What Kind of Haul Could Merrill Kelly Net the D-Backs?

Entering Wednesday’s game against the Detroit Tigers, the Arizona Diamondbacks have lose four games in a row and are just 1-7 in their previous eight games. Meanwhile, during that time, they’ve traded away Josh Naylor and Randal Grichuk, signifying that they are indeed MLB trade deadline sellers.

They still have numerous players on the trade block, including reliable starting pitcher Merrill Kelly.

The rumors are taking a toll on the team, as they clearly appear to be going through the motions as the whole team is on the edge of their seat over if they’ll get traded. That’s especially true when, while it’s a long-shot, there have been reports that Ketel Marte has been discussed in trades.

While it’s extremely unlikely, that can just add to the anxiety and stress placed on players when they hear that even the face of the franchise is in trade talks. Combine that with the massive amount of injuries they’ve taken on, and it’s just been too much to overcome.

That’s why their best starting pitcher this season, Kelly, is being made available in trades.

A Top Arm on the Trade Market

Kelly has been the “mainstay” of the Diamondbacks’ rotation as their most dependable arm. Kelly hasn’t missed a start but has had to depart early on a couple of occasions due to cramping. That seems to have been figured out, as he hasn’t had a cramping issue in a while.

Overall, Kelly has pitched 128.2 innings across a league-leading 22 starts. He’s been worth 3.3 bWAR thanks to an ERA of 3.22, 133 ERA+, 3.54 FIP, and a 3.61 xFIP. Kelly has struck out 121 batters with only 38 walks. He’s in his age-36 season and appears to be the picture of health, a rare thing for Arizona this year.

He’s given up just 98 hits and 14 home runs. His strikeout rate this year (23.5%) is in line with his career norms, and opponents are hitting just .206 against him. That makes for an elite No. 3 starter with the potential for No. 2-type outings that would fit in any contender’s rotation.

Kelly doesn’t throw hard, just a 92 mph average on his fastball, but he offsets that with elite control and the ability to throw any of his six pitches for strikes. That’s led to him being in the 93rd percentile for Pitching Run Value and in the 98th percentile for Offspeed Run Value, according to Baseball Savant.

Considering he’s on just a $7 million contract this year with roughly just over $2 million left to be paid out, he’s eminently affordable for every contending team. It should not be a surprise if a bidding war happens for the veteran arm.

Teams surely noticed his playoff ability in 2023 as well when he pitched 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 28 strikeouts, and won a World Series game.

So, who could win the Kelly sweepstakes in the coming days? Here are some potential candidates.

What Could Teams Offer the D-Backs For Merrill Kelly?

Houston Astros

The Astros need another starting pitcher to join Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown at the top of the rotation. They need a playoff-tested No. 3 pitcher, someone exactly like Kelly. This could be a déjà vu moment for Arizona and Houston, similar to when Houston acquired Zack Greinke in 2019 to serve as their No. 3 starter behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

To get him though, it would likely take Houston’s top pitching prospect, Miguel Ullola, and probably another pitching prospect in the vein of Alimber Santa.

Ullola is in Triple-A and is a starting pitcher with an elite fastball but secondaries that need to be worked on to stay in the rotation. Santa is in Double-A and has the makings of an elite reliever. He has a 1.26 ERA in 57 innings this year thanks to a 100-mph fastball and mid-80s slider.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays need another starting pitcher. After getting reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles, they still need more arms in a wide-open American League.

However, their farm system is on the lower end in MLB. That will require a higher price to be paid in their system. One such package could be getting Khal Stephen, a top right-handed starting pitcher in their system, and another prospect, Josh Kasevich.

Stephen is in Double-A and appears to be a fast-riser. He profiles as a back-end MLB starting pitcher and is having an excellent season. Across three levels this year, he has an ERA of 2.06 with 18 walks and 99 strikeouts in 91.2 innings.

As for Kasevich, he’s a low-ceiling, high-floor infielder already in Triple-A. Although he missed most of this season with an injury, he’s healthy now, and his contact-oriented approach would fit with Arizona’s identity.

Chicago Cubs

In order for the Cubs to avoid paying three or more prospects, it’ll probably take one of their top ones and a mid-tier guy in this seller’s market. That premium prospect will likely be Jaxon Wiggins, who is the Cubs’ top pitching prospect. That’s the price that’s needed in this seller’s market. Pair him with Jack Neely, and they have a deal, likely.

Wiggins is in Double-A and is having an outstanding year. The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA through 62.1 innings with 79 strikeouts and 28 walks. He’s climbed a level this year already and could finish the year in Triple-A.

Neely has made his MLB debut already and is in the mold of Justin Martínez. He has severe command issues that need fixing, but when he’s on, he’s unhittable. His slider is a masterpiece that is hardly hit, and his fastball is thrown close to 100 mph. It just depends on control, something Arizona helped Martínez overcome.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox probably won’t give up Payton Tolle, so it will take two lesser options to entice Arizona to bite.

Those two options could be Brandon Clarke and Blake Wehunt. Clarke is a high-A left-handed starter that has the potential to be a reliever or a mid-rotation starter, depending on whether he can develop good command. He can reach 100 mph on his fastball. He has a 3.09 ERA over two levels and 35 innings this year. That includes 56 strikeouts and 21 walks.

Wehunt is in Double-A and throws from the right side. He’s pitched 52.2 innings of 3.76 ball. He has 18 walks and 63 strikeouts. He has a good shot at making to MLB as a back-end starting pitcher with a good four-pitch mix.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are reportedly discussing starting pitchers with Arizona, and they have plenty of pitching prospects that Arizona would like.

A package of Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz and Roc Riggio would probably get the trade done. Riggio is a second baseman who is just 23 years old and in Double-A. He’s a contact-oriented bat with solid power who hits from the left side. He has a .951 OPS over three levels this year with 18 homers and 60 hits in 60 games.

Rodriguez-Cruz is a right-handed starting pitcher. He’s in Double-A as well. He’s climbed a level this year and has a 2.42 ERA over 96.2 combined innings. In that span, he has 39 walks and 109 strikeouts. Opponents have hit .185 against him. His fastball tops out at 98 mph with three other pitches that could be above-average eventually. As he commands better, he should become a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher in an MLB rotation.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers need another strong starting pitcher, especially with Reese Olsen being lost for the season. The Diamondbacks are currently visiting Detroit and could make a trade as the Blue Jays and Orioles did, where the player walks down the hallway. It would be a costly trade, but this would give the Tigers an official No. 2 behind Tarik Skubal for the playoffs.

Troy Melton would be the ideal guy for Arizona to acquire, as he is in MLB right now and just pitched seven scoreless against Arizona on Monday evening. He’s a high-upside starter who would be able to slot in right away and become a potential strong starter for the Diamondbacks.

They could ask for Double-A second baseman Max Anderson as well. He’s got an .889 OPS with 13 homers. He can hit for power and average with enough defensive chops to stay at second base and be in the majors in a year or so.

Merrill Kelly is one of the best arms available at this year’s MLB Trade Deadline. He will likely bring in multiple strong prospects that will aid in Arizona Diamondbacks’ quick retool ahead of 2026 and 2027, where they will look to contend once again.

Stats were taken prior to play on July 29.