Do the Red Sox Have Enough to Win the Division?
The Red Sox quietly had one of the better offseasons in baseball this past winter, and they've got a real shot to surprise people this year.
Boston sports have had a magical run of championships. Since 2000, their only professional team to not win multiple championships is the Bruins, who won one in 2011. The Celtics championship in 2024 ended the city’s longest championship drought since 2000 – only five years.
To say fans have grown used to a standard of raising banners is an understatement, it’s in their blood at this point. Because that standard is so high, pressure comes with it. The Boston Red Sox, who have four championships in the past 25 years, have only made the playoffs once since winning a World Series in 2018.
Fans have been critical of the team since trading Mookie Betts away and operating closer to a small market team than a team with the second largest market behind none other than their rival, the New York Yankees.
However, the Red Sox flipped the narrative this past winter. Maybe seeing the Yankees reach the World Series was enough to make the team become more aggressive. Trading for the young lefty ace from the White Sox worked in the past and the Red Sox are trying it again with Garrett Crochet.
But, they didn’t stop there. Boston then turned around and threw $120,000 million at the best bat left on the market in Alex Bregman. A move that silenced even the loudest doubts and critics. A move that tells the baseball world “we are here to win.”
We know the Red Sox are legitimately trying to make a deep run, but do they have enough to win the also competitive AL East?
Proven Veterans & Superstars
Take a look at every team to win the World Series in the past 25 years and you’ll notice a theme. Almost all have a collection of proven veterans and bona fide superstars. Keeping a winning pace over the span of 162 games and into the playoffs is difficult and having proven players and veterans that know what it takes provides a floor that keeps a team afloat during periods of poor play.
For the Red Sox, they have a few players that fall into these categories. Rafael Devers is one of the better, and most consistent, offensive players in the American League. A plus hit tool with power gives the Red Sox a true threat in the middle of their lineup.
What they were missing is another threat to complement Devers and they addressed that need by signing Alex Bregman. Bregman is coming off a down year for his standard, but still posted a 4.1 fWAR but saw his wRC+ drop below 120 for the first time since 2016, his rookie year.
However, Bregman still offers solid defense, a great approach, and enough power to bounce back to the player he has shown throughout his career. I’m sure the green monster in left will quickly become his friend.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox three biggest additions all fit into this category. Garrett Crochet gives Boston the high upside, yet proven, ace that they were lacking. The addition of Walker Buehler brings high upside along with invaluable playoff experience. Lastly, Aroldis Chapman, who admittedly is nearing the end of his career, comes with plenty of experience and can still run it up to 100 mph.
I think it’s fair to say the Red Sox have two superstars in Devers and Crochet. We could debate where Bregman falls, but I have in the next tier of high end players. Buehler and Chapman fall into the proven veterans with experience.
Upside to Dream on
Of course, teams need more than just high end veterans. Often times teams are propelled by younger player’s development taking a leap that raises the overall ceiling. This group not only includes top prospects but players who are established with more room to grow. Think 2024 Jarren Duran, who surprised all with his 6.7 fWAR season, but will need another big season to enter the star category.
The lineup could see a boost from Wilyer Abreu or Triston Casas reaching another level. Both players have flashed tools that give them a high ceiling, but have also proved, to some extent, that there’s a high floor as well. Casas very well could be another middle-of-the-lineup threat, but will need to stay healthy in order to do so.
Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the more interesting wild-cards on this team. The 24 year-old has been a great defender in center, but his bat is lagging behind. He’s put together a great spring training and considering his tools, a breakout is not out of the question.
Boston has has three top prospect who could all theoretically factor in this season. Roman Anthony, Just Baseball’s no. 1 prospect, is a true five-tool prospect with ridiculous power potential, even at 20 years old. After reaching Triple-A last season, a call-up at some point is not out of the question.
Middle infielders Marcelo Mayer (JB no. 28) and Kristian Campbell (JB no. 36) are both knocking on the door as well. Both prospects hit over .300 in the upper minors and have the tools that can translate to major league success.
Luckily, the Red Sox do not have to count on any of these prospects stepping in on day to and contributing. It’s more likely that only one truly contributes this year than all three, and that’s okay. They can essentially serve as depth that continues to develop in the minors and can be called upon once injuries hit.
State of the Division
Simply put, the AL East is a juggernaut. Each team has a roster good enough to make the playoffs and even make some noise once they get there. The one team that I’m hesitant give that distinction to is the Rays.
How many times have I looked at a Rays roster and said “yeah, this is not nearly good enough” only for them to make the playoffs? Last season’s 80-82 record resulted in their first year without making it to the playoffs since 2018. I have serious concerns about their lineup, but the Rays are the Rays. They’ll find a way.
Although the Yankees lost Juan Soto, their roster is still stacked with talent and upside players. A few veterans might be pushing their expiration date, and losing Gerrit Cole is a massive blow, but they are still going to win a lot of games. The additions they made this offseason, at the very least, give them quality depth and experience. Their young core has the talent to make up for what they have lost.
Baltimore has the high end young talent with more on the way. Their lineup is up there with the best in baseball. However, their rotation comes with concern. Injury has put a dent into an already suspect group and now more is on the shoulders of 41 year-old Charlie Morton and 35 year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, who has yet to debut.
Lastly, the Blue Jays. A team teetering on very good or entering complete rebuild mode. A roster with talent, but a team that only won 74 games last season. Considering Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in contract years, a slow start could kick start a rebuild. We’ve also seen team rally around a foreseeable teardown and provide a “one last dance” moment.
Our friends at BetMGM have the Red Sox with the second best odds (+260) to win the division behind the Yankees. Boston is projected at 86.5 wins, tied with Baltimore for the second most behind the Yankees 88.5. A close division that might come down to who manages their weaknesses the best.
Red Sox Concerns
Okay, enough positivity. Like all teams, the Red Sox have their concerns. The first concern comes with their rotation. Injuries to Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are likely to kick more innings to Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts.
Fitts has been solid, but not spectacular, throughout his minor league career and has seen his stuff generate less and less swing and miss as he has climbed levels. Priester is not a pitcher that I am particularly high on, either. If Boston needs to rely on these two in any variation of an expanded role, there could be trouble.
My second concern is the bench. Rob Refsnyder is a good option against lefties, but the fall off after him is pretty drastic. How much faith do you have in Romy Gonzalez and Nick Sogard? Not bad players, but hardly proven. Non-roster invitees Abraham Toro, Nate Eaton, and Trayce Thompson are what they are – fringe major leaguers with flaws. Prospects could help push this depth to the minors, but we need to see it to believe it.
Lastly, the Red Sox bullpen feels like they are a couple guys short. Chapman, Justin Slaten, and Garrett Whitlock give you some level of comfort. Liam Hendriks is a wildcard after missing essentially two years with injury, and the other veterans are pretty meh, to me.
Final Thoughts
The more I think about the Yankees the more I pull away from them. Injuries have already given them a speed bump and I think they will take a slight step back because of it. The only other team I truly think is in the same tier is Baltimore, who’s rotation gives me concerns but the lineup makes up for it.
The Orioles have the talent and probably more than the Red Sox. However, I cannot seem to buy in all the way. Maybe my gut is lying to me, but I am siding with the Red Sox. I think their offseason indicates how serious they are about advancing this roster quicker than I anticipated.
If it comes down to it, I have more faith in the Red Sox making the in-season move necessary to push them over the top than I do with Baltimore. Each team has the prospect capital to pull off an impact trade, but I worry the Orioles will be hesitate.
Give me the Red Sox winning the division and Boston fans, who have had plenty to celebrate, get to smile during the summer again.
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