What the Josh Naylor Trade Means for Both Sides

A couple of teams that have been surrounded by trade rumors this winter did some business with each other on Saturday evening in a deal that alters the future for both sides.

All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor is desert-bound as the Cleveland Guardians traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed starter Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in this year’s MLB Draft, both teams announced.

Naylor had been one of the veteran names on the Guardians floated in trade discussions after the great year he had in 2024, as well as having just one remaining year of control left.

On the other side of things, after a rough year at the MLB level, Cecconi joins the starting mix to fill out a rotation in Cleveland which, due to a combination of bad injury luck and poor execution, was one of the worst staff in all of baseball last season.

But this deal marks more than simply a transaction of a couple of names and a pick, this deal symbolizes the embracing of new eras for each franchise.

The First Base Torch in Arizona is Passed On Once Again

Naylor Has a Big Shoes to Fill

Christian Walker took over the first base role for Arizona in 2019, after the departure of then six-time All-Star Paul Goldschmidt when he signed with the St. Louis Cardinals that offseason.

Walker not only held his own at first for the D-Backs, where he won three Gold Gloves, but he also created his own legacy with the franchise. Walker posted an OPS of .800 or better in four of his six years as a starter and played a huge role in the team’s World Series run in 2023.

But after his contract expired this offseason, it seemed like a tall task for Arizona to re-sign him given their lack of postseason revenues in 2024 and how they’ve been financially handcuffed with the Jordan Montgomery contract in 2025, after he exercised his player option.

So after Walker took his talents to Houston, signing a three-year contract with the Astros on Friday, it didn’t take long for the Diamondbacks to find their heir-apparent to the franchise’s first base throne in Josh Naylor.

After a 2023 season in which he broke out with a .308 AVG, .842 OPS, 17 HR and 97 RBI in 495 plate appearances, Naylor followed things up with his first career All-Star campaign in 2024.

Naylor made over 500 plate appearances for this first time in his career this past season, and slashed .243/.320/.456 with a 118 wRC+ and a 2.3 fWAR as well as a career high totals in both HRs (31) and RBI (108).

What Naylor Brings to the Table

While not nearly the defensive master that both Walker and Goldschmidt were at first in their years as a D-back, Naylor offers a way for Arizona to keep up appearances as one of MLB’s top offenses while simultaneously getting roughly six year’s younger at the position in the process.

In 2024, despite missing the postseason, the Snakes ranked in the top 5 in AVG (T-1st), OBP (1st), SLG (2nd), OPS (2nd), HR (5th), RBI (1st), K-rate (4th), BB% (5th), wOBA (T-1st) and wRC+ (T-3rd), according to FanGraphs.

Naylor’s 30+ HR and 100+ RBI potential gives them a suitable replacement for the offensive loss of Walker.

While Walker may have had the better overall underlying metrics when it comes to batted-ball data, Naylor isn’t a clear downgrade by any means. He brings at least average totals in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and AVG exit velocity while being better than his predecessor at avoiding strikeouts.

It’s not a perfect replacement, but he is six years Walker’s junior, and Naylor definitely doesn’t hurt a team offensively.

And when it comes to balancing the books, if it is true that Arizona doesn’t want to dramatically change payroll in either direction this winter, then the just over $3 million more that Naylor is estimated to cost in 2025 than what Walker cost in 2024 ($14.2 for Naylor in 2025 and $10.9 for Walker in 2024) makes only a small dent from a budgetary standpoint.

Although Naylor is not a guarantee for the D-Backs beyond 2025, as he’s a UFA at season’s end, the arbitration year in 2025 allows Arizona to affordably navigate through the year and then have a better shot at re-signing him next winter when Montgomery’s $22.5 million (possibly $25 million) comes off the books.

If Naylor has a great season and walks in free agency, the D-Backs can also recoup some of their return by extending him a qualifying offer to get a draft pick back, just as they will with Christian Walker in the upcoming draft.

Cleveland Commits To It’s Youth Moving Forward

What First Base Will Look Like in 2025 and Beyond

Now from Cleveland’s point of view, this marks another occasion where they’ve traded one of their core pieces before they hit free agency in favor of saving money and embracing the younger options in their system.

It’s no secret that the Guardians had a first base log jam heading into the offseason between Naylor, Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel.

With Manzardo and Noel both under 25 with six years of team control left, compared to Naylor at 27 with just a year of arbitration left, it was easy to see why Naylor was the most expendable piece here. Especially for a team that operates as a small market organization (23rd in team payroll in 2024 according to Spotrac).

Manzardo and Noel now have a clearer path to consistent at-bats at first base, as well as the DH spot, with David Fry out, and in Noel’s case, the corner outfield.

And both are worthy of getting everyday or near-everyday reps at the big league level for Cleveland next season.

While Manzardo’s 98 wRC+ in 156 MLB plate appearances wasn’t the most inspiring of performances, his larger sample size at the Triple-A level offered a lot more promise.

In 364 plate appearances in Columbus last season, Manzardo hit .267 with a .946 OPS, 20 HR, 49 RBI, and a 143 wRC+.

He also demonstrated a great approach at the dish, walking 16.8% of the time and countering that with just an 18.4% K-rate.

Noel offered a little more for Guardians fans to get excited about at the big league level last year. In 198 MLB plate appearances, Big Christmas launched 13 HR with a .774 OPS and a 118 wRC+.

