Should the Rangers Be the Favorites in the AL West?
After a disappointing 2024, the Rangers are poised to bounce back and take the AL West in 2025.
The last time that the Texas Rangers won the AL West was in 2016. It marked the eighth time that the organization had claimed the division.
Over the last eight years, the Houston Astros have won a remarkable seven AL West titles. The only year they failed to do so was the strange pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Houston’s dominance over the last eight years is why, on the Just Baseball podcast preview of the AL West, Aram Leighton took them to win the division yet again in 2025.
As new Ranger Joc Pederson said about the Astros at his introductory press conference this winter: “They’ve put together a nice little run. It’s coming to an end. It’s time for us to take over the West.”
Shots fired! That is one way to let your presence be known with your new club.
Pederson might have made a few people in the Rangers’ front office a bit uneasy with his comments. But the reality is there is a great case to be made that Texas is indeed the best team in the division heading into 2025.
In the same Just Baseball preview podcast, Jack McMullen was indeed “buying into the Rangers’ ceiling” and chose Texas to win the AL West. Let’s take a look at why the Rangers are the team to beat in the AL West.
Offensive Firepower
Will the Rangers’ offense perform more like the 2023 version that scored runs at will (5.44 per game), or the 2024 version (4.22 per game) that struggled to plate guys and scored nearly 200 fewer runs? The short answer is 2023.
The long answer is that several guys are not only looking to bounce back this season, but the expectations are that they do just that.
Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Evan Carter, and Leody Taveras all should bounce back nicely after down years in 2024. Even Marcus Semien, who was just average last year, should be more of a force on the offensive side of the ball this season.
Corey Seager is going to continue to be one of the best hitters in the game. To go along with him, Wyatt Langford will be looking to take the momentum from his September AL Rookie and Player of the Month Award performances into his sophomore season. Langford has a legit chance to be a 30-30 guy, and soon.
Josh Jung will be working on staying out of the way of any fast-moving baseballs. That is because after being hit both at the plate and in the field the past two seasons, it led to some freak broken bones that have sidelined him quite a bit.
Jung is underappreciated outside of Texas because he has yet to play more than 122 games in a season. If he can lock down third and slug in the middle of the lineup this year, Jung will put up some robust numbers.
And on top of all of that, the addition of both Pederson and Jake Burger is a big deal. The Rangers didn’t slug last season, and both of these guys can do just that.
Any pitcher that looks at the Rangers’ lineup is going to be hard pressed to find a soft spot.
A One-Two Punch of deGrom and Eovaldi
Until Jacob deGrom goes out and has more than 20 starts and stays relatively healthy throughout a season, he will be looked upon as a constant injury guy. He got the wrap in New York when he was with the Mets, and it followed him to Texas. He has started nine games in his first two seasons with the Rangers due to Tommy John surgery in 2023.
But deGrom is healthy this spring. He looks crisp and sharp. What if deGrom can pitch most of the season? That means that the Rangers are going to win more baseball games. The team is going to limit his work early, but some deGrom is better than no deGrom.
In 2023, he only started six games before getting hurt. The Rangers won all six of those contests, and without that they would not have made the playoffs — or subsequently won the World Series.
He is still the best pitcher on the planet when healthy, and that is reason enough to be excited about the Rangers’ rotation.
To go along with deGrom, the Rangers are bringing back Nathan Eovaldi. He has been a rock for the team over the past few years and the significance of his return can’t be overstated.
With deGrom and Eovaldi headlining the rotation, they are one of the most dominant one-two punches in the game. There are plenty of others that are formidable, but if the Rangers can get 20 to 25-plus starts out of both deGrom and Eovaldi this year, they will be set up well to take the AL West.
The Rest of Rotation is Solid and Deep
Similar to deGrom, Tyler Mahle will be looking to pitch well after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Cody Bradford should also earn a spot in the rotation. He pitched great across 76.1 innings in 2024; In 14 games (13 starts), he went 6-3 while putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He will be the lone lefty in the rotation.
Jon Gray could have a breakout season. He will be in the last year of his four-year, $56 million contract. Gray has been hampered by some leg injuries in the past few seasons, but he appears to be healthy and ready to go for 2025.
Gray could be a big difference-maker in the Rangers’ rotation. Mentally, he seems to be in a better place and his stuff is as electric as ever. According to Baseball Savant, he was mainly a fastball (44.4%) and slider (43.9%) guy who mixed in the occasional changeup (7.1%) and curveball (4.6%) in 2024.
The internal depth comes from the likes of youngsters Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, along with Dane Dunning. All three guys could find themselves in various roles within the organization at different points this season.
The possibilities include starting the season in the rotation, making spot starts in Arlington, serving as a relief option in the Rangers’ bullpen, or pitching down in Triple-A Round Rock.
