Milwaukee Brewers 2024 Season Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are entering a new era of baseball. With a new manger at the helm and a completely revamped starting rotation, the Brewers are going to look quite different in 2024.

Projection systems from FanGraphs and PECOTA have the Brewers winning about 80 games, which would be a significant step back after winning 92 games last season. However, that projection feels about right when you dig into their roster.

Both their offense and their pitching staff have a bit of uncertainty heading into the season. There’s a lot of young players looking to establish themselves as core pieces of the future, but leaning on that young talent can also yield a wide range of outcomes.

That said, the Brewers are in an interesting position. They retooled their roster this offseason, and have shifted their focus onto building a competitive roster for the future. At the same time, the National League Central is a wide-open division, and they could still seemingly compete for a division title if everything clicks with their young players.

While the roster might look a bit different, there is plenty to be excited about in 2024.

Notable 2024 Departures

There is a new skipper in town for the first time since the 2015 season. Following Craig Counsell’s departure for the division rival Chicago Cubs, Pat Murphy takes over as the manager after spending the previous eight seasons as the team’s bench coach.

Additionally, the club will be without key front office executive David Stearns, as he now serves as the President of Baseball Operations for the New York Mets. Stearns was the club’s general manager from September of 2015 to October of 2022, but he spend the 2023 season in an advisory role within the organization.

On top of the major managerial and front office changes, the roster itself faced a good bit of turnover. Parts of this roster will look much different than it did a season ago.

• SP Corbin Burnes – Traded to the Baltimore Orioles.

• SP Adrian Houser – Traded to the New York Mets.

• OF Tyrone Taylor – Traded to the New York Mets.

• 1B Carlos Santana – Left as a free agent for the Minnesota Twins.

• OF Mark Canha – Traded to the Detroit Tigers.

• C Victor Caratini – Left as a free agent for the Houston Astros.

• 1B Rowdy Tellez – After being non-tendered, left as a free agent for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

On top of parting ways with of the best pitchers in the sport in Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee also departed with several key depth pieces this offseason. While Burnes may headline the list, many of the names on this list have been valuable contributors to the club’s success in recent years.

Notable 2024 Additions

• LHP DL Hall – Acquired from Baltimore for Corbin Burnes.

• INF Joey Ortiz – Acquired from Baltimore for Corbin Burnes.

• RHP Jakob Junis – Signed for a one-year deal as a free agent.

• 1B Rhys Hoskins – Signed for a two-year deal as a free agent (the contract includes an opt-out after the first season).

• RHP Joe Ross – Signed a one-year deal as a free agent.

• C Gary Sanchez – Signed a one-year deal as a free agent.

• C Eric Haase – Signed a one-year deal as a free agent.

• 1B Jake Bauers – Acquired from the New York Yankees for minor league outfielders Jace Avina and Brian Sánchez.

Of the notable additions, Hoskins is by far the most noteworthy impact signing in the short-term, but Hall and Ortiz could be major long-term assets for years to come.

Projected Starting Lineup

There are a lot of puzzle pieces in this Brewers lineup. They have a surplus of outfielders for a finite number of positions, and that is going to force some unique lineups in 2024.

On top of deploying different lineups based on the opposing pitcher, the Brewers could also tweak the lineup based on where Christian Yelich is playing. Given their personnel, the Brewers could have a lot of flexibility with lineup construction, and where Yelich is positioned could have a ripple effect on the rest of the order.

Projected Starting Lineup

Infield

William Contreras broke out last season and evolved into one of the best catchers in the entire sport heading into the 2024 season. Offensively, he became a much more well-rounded hitter. While he did still hit 17 homers, he sacrificed some of his power to improve in the contact department.

He managed to drop his whiff rate by over six percent and increase his zone contact rate by nearly five percent, and that led to a seven percent drop in strikeout rate last season. In turn, Contreras posted the best batting average of his career (.289), he got on base at the highest rate of his career (.367), and he still managed to rack up a whopping 56 extra-base hits.