And in Triple-A, his numbers were even better. In 284 plate appearance, Noel hit .295 with a .937 OPS, 18 HR, 59 RBI and a 139 wRC+.

Now, it does need to be noted that just moments after the Naylor deal came through, Carlos Santana signed a one-year, $12 million deal to return to Cleveland, according to MLB insider Jeff Passan. But a one-year contract for a soon-to-be 39-year-old shouldn’t alter a team’s long-term plans by any means.

In fact Santana offers a way for Cleveland to not just throw Manzardo and Noel into the fire at first base and hope for the best, but rather they can now ease them into a more full-time role throughout 2025.

Manzardo could act as the strong-half of a platoon against righties while the switch-hitting Santana can take the ABs versus lefties.

And now that Santana in the fold, if they really want Manzardo to focus on developing his bat more, manager Stephen Vogt can utilize his young first baseman in the DH role early on while Fry is on the IL, and the far better defensive option in Santana can play first.

This signing, also allows the Guardians to continue to give Noel looks in the outfield, where he can utilize his 76th percentile arm strength.

But the most important part of the Santana signing might very well be that optically it’s easier to take plate appearances away from a veteran approaching his 40s in favor of your young guys, than it would be to take plate appearances away from a guy in their mid-to-late 20s who’s seemingly just hitting his prime, like Naylor looks to be.

It’s Not Just First Base Where Change is Occurring

Naylor wasn’t the first name for the Guardians to move this offseason, after dealing Andrés Giménez to the Blue Jays during the Winter Meetings. And he may not be their last big name to move, as Lane Thomas is reportedly on the trade block.

Like we’ve discussed with Manzardo and Noel, moving on from these veteran names offers a way for Cleveland to embrace their young options currently on the cusp of being big-league regulars.

Giménez was an expensive and offensively deficient road-block for last season’s first overall draft pick and Just Baseball’s No. 18 overall prospect, Travis Bazzana, who according to our prospect expert Aram Leighton, holds a 2025 ETA to the bigs.

And if they’re to trade Thomas, an outfield spot will be available for our No. 20 overall prospect, Chase DeLauter, who also holds a 2025 ETA.

The next generation of talented Guardians is coming through, and trading away Naylor signifies that Cleveland is undoubtedly all-in on ensuring that their lineup has sustainable success for years come.

What Cecconi Adds to the Pitching Mix

While a Comp B pick plays into the sustainable success argument, the headline of the return from Arizona for Naylor was 25-year-old right hander Slade Cecconi, who could play a role in the future of this rotation for the foreseeable future.

His 2024 season at the major league level was nothing to right home about, as in 20 appearances (13 of which were starts) he posted a 6.66 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and a .290 AVG against.

But Cecconi displayed some of the prospect pedigree he once held (being a 33rd overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft) at the Triple-A level in 2024. In 18 appearances (five starts), Cecconi threw to a 3.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a .201 AVG against.

And looking back a bit further, a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seven games at the MLB level in his debut season in 2023 is a pretty solid showing overall.

Cecconi gives the Guardians another decently young arm to develop. And we should all be aware by now that the Guardians know a thing or two about developing pitching in order to get the most out of them at the big league level.

Ben Lively and his breakout MLB campaign in 2024 is a prime example.

Cecconi has a well-rounded four pitch mix at his disposal for Cleveland to work with, a four seam fastball (used 54.9% of the time), a slider (used 24.0% of the time), a changeup (used 12.2% of the time) and a curveball (used 8.9% of the time).

While his fastball and slider were punished this season, the results he put up in 2023 give reason to believe that those pitches both can and have been effective at the major league level. And he showed that his third and fourth options, in his changeup and curveball, can be effective big league offerings as well, based on their results this past season.

And beyond some promise in his arsenal, Cecconi also offers Cleveland a pitcher that has incredible control of his stuff, as made evident by his low walk rates, which were at just 3.6% in MLB in 2023, and just 5.0% in 2024.

And after flashing a 29.5% K-rate in Triple-A in 2024, the Guardians could potentially unlock an arm that has decent strikeout capabilities, which would make up for some of his issues he has with hard-hit rates, resulting in higher SLG rates on some of his pitches.

He offers another good 25 to 26-year-old option to add to the mix of their ace Tanner Bibee, and middle-rotation options like Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo and the newly acquired Luis Ortiz.

While his one remaining minor league option gives the Guardians the ability to work on his game in the upper minors should they chose, he also offers a suitable replacement for Triston McKenzie, who struggled both on the mound as well as with injuries in 2024.

And with newly re-signed Shane Bieber set to miss at least a good portion of 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Cecconi offers some decent upside pitching depth.

For a farm system that is headlined by the five position players on Just Baseball’s Top 100 Prospects list, adding another young arm with a promising past to develop helps keep this organization as youthful as possible from a pitching standpoint.

And this additional draft pick also heading Cleveland’s way in this deal, gives them another pick to possibly address the lack of pitching in this farm system top-end.

The Guardians traded a year of Naylor into rotation depth, a draft pick, and then they used most of the money they saved on his deal to bring back a veteran leader (Santana) who has played 10 seasons and over 1,300 games in their uniform.

While having Josh Naylor may still have been the best thing for the 2025 Guardians, there is no question that this series of moves was the best thing for the future of this small market team.