Managing innings for Rocker will be something that the Rangers will be paying attention to as he starts his first full season post Tommy John.
Fellow Vandy Boy, Leiter, is ready for the big leagues, but it is unclear if that will come as a starter or reliever this season. With potential injuries, he may see action for the Rangers in both roles in 2025.
Dunning gets lost in the mix after a rough 2024 campaign. What many people forget is that he was the Rangers Pitcher of the Year winner in 2023, recording 12 victories on the season.
In 172.2 innings pitched in 2023, Dunning had a 3.70 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an fWAR of 2.0. Whether he’s the long man out of the ‘pen, or a spot starter in the rotation, Dunning knows how to succeed in the major leagues.
The Bullpen Should Be Better Than Many Think
Bullpens are an interesting animal. They can give fans confidence, heart palpitations, or grief. Many people feel like the 2025 Rangers ‘pen is going to be doing more of the latter two scenarios than perform well.
And that assessment could play out to be true, but I don’t believe that it will. Sure, there will be some games that seem to slip away in the late innings. Every team will have some of those. Heck, the 2023 Rangers were terrible at getting leads to the finish line for most of the regular season.
Chris Young knew that they were going to have to get creative this offseason in revamping the Rangers bullpen. With limited resources, he wasn’t going to be able to simply go out and sign (or re-sign) the best relievers on the market.
Instead he brought in a large number of veteran guys that are either on the back end of their career — like Chris Martin — or are looking to prove themselves serviceable once again.
Trading Nathaniel Lowe was a straight salary dump to allow for some additional moves. But in the process, the Rangers picked up Robert Garcia in exchange for Lowe. Garcia is a good lefty arm that has pitched in some leverage and will probably find himself in the back end of the ‘pen throughout the season.
Not only did Young add many new veteran arms to the bullpen, but there are several internal young guys that will play a vital role this year.
Look out for fireballers Marc Church and Emiliano Teodo to make their presence known at some point in the season. Teodo has touched 100-plus mph, and Church has flirted with it at 99.6 mph.
Don’t expect the Rangers ‘pen to be one of the best in baseball in 2025, but you shouldn’t expect them to be one of the worst either.
A solid rotation and Bruce Bochy calling the shots will both help make this ‘pen serviceable. Which, with their offense and depth at the starter position, is probably all that they need to be.
The Astros and Mariners Are Good, but They’re Not Great
Entering the 2025 season, FanGraphs has the AL West as a virtual dead heat. Their playoff predictions have the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners finishing within a half game of each other with Texas getting the slight nod.
The Astros’ new corner infielders Isaac Paredes (third base) and Christian Walker (first base) are great players. Just about any team would improve with them being added to the roster. The issue for the Astros is not who they added, but who left the team.
Kyle Tucker was traded to the Cubs. Then, they let Alex Bregman walk in free agency to sign with the Red Sox. Losing both Tucker and Bregman is going to be tough for Houston. Minus Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, the Astros’ core that has led them to so many playoff runs is running thin.
Then there is Seattle. The team with the best rotation in baseball, and yet one of the worst offenses in the game. They are a very good team, and the pitching should keep them relevant throughout the year. But the odds that they can perform at the elite level that they did last year could be a stretch.
And offensively, well, the Mariners didn’t do much.
“The fact that they (Seattle) missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball,” former Mariners infielder Justin Turner told USA TODAY Sports, “just seems absurd to me.”
A’s and Angels Are Not AL West Contenders Yet
Then there are the A’s and the Angels. These two teams might not end up with the best records, but both of them will be capable of winning a series against anyone in the league.
I would say that the A’s are going to surprise some people in 2025, but with the way that they finished last year, it shouldn’t come as much of a shock. The A’s went 39-37 over the final three months of the season.
The Angels are, well, the Angels. Sadly, it is hard to take the team seriously. Despite having some of the best players of all-time in Mike Trout and previously Shohei Ohtani, the last time that the Angels won the AL West was 2014.
In the past ten seasons, they have managed one second-place finish, two thirds, six fourths, and a fifth-place finish.
Even during their AL West second-place finish in 2017, the team finished below .500 at 80-82. Los Angeles’ last season at or above .500 came in 2015, putting them on a nine-year run of sub-.500 ball. That’s a rough stretch that probably gets extended to 10 years in 2025.
Can the Rangers Win the AL West in 2025?
Six months and 162 games. That is the amount of time that it will take to figure out if the Rangers truly are the best in the AL West this season.
There are bound to be many ups and downs that feature plenty of twists and turns along the way. That is one of the beauties of baseball. But with the current roster and farm system that is in place, it is a real possibility that the Rangers will be celebrating the club’s ninth division title come September.
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West Jones is a baseball enthusiast who resides in Texas. He is a graduate of Tarleton State University (finance) and has his MBA from Ball State…