The most significant improvement for Contreras came behind the dish, however. His defensive abilities took a major leap forward, as he improved his blocking, framing, and overall run value by wide margin last season. He’s entrenched as the Brewers’ top backstop in 2024, and he should see some time as the designated hitter when he gets the occasional off day behind the plate.

First base was arguably Milwaukee’s biggest need this offseason, and the club addressed it by brining in one of the top first baseman on the market. After spending his first six seasons in Philadelphia, Rhys Hoskins joins the Brewers on a two-year deal, and he immediately slides into the heart of their order as one of the best power bats in their lineup.

Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL last spring, but he’s back to full health and appears primed for a comeback season in Milwaukee. In his six-year career, Hoskins is sporting an .846 OPS, a 126 wRC+, and a .230 Isolated Power.

Last season, the Brewers were near the bottom of the league in first base production, ranking 28th in OPS (.681), 28th in wRC+ (83), and 27th in fWAR (0.0). If Hoskins can return to form, he is going to be an integral part of the Brewers’ offense.

After putting together a strong defensive season in his rookie year, Brice Turang will look to take a step forward offensively in his sophomore season as the club’s primary second baseman. Turang struggled at the plate in 2023, slashing just .218/.285/.300 for an OPS of .585 and a 60 wRC+. In order to become a consistent offensive contributor, Turang will need to improve his quality of contact in 2024.

Throughout his time in the minor leagues, Turang demonstrated that he can be an offensive weapon with his ability to put the ball in play and make an impact with his legs. If he can get back to being that type of hitter while continuing to bring Gold Glove-caliber defense to the second base position, Turang is a strong bounce-back candidate.

Willy Adames enters the 2024 season as Milwaukee’s starting shortstop, but there’s a chance he doesn’t end the year in a Brewers uniform. He’s set to hit free agency following the season, and Adames could be one of the top trade pieces on the market if the Brewers aren’t in contention at the trade deadline.

With that said, Adames remains a Brewer for the time being, and he’s looking to bounce back from a relatively down year in 2023. He hit just .217 last season and was very poor in the bat-to-ball department, sporting a whiff rate of 31% and posting an out-of-zone swing rate of 31.8%.

However, he was the top run producer on the team last season with 80 RBI, and he led the team in home runs with 24. Even in a down season, he still managed to post a 3.4 fWAR thanks to his power production and outstanding defensive value. Adames has a ton of talent, both at the plate and in the field, and he’ll be one of the more interesting names to monitor as the season progresses.

Third base might be the most interesting position on the roster heading into the season. They could go several directions with the position, but it feels like newcomer Joey Ortiz will get the most work at the hot corner. Ortiz is a talented defender who should be in the lineup as much as possible for the Brewers, and third could be his temporary home until he takes the reins at shortstop.

Last season with Triple-A Norfolk, Ortiz slashed .321/.378/507 with a .388 wOBA and a 121 wRC+. The year before that, he slashed .346/.400/.567 with a 154 wRC+ while striking out fewer than 15% of the time in 115 plate appearances with the Tides. He was the focal point in the deal that sent Burnes to Baltimore, and he will have a chance to make an impact from the get-go, regardless of what position he plays this season.

Sal Frelick, the club’s standout rookie from a season ago, should also see some run at the hot corner in 2024. Skipper Pat Murphy has claimed that the spring training experiment of playing Frelick at third base is more than just an experiment, and that he could be the team’s top lefty bat at the position. The Brewers have a surplus of outfielders, so this could potentially resolve that issue.

Outfield

There’s a strong possibility that Frelick sees split playing time between the outfield and third base, but it’s yet to be seen what that split will look like. However, if the club does deploy him at the hot corner, it would make the outfield construction a bit more clear.

If Frelick plays at third, this would allow for Christian Yelich to continue his everyday role in left field. Yelich finally returned to All-Star form last season and put up a 4.1 fWAR, which was the best since his 2019 season, and he ended the year with a 122 wRC+ and a strong OPS of .818. He might not be the 40 homer threat that he was a few years back, but Yelich has improved his ability to drive the ball to all fields while still showing flashes of his power.

