? That would fill a couple more of the obvious holes in Miami, and those guys could be rental chips at the deadline.

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At the point in his career, Patrick Corbin can only offer one thing: He can pitch a full season. As for the Marlins, there’s only one thing we know for certain: As bad as things get, they still have to play all 162 games.

It’s a perfect match.