NL and AL MVP Odds: Pre-All-Star Break Update

This weekend will mark the final three games of play before the All-Star break. With just over half of the regular season in the books, here’s an updated look at where the NL and AL MVP races stand from an odds perspective.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM: When you deposit and bet $5 on any game, you get $150 back in bonus bets upon completion of the game regardless of the outcome. Click here to redeem the Bet $5, get $150 offer or use code JUSTBASEBALL.

Latest NL MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani: -350

Ohtani has, of course, already won a pair of AL MVPs, doing so in 2021 and 2023. He’s aiming to become the second active player to win three MVP Awards, joining his former teammate Mike Trout.

With an NL MVP win in 2024, Ohtani would also join Hall of Famer Frank Robinson as the only players to have won an MVP in both leagues.

What Ohtani has working against him is the fact that no player who has exclusively played DH has ever won an MVP. Hall of Famer David Ortiz finished runner-up in 2005 AL MVP voting.

Ohtani may have to hit 50 home runs to win the MVP, but he’s already got 28 bombs and NL-best marks in slugging percentage (.627), OPS (1.026), OPS+ (187) and total bases (224). If there’s anyone capable of bucking prior trends, it’s Ohtani.

Bryce Harper: +650

Harper recently missed some time with a left hamstring strain, but a 10-day injured list stint is hardly disqualifying for the eight-time All-Star. Like Ohtani, Harper is aiming to become the second active player with three MVPs, with prior wins in 2015 and 2021.

Where Harper will have an advantage over Ohtani is that he plays a defensive position and has graded out well — three defensive runs saved and five outs above average — in his first full season at first base. If his offensive numbers are close to Ohtani’s, he’ll likely take home the prize.

Freddie Freeman: +1100

Freeman was the NL MVP in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and has finished fifth or better in voting for the award in five other seasons. By this point, he’s already cemented his status as a Hall of Famer. Still, winning an MVP in a full 162-game season would only enhance his Cooperstown-bound legacy.

As per usual, Freeman has been one of the most productive hitters in the senior circuit, with 13 home runs, 25 doubles and an .889 OPS. At the very least, it appears he’ll add to his list of top-five MVP finishes.

Marcell Ozuna: +2200

On a Braves team that lost Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season and has gotten relatively disappointing performances from Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II, it’s Ozuna who has been the most consistent source of power for Brian Snitker’s squad. He currently leads the NL with 75 RBIs, and his .943 OPS trails only Ohtani and Harper.

Like Ohtani, Ozuna has the DH thing going against him. But he’s definitely worthy of being in the discussion after a monster first half that’s propelled him to his third career All-Star Game appearance.

Ketel Marte: +2500

The Arizona Diamondbacks, last year’s NL champions, have disappointed as a whole. But Marte, the reigning NLCS MVP, is putting together another excellent season. According to FanGraphs, Marte’s 3.6 WAR is fifth among NL position players, while his 11 defensive runs saved are second.

For Marte to have a realistic shot at winning NL MVP, the Diamondbacks would probably have to make a run at the top Wild Card spot. That seems unlikely, but Marte finished fourth in NL MVP voting back in 2019 and could potentially match that this year.

Francisco Lindor: +3000

Lindor was one of the biggest All-Star Game snubs this year, as he and the New York Mets have come roaring back from a slow start. Lindor has homered 16 times, recorded 26 doubles and has nine outs above average at shortstop.

In each of the last two seasons, Lindor has finished ninth in NL MVP voting. His highest finish in MVP voting came in 2017 when he came in fifth in the AL while playing for Cleveland.

Latest AL MVP Odds

Aaron Judge: -300

Judge has three top-four finishes in AL MVP Award voting in his career and is steaming towards another. In fact, he may wind up winning the honor for the second time in three years, as he leads the junior circuit in home runs (32), RBIs (83), slugging percentage (.664), OPS (1.085) and OPS+ (200).

Because Judge wasn’t a full-time player until his age-25 season and has had some injury-shortened campaigns, a second MVP would do wonders for his future Hall of Fame case.

Gunnar Henderson: +325

An All-Star for the first time, Henderson leads baseball in both runs scored (77) and fWAR (6.2). If he played in the NL, he would probably be the favorite for the MVP. Yet as things stand, Judge overshadows him in the AL race.

Henderson, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, is looking to join Baltimore legend Cal Ripken Jr. as the only Orioles to win the AL MVP (1983) the year after ROY (1982).

Juan Soto: +1500

As hard as it is to believe, Soto has never won an MVP. He finished second in NL MVP voting while with the Washington Nationals in 2021. He also finished fifth with the Nationals in the shortened 2020 season and sixth as a member of the San Diego Padres last year.

In his first year with the New York Yankees, Soto may have to settle for another top-six finish. He’ll be happy to take that into free agency this offseason, where he’ll get paid like an MVP.

Bobby Witt Jr.: +2000

Witt’s 25 doubles are tied for most in the AL, and he leads all of baseball with 122 hits. Elsewhere on the AL leaderboards, Witt is third in fWAR (5.7), second in runs scored (74) and tied for first in stolen bases (22).

It’s unfortunate for Witt that Henderson has been the best shortstop in baseball, because it’s prevented him from getting the recognition that he deserves. Still, if he leads the Kansas City Royals to their first playoff appearance since 2015, he’s going to finish in the top five in MVP voting.

José Ramírez: +4000

Ramírez has never won an AL MVP, despite the fact that he’s headed to the All-Star Game for the sixth time. He finished third in both 2017 and 2018, second in the COVID season and fourth in 2022. In total, Ramírez has six prior finishes in the top 10.

Even if Ramírez “only” finishes in the top five again, he’s building a compelling Hall of Fame case. Since the start of the 2016 season, FanGraphs says that Ramírez’s 46.6 WAR is second among position players, only slightly behind the 47.2 mark of the aforementioned Trout.

Yordan Alvarez: +8000

The Houston Astros are surging as the first half of the season winds down, and you just get the feeling they are going to find a way to usurp the Seattle Mariners and win the AL West.

With that in mind, putting some money down on Alvarez right now might not be the worst idea. He’s got 19 home runs, 51 RBIs and a .921 OPS. A big second half for the Astros could put Alvarez at the forefront of the race.