Jackson Chourio, Just Baseball’s No. 4 prospect, broke camp with the Brewers and is slotted to be the club’s Opening Day center fielder. The 20-year-old will have an opportunity to make an impact from the get-go with the Brewers, and there is a lot of excitement surrounding his 2024 outlook.

Chourio’s defense still needs some work, as his performance in the outfield was a bit suspect at times this spring. For a player of his age with just six Triple-A games under his belt, there will likely be growing pains in his first MLB season. Still, Chourio has the tools to make an impact right away, and the Brewers will see if he can fulfill that development at the big league level.

Unfortunately, Garrett Mitchell has a fracture in his left hand and is expected to start the season on the injured list. It’s a tough break for Mitchell, as he played just 19 games in 2023 due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder. When he’s at full strength, he will be an everyday outfielder for the Brewers. In the meantime, Frelick should see a bit more playing time in the outfield while Mitchell is sidelined.

Mitchell has just 47 big league games played across two seasons, but he has shown flashes of being a foundational outfield piece for the Brewers in that small sample size. The 25-year-old has loads of speed, and he can play quality defense in the outfield. His offensive game is still a work in progress, specifically in the strikeout department, but he should be a big piece of this offense when he returns from the injured list.

Projected Bench

Gary Sanchez (C/DH)/Eric Haase (C), Jake Bauers (1B), Andruw Monasterio (INF), Blake Perkins (OF)/Joey Wiemer (OF)

It will be interesting to see how the Brewers construct their bench heading into Opening Day. As it stands, there’s a good chance they carry three catchers on the roster with how strong of a spring Eric Haase has had.

It’s best to take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but they can be meaningful for players who are competing for a roster spot. In 42 plate appearances, Haase is slashing .378/.452/.784 with a .450 Isolated Power and four homers. Carrying three catchers on the roster would put them in a tight crunch on the bench, but Haase has played well enough this spring to earn a bench spot.

If Haase does not make the roster, Gary Sanchez will enter the season as the team’s backup catcher. Sanchez should also see a lot of playing time as the club’s designated hitter when they face left-handed pitching as well. Last season, Sanchez posted an OPS over 1.000 against southpaws while hitting nine homers in 77 plate appearances. He’ll be a valuable source of power off the bench for Milwaukee.

The Brewers acquired Jake Bauers via trade from the New York Yankees this offseason, and he will serve as the club’s lefty backup to Rhys Hoskins. Bauers posted an 18.7% barrel rate last season (his previous high in a season was seven percent), and he posted career-highs in hard hit rate (48.7%) as well as Isolated Power (.211).

Bauers also put up his worst season in terms of bat-to-ball numbers, however. His strikeout rate ballooned to nearly 35%, which was over a 10% bump from the previous season, and he had the highest whiff rate (33.3%) and the lowest zone contact rate (75.6%) of his career last season.

He’ll serve primarily as a left-handed bench bat who can provide some pop of power when needed, and he may see some run as the team’s designated hitter against right-handed pitching as well.

Andruw Monasterio was a fun story for the Brewers last season. After spending the first nine seasons of his professional career in the minor leagues, he finally cracked a big league roster with the Brewers last season, and he was a valuable bench player for them in the second half of the season. With Owen Miller and Oliver Dunn already being optioned to Triple-A Nashville, Monasterio should start the season as the club’s primary backup infielder.

Joey Wiemer will start the season with Triple-A Nashville, but he will be up on the big league roster at some point this season. He has recently changed some mechanics in his swing, so the Brewers will give him some extra time in the minor leagues to get comfortable with his new swing before calling upon him at the big league level.

That means Blake Perkins will likely make the Brewers’ roster as the club’s backup outfielder on the bench. Perkins has a tremendous amount of speed, as his sprint speed of 30 feet per second was in the 99th percentile last season, and he also put up nine Outs Above Average in just 67 games. His offensive statistics might not fly off the page, but he was a valuable backup outfielder for the Brewers last season and will likely have a similar role in 2024.

Projected Starting Rotation

Milwaukee’s starting rotation went through a complete overhaul this winter. Burnes is now in Baltimore, Houser is in New York, and while the club did reunite with frontline starter Brandon Woodruff, he will not be available to pitch this season after undergoing shoulder surgery this offseason. Those three players combined for 372 vacant innings in the starting rotation.

Heading into the 2024 season, the Brewers’ rotation will consist of some veteran pitchers looking to soak up innings and a plethora of young arms working to carve out a role in the majors.

Following the Corbin Burnes deal, Freddy Peralta now gets a shot at being the ace for the Milwaukee Brewers. Peralta pitched like an ace in the second half of last season: in the 13 starts after the All-Star break, he pitched to a 2.81 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP while striking out batters at an MLB-best 36.3% clip.

However, if he reverts back to the version of himself that pitched to a 4.70 ERA in the first half of last season, this team could be in trouble. He has the ability to pitch like an ace in this league, but he needs to show he can put it together for a full year. The 2024 season will be the perfect opportunity for him to show that he’s ready to take that leap forward.

After turning in a strong 2023 campaign, the Brewers brought back Wade Miley to hold down the middle of the starting rotation. Miley will open the year on the injured list, but when he eventually returns, he slots in as the club’s number two starter behind Peralta and will bring the most experience to the starting rotation.

Newcomer DL Hall is expected to take Miley’s place behind Peralta in the starting rotation to open the season. Hall came over from Baltimore in the Corbin Burnes trade, and he has a massive opportunity to be a major breakout arm for the Brewers this season.

It’s yet to be seen if Hall’s big league future will be in the starting rotation or in the bullpen, but he has the stuff to be an impact player for Milwaukee. He’s one of the most intriguing young arms for the Brewers this season.

Colin Rea is another player that returns to Milwaukee after emerging as an important innings-eater for the Crew last season. Rea doesn’t have an overpowering pitch mix by any means, but he has a wide arsenal that can elude barrels and produce ground balls at an above average rate. Rea had a 4.55 ERA and a 4.90 FIP as a back end starter last season, and now he will have an even bigger role in the rotation in 2024.

The Brewers brought in a pair of veterans to soak up innings at the back of the rotation: Jakob Junis and Joe Ross.

Jakob Junis, 31, signed a one-year deal with the club and is coming off a year in which he had a 3.87 ERA and a 3.74 FIP with the San Francisco Giants. The bulk of his work came out of the bullpen last season, but he has experience as a starter throughout his career and will likely be utilized in both roles this season.

Joe Ross, 30, also signed a one-year deal with the Brewers this winter. He’s returning to big league action after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery back in June of 2022. Ross pitched 14 innings in the minor leagues with San Francisco last season, but he hasn’t made a big league appearance since August of 2021. Ross is looking to rebound with the Brewers and will likely open the season as the team’s number five starter.

Aaron Ashby will open the year with Triple-A Nashville, but his eventual return to the pitching staff will be extremely valuable for both the Brewers and his development. Ashby missed the entire 2023 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last April, so they’re taking precaution with his workload before re-inserting him into the rotation.

Ashby has a promising pitch mix and has shown flashes of becoming a strong starter for the Brewers in his young career. He was on an ascending trajectory prior to going down with the injury, and he’ll look to get back on track with his development this season.

Projected Bullpen

The Brewers had one of the best bullpens in the sport last season, finishing the year second in bullpen era (3.40) and first in Win Probability Added (11.73). Their bullpen played a huge role in the team securing a division title, and they return many of the same names from a year ago heading into the 2024 season.

Milwaukee’s heart and soul of the bullpen, Devin Williams, is set to miss at least the first three months of the season with two stress fractures in his back. It’s obviously an enormous loss for this bullpen and a devastating blow for this ball club. Williams is one of, if not the best closer in baseball, and it will be nearly impossible to replace his production out of the bullpen.

Fortunately for the Brewers, they have a deep group of viable relievers who are capable of closing out games. Whether they implement a closer-by-committee approach or pick a player and roll with him is yet to be seen, but there are a handful of options to fill Williams’ shoes while he is on the shelf.

Interim Closer Candidates

Abner Uribe

Of the potential candidates to replace Williams as the primary closer, Abner Uribe has by far the most electric stuff. Last season, Uribe had a Stuff+ of 139, and that was not only the best among their relievers, but it was the best amongst the entire pitching staff.

He features a fastball that sits 99 MPH that is coupled with a slider that generated a whiff rate of 58.1% in the big leagues last season. In his 30.2 major league innings, Uribe struck out 30.7% of batters and had a K/9 of 11.45. Uribe has flashed dominating stuff throughout every stop of his professional career, but his arsenal comes with sever command issues.

He walked nearly 16% of batters in the big leagues last season, and control issues plagued him throughout the minors as well. Throughout each stop in the minor leagues, Uribe failed to post a walk rate below 13.2%. Additionally, Uribe had the worst Location+ on the pitching staff last season at 93.

Uribe might have the most dominant arsenal in the bullpen, but he also has the worst command amongst their relievers. The 23-year-old flamethrower will look to take a step forward in his sophomore season and will have a key piece in the bullpen, regardless of what that role ends up being.

Trevor Megill

At 6-foot-8, Megill towers over the mound and has a devastating arsenal of his own. Also sitting 99 MPH with his fastball, Megill had the second-best Stuff+ in the bullpen last year at 122. In his 34.2 big league innings, he led the entire pitching staff in K/9 (13.50) while striking out 35.1% of batters.

On top of his impressive fastball, he has a curveball that produced a whiff rate of 53.5% last season. He ended the year with an ERA of 3.63, but his expected stats were even more encouraging that, including a FIP of just 2.13.

He has the stuff to be an effective full-time closer, and he demonstrates better command than Uribe. There’s a good chance he emerges as Williams’ top replacement due to his upside and more palatable risk in the walks department.

Joel Payamps

Of the three potential candidates to replace Williams, Paymps is the safest, but least exciting of the bunch.

The 2023 season was easily the best of Payamps’ career. He posted a 2.55 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, which were both the best marks of his career, and he did it in the largest workload of his career (70.2 innings). What’s more, Payamps excelled in multiple areas. He was in the top-10 percent of baseball in barrel rate (4.8%), he generated ground balls at a well-above-average rate (47.6%), and he was in the 75th percentile in strikeout rate at 26.8%.

That said, there is always the risk that last season was an outlier for Payamps, as he vastly out-performed the numbers from his previous five seasons. He also faded in the final months of the season last year, posting an ERA of 5.79 and a 1.82 WHIP in the month of September.

In terms of stuff, Payamps is behind Megill and Uribe. However, he has better command than both of those two players. Whichever reliever the Brewers call upon could come down to their appetite for risk on that given night. Each of the three pitchers have their strengths, and the closer role could greatly depend on the flow of the game while Williams is unavailable.

The Rest of the Bunch

Hoby Milner has been outstanding for the Brewers over the last two seasons. Milner has been continuously thrown into high leverage situations for Milwaukee, and the southpaw has continued to deliver. Milner’s unique deliver combined with great command of his diverse pitch mix has made him a very effective reliever. He will continue to be utilized as the club’s high leverage lefty this season.

Bryse Wilson was one of the Brewers’ most valuable pitchers in 2023, and he will have a very similar role this season. He’s a versatile arm who can be used as a long reliever or as a high leverage arm when needed. He ended the 2023 season with a 2.58 ERA in 76.2 innings pitched, and he’ll likely be another bulk innings pitcher for the Brewers this season.

Elvis Peguero took a major step forward last season, and he eventually became the club’s primary seventh inning reliever down the stretch. On top of generating a whopping 56% ground ball rate, Peguero had a barrel rate of just three percent, which was in the 97th percentile. The 27-year-old is coming off a career-high in innings pitched, and he will look to build upon his breakout season in 2024.

Prospects to Watch

Robert Gasser – LHP

Robert Gasser will be starting the 2024 season in the minor leagues, but skipper Pat Murphy indicated that it shouldn’t be long before we see Gasser at the big league level. Murphy spoke with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel a few weeks back, stating “I think you’re going to see Gasser early.”

He specifically referenced Milwaukee’s back-to-back 13 game stretches in the month of April as a potential timeline for when we could see Gasser crack the big leagues. With the rotation looking rather bleak heading into the season, Gasser will have an opportunity to make an impact for the Brewers and claim a back end rotation spot in the early goings of the year.

Jeferson Quero – C

The Brewers have a bright future when it comes to their backstop position. Jeferson Quero, Milwaukee’s No. 2 prospect, is evolving into one of the top catching prospects in the game, and he could be the backstop of the future in Milwaukee.

Quero has plenty of defensive talent, as he secured a 2023 Minor League Gold Glove Award last season. He has some room for improvement with the bat, but at just 21 years old, he has plenty of offensive upside. Quero played 90 games in Double-A last season, and he launched 16 homers while walking 10% of the time and limited his strikeout rate to just 17.8%.

It’s yet to be seen how aggressive they’ll be with Quero, but there is a chance he makes an appearances in the majors this season.

Tyler Black – 3B

In all likelihood, Tyler Black will make his MLB debut at some point in 2024. Black could play at the hot corner, or he could be a lefty option behind Hoskins at first base. Wherever he ends up, he has the tools to make an impact right away.

In 173 plate appearances with Triple-A Nashville last season, Black hit over .300 while walking more than he struck out. On top of his solid approach, he has shown flashes of power as well. Across 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Black hit 25 doubles, 12 triples, and 18 homers.

Combine his impressive offensive production with the fact that he stole 55 bases last season, and Black could be a contributor for Milwaukee. His defense has room for improvement, but his bat would serve as a nice boost to their offense.

Jacob Misiorowski – RHP

Jacob Misiorowski was Milwaukee’s second round draft choice back in 2022, and he has quickly flown through the minor leagues with his electric arsenal.

Featuring a fastball that can touch 102 MPH, Misiorowski is a strikeout artist with some extremely exciting upside. In 21 innings at Double-A last season, he posted a K/9 of 15.43 while striking out 33.6% of batters. Misiorowski also comes with a lot of command issues, however, as is illustrated by his 6.86 BB/9 and 15% walk rate in Double-A last season.

He certainly has room for improvement, specifically in the control department, but his potential is sky-high. Misiorowski could make his debut as soon as this season, and he’s an arm Brewers fans should be clamoring to see.

Carlos F. Rodriguez – RHP

The Brewers have plenty of pitchers in the pipeline who are close to big league ready, and Carlos Rodriguez is another one of those arms that could contribute at the back of the rotation in 2024.

Rodriguez, 22, turned in a successful season with Double-A Biloxi last season. He pitched to a 2.77 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of batters across 123.2 innings, and that level of production earned him a late-season promotion to Triple-A.

Rodriguez doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has a strong changeup that can be effective in the big leagues. He’ll continue his development in Triple-A to start the season as he refines his pitch mix, but there’s a strong chance we see Rodriguez in a starter role at some point this summer.

2024 Season Outlook

The Brewers have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball over the past handful of years. For the better part of the last decade, they have been persistent playoff contenders, despite being one of the smallest markets in baseball.

However, if the Brewers wish to defend their division crown in 2024, they’re going to have to do it in a much different way than they’re used to.

Over the course of a single offseason, their starting rotation went from being the team’s biggest strength to being the roster’s weakest link. The rotation will feature a combination of veterans working to soak up innings and a handful of young arms looking to establish themselves at the big league level.

It will be a big developmental year for many of their young pitchers. It will sting to not have Burnes anchoring the top of the rotation, but there is plenty of intrigue when it comes to this group of starters.

From an offensive perspective, the Brewers have a lot to work with. They’re establishing a core of young players to build around, and they will look for a handful of them to take a step forward and become focal points of the offense moving forward.

All in all, the Brewers will need a lot to go their way in order to repeat their success from a season ago. However, anything can happen in an NL Central division that is completely up for grabs, and this team could surprise if things click for their young starters.

It’s the start of a new era of baseball in Milwaukee, and Brewers fans have plenty to be excited about heading into the 2024